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Scenario Planning

Scenario Planning. Introduction & Guidelines For LULCC Workshop June 20, 2014. Outline. What is scenario planning? Why and when to use scenario planning? Overview of the scenario planning process. What is scenario planning?. A way of thinking about the future

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Scenario Planning

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  1. Scenario Planning Introduction & Guidelines For LULCC Workshop June 20, 2014

  2. Outline • What is scenario planning? • Why and when to use scenario planning? • Overview of the scenario planning process

  3. What is scenario planning? • A way of thinking about the future • A tool to develop and test management strategies/decisions under a range of plausible futures • NOT a tool to predict the probable future • A “rehearsal” for the future

  4. Why scenario planning? What we don’t know we don’t know Scenarios work here What we know we don’t know What we know Based on a slide by The Scenario Planning Institute, 2013

  5. When to use scenario planning? From Peterson et al. 2003

  6. 1. Develop focal question • What is the question that scenario planning will help you think about? • Example: How can Mongolian pastoral systems adapt to a changing climate?

  7. 2. Identify key factors • What are all the factors that affect your focal question? Adapted from The Scenario Planning Institute, 2013

  8. 2.2 Rank key factors by impact • Which factors have the biggest impact? High Low IMPACT Adapted from The Scenario Planning Institute, 2013

  9. 3. Rank key factors by relative uncertainty High UNCERTAINTY Low High IMPACT Low Adapted from The Scenario Planning Institute, 2013

  10. 4. ID Critical Uncertainties High UNCERTAINTY Low High IMPACT Low Adapted from The Scenario Planning Institute, 2013

  11. 5. Develop Scenarios High High Low Low Adapted from The Scenario Planning Institute, 2013

  12. Scenario Plan example From Weeks et al. 2011

  13. Water Development Cottonwood Russian Olive Slight Climate Change Extreme Climate Change Colorado Blue Spruce Ponderosa Pine Water Conservation

  14. 6. Wind Tunneling High High Low Low Adapted from The Scenario Planning Institute, 2013

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