Emerging Urban Transformations
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Emerging Urban Transformations Canterbury Christ Church University  August 14-20, 2011. IGU Canterbury Meeting Urban Geography Commission. URBAN DYNAMICS AND REAL-ESTATE SPECULATION: THE IMPACT ON THE URBAN AREAS OF THE ATLANTIC AXIS (GALICIA,SPAIN). Alejandro López-González

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Emerging Urban Transformations

Canterbury Christ Church University 

August 14-20, 2011

IGU Canterbury Meeting

Urban Geography Commission

URBAN DYNAMICS AND REAL-ESTATE SPECULATION: THE IMPACT ON THE URBAN AREAS OF THE ATLANTIC AXIS (GALICIA,SPAIN).

Alejandro López-González

University of Leon (Spain)

[email protected]

Maria-José Piñeira-Mantiñán

University of Santiago de Compostela (Spain)

[email protected]

Project: System of indicators for the analysis of metropolitan and urban dynamics in Spain at the beginning of XXI Century.

Ministry of Science and Technology (CSO2010-16298)


The context in spain
Thecontext in Spain

  • Real estate market =one of the principal vehicles of capital accumulation of neoliberal town planning.

  • 1997-2006 : 5.5 millions of houses.

  • Annual ratio during ten years of 13.3 houses for every 1,000 inhabitants.

  • Autonomous Regions: Laws by the System of Landand Urban Arrangement, & Territorial Plans.

    • Plans are useless

    • The most important: benefits generated by construction activity.


The resoult
Theresoult...

  • In thebackground:

    • Town-planning politics: entire space was building land. In Galicia: rural building land .

    • Companies are those who control and use the public administrations for their own benefit.

    • The building land was bought by financial institutions.

    • The healthy economic situation of the country and low interest rates encouraged the purchase of apartments by the population.

    • Important changes in infrastructure, transport, and information technologies and communication.

    • Citizens have not taken part in the design of the city.


Housing market in galicia
HousingMarket in Galicia

Percentage of stock over total stock by Autonomous Community


  • Method & Sources

  • Prices: values of use and change

  • Quantities: three series of flow information

    • Housing censuses

    • Work project starts-Home visas.

    • Work licenses

    • Housing transactions

Main urban cities

Small cities

Main High Capacity Roads


T: number of transactions

L: housings as a consequence of work licenses granted

V: Home Visas

K: the delays (that can acquire the value 0 if both series are simultaneous, 1 if the explanatory variable precedes by one year the explained one and 2 if the delay is two years)

in a municipality i and in one year t

Relation Licenses-Transactions. R2 (2004-2010):

0.379-0.741 when K=0

0.309-0.823 when K=1

0.525-0.915 when K=2

Relation Licenses-Work project Starts. R2 (2002-2010):

0.631-0.870 when K=0

0.435-0.852 when K=1

0.201-0.742 when K=2


The dynamism of the urban areas in the atlantic axis
The analysisdynamism of theurbanareas in theAtlantic Axis

Evolution of housing starts, work licenses and housing transactions


Efficiency of the housing market
Efficiency of the housing market analysis

T: housing transactions during the current year

L: the work licenses conceded two years ago.

The results are always higher than 0, reaching a situation of equilibrium when the efficiency rate is equal to 1


Thank you

Emerging Urban Transformations analysis

Canterbury Christ Church University 

August 14-20, 2011

IGU Canterbury Meeting

Urban Geography Commission

Thank You


(…)The analysisstreets, named names of painters, are littered with gleaming banks where no one sits down and traffic signals that require yield. Who? The only sign of life are ubiquitous posters for sale. They hang on every front and has not put the builder, but their buyers (…)


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