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My thoughts in the latest. Gore (2006) “An inconvenient truth: The planetary emergency of global warming and what we can do about it”. 薄い大気: ( 鉛直 ) / ( 水平 ) ~ 10km/10000km = 0.001. The atmosphere is not well mixed.

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My thoughts in the latest

My thoughtsin the latest


My thoughts in the latest

Gore (2006)

“An inconvenient truth:

The planetary emergency of global warming and what we can do about it”

薄い大気:

(鉛直) / (水平)

~ 10km/10000km = 0.001


The atmosphere is not well mixed

The atmosphere is not well mixed

  • All atmospheric constituents with finite life times are transported from their source regions to sink regions

  • Transport in large scales is done by coherent motions associated with lots of meteorological phenomena

  • Vertical stratification due to gravity causes anisotropic transport

  • Chemical reactions and phase transitions are done in molecular scales

  • Turbulent mixing is important to fill the scale gap


My thoughts in the latest

~気温

~雪氷

  • 過去650,000年では ?

[x1000 year]

IPCC (2007; Fig. 6.3)


Correlations in time series do not tell causality

Correlations in time-series do not tell causality

  • Both detection (observational facts) and attribution (scientific understandings) are important

  • Time variations take place in an open Earth system (F-D sys.)

  • Time variation consists of autonomous internal variations and response variations to external forcings

  • There are multiple time scales of periodic forcings from diurnal cycle, …. to Milanković

  • Time scale is basically determined by momentum, thermal, or chemical inertia of the corresponding subsystem


Return to the agenda

Return to the agenda


My thoughts in the latest

17th Session of WCRP/SPARC SSG

26-30 October 2009

Kyoto Univ., Japan

3.3

Stratosphere-Troposphere Dynamical Coupling

Shigeo Yoden

Kyoto Univ.


1 a japanese research project for fy2008 2011

1. A Japanese research project for FY2008 - 2011

Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

“Assessment of the Stratospheric Effects on Climate Change

and Elucidation of the Dynamical Role”

PI : Shigeo YODEN (Kyoto Univ.)

Co-I :

T. Hirooka, T. Horinouchi,

K. Ishioka, K. Kodera,

H. Mukougawa, Y. Naito,

K. Shibata, and M. Taguchi

  • Main dynamical processes

  • in the general circulation of the atmosphere,

  • which we are interested in this project


My thoughts in the latest

Research group


2 some key points on s t dynamical coupling

2. Some key points on S-T dynamical coupling

  • internal variation vs. response to external forcing

    • stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events

    • solar cycle modulation, intermittent volcanic eruptions

  • multiple time scales

    • winter polar region

      • SSW ~ days

      • NAM/SAM, PJO ~ months

      • seasonal march

      • interannual variations, trends

  • downward propagation of

    information

    • wave propagations

      • “top” boundary condition, reflection

      • wave-mean flow interaction

    • mean meridional circulation

  • amplification mechanism

    • resonance of wave ?

    • stochastic resonance ?

    • ???

Baldwin and Dunkerton (2001)


My thoughts in the latest

Combined effects of QBO and 11-year solar cycle on the winter hemisphere in a stratosphere-troposphere coupled system

  • We performed parameter sweep experiments to study the sensitivity and use a large sample method for significance test

    Influence of solar cycle modulations in W or E phase of QBO

    difference of [T ] in (K) between Solar Max run and Solar Min run

K. Ito, Y. Naito, and S. Yoden (2009, GRL )

significance test

Warm

Cold

>95%

>80%

>95%

>80%


My thoughts in the latest

Frequency distribution of time-mean zonal-mean temperature

Solar Max runs and Solar Min runs in W or E phase of QBO

  • [T ] changes in the winter pole caused by solar heating anomaly

    around the stratopause are consistent with Labitzke relationship

  • However, the difference is much smaller than that caused by the QBO with heavy overlapping of the PDFs


My thoughts in the latest

Impact of the stratospheric sudden warming in the tropical troposphere

K. Kodera, N. Eguchi, and T. Ichimaru

0 C

T10NP

<80N-90N>

-40

-80

-61 C

T50EQ

<20S-20N>

-67

E

W

W

-73

2009

2006

2007

2008

2009 January major warming has a huge impact on the tropical stratosphere


My thoughts in the latest

(III) 24-30 Jan

(II) 16-22 Jan

(I) 8-14 Jan

U, EPF

Zonaly averaged ω

30

100

300

1000

40N

40S

EQ

40S

EQ

40N

40S

EQ

40N


Composite o3 evolution during ssw sco 3 0

Impacts of SSW and VI on O3

Composite O3 (%) evolution during SSW (SCO < -3.0)

K. SHibata

30 events in 5-member simulation (MRI-CCM) for 1980-2004

40S20SEQ20N40N

10+0

10+1

P

10+2

0

0

0

0

+40

+40

+40

+40

-40

-40

-40

-40

10+3

-40

0

+40

T (days)


Vi o3 evolution in nh

VI O3 (%) evolution in NH

Composite O3 (%) evolution during VI (SCO > +2.5)

36 events in 5-member simulation (MRI-CCM) for 1980-2004

40S20SEQ20N40N

10+0

10+1

P

10+2

+40

+40

+40

+40

+40

0

0

0

0

0

-40

-40

-40

-40

-40

10+3

T (days)


My thoughts in the latest

Influence of ENSO toTropical/Subtropical Wave Driving (WD) in WACCM Masakazu Taguchi (Aichi Univ. of Education)

(1) ENSO influence in WACCM

  • We compare 2 perpetual JAN runs, each 3650 days long: one for La Nina and the other for El Nino SST conditions.

  • We make a diagnostic analysis based on TEM equations.

  • Taguchi (2009, JAS, accepted)

Mean changes: El Nino - La Nina

[T]

[U]

BDC

EPF

In tropical lower stratos., cooling, increased poleward upward/ flow, and increased WD occur for El Nino.

Increased WD by stationary waves including eq. Rossby waves


My thoughts in the latest

A numerical study of upward-propagating gravity waves in two different MJO phasesHorinouchi (2008, GRL )

High frequency components of w’

Inactive phase of MJO Active phase of MJO


My thoughts in the latest

Influence of Stratospheric Circulation on the Predictability of the tropospheric NAM H. Mukougawa, T. Hirooka and Y. Kuroda (2009, GRL )

  • We study influence of stratospheric NAM variations to the forecast skill of tropospheric NAM index by using 5-winter (2001/02-2005/06; DJF) archive of the JMA 1-month ensemble forecast dataset.

  • Prediction skill of ensemble-mean NAM index in the upper troposphere is significantly improved for 5- to 13-day forecast when negatively large NAM indices are observed (weak westerly winds) around 30hPa at the initial time in comparison with stratospheric positive NAM events.

Mean Square Error (MSE) of 250-hPa NAM index

Classified by 30-hPa NAM

NAM < -1

NAM >+1

-1<NAM<+1

significance test

heavy shade > 99.9 %

shallow shade > 99 %

lead time (days)


My thoughts in the latest

Predictability limits of stratospheric circulation

T.Hirooka (Kyushu Univ.)

On the basis of RMSE and AC analyses of JMA one-month forecasts in the stratosphere, the predictability of stratospheric circulations in the NH winter during 2001-2006 is investigated.

Small amp

Small amp

AC

Large amp

Small amp

Predictability (days)

RMSE

Predictability (days)


My thoughts in the latest

and more ……


For your information

For your information


The xxv iugg general assembly in 2011

the XXV IUGG General Assembly in 2011

Earth on the Edge: Science for a Sustainable Planet28 June - 7 July 2011Melbourne, Australia


Symposia proposed or co sponsored by icma

Symposia proposed or co-sponsored by ICMA

  • UNION Symposium (IAGA, IAMAS, SCOSTEP, … )

    “Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System – CAWSES-II”

    A. Rodger (British Antarctic Survey), D. Marsh (NCAR), …

  • ICMA sponsored Symposia

    “Middle Atmosphere Science”

    S. Yoden (Kyoto Univ.), B. Funke (CSIC), D. Murphy (AAD), T. Horinouchi (Hokkaido Univ.)

    “The Impact of Solar Variability on Earth”

    U. Langematz (Free Univ. Berllin), W. Schmutz (PMOD/WRC), L. Hood (Univ. Arizona), V. Fomichev (York Univ.), J.D. Haigh (Imperial College), T. Woods (Univ. of Colorado)

    “Chemistry-Climate Interactions”

    L. Pan (NCAR), G. Bodeker (New Zealand), J. Burrows (Univ. Bremen),

    Y. Kondo (Univ. Tokyo), E. Rozanov (PMOD/WRC)

    “Stratosphere-Troposphere-Ocean Coupling in Weather and Climate”

     E. Manzini (INGV-CMCC), J. Alexander (NWRA)


My thoughts in the latest

  • ICMA-SPARC joint symposium

    “Stratospheric Processes and Their Role in Climate Focussed on the Southern Hemisphere”

    G. Bodeker (New Zealand), K. Pienaar (Potchefstroom Univ.)

  • IAMAS-IAGA joint symposium

     “External Forcing on the Middle Atmosphere and Lower Ionosphere” 

    A. Krivolutsky (Central Aerological Observatory), J. Lastovichka (Inst. of Atmos. Phys.)


My thoughts in the latest

Thanks !


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