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CARICOF PRESENTATION

CARICOF PRESENTATION. By Rosalind Blenman Barbados. Experiment 1. RAINFALL FOR BARBADOS FOR THE SEASON DEC- FEB, 2014/15 Model used: Climate Predictability Tool (CPT)

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CARICOF PRESENTATION

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  1. CARICOF PRESENTATION By Rosalind Blenman Barbados

  2. Experiment 1 • RAINFALL FOR BARBADOS FOR THE SEASON DEC- FEB, 2014/15 • Model used: Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) • 1.To produce this forecast observed SSTs across the Tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans for the month of October were used (1982-2014) • 2. Monthly rainfall data for 2 weather stations in Barbados, CIMH and Grantley Adams.(1982 – 2014)

  3. O ROC RANGE: 0.6 – 0.9

  4. You can trust the model 75% of the time to predict above normal and below normal rainfall for DJF correctly.

  5. CIMH GAIA

  6. For both stations there is a tendency for normal rainfall for the season DJF. (Highest probability values) • The forecasted rainfall amounts at CIMH and GAIA are expected to be 178mm and 197mm respectively.

  7. Experiment 2 • TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR BARBADOS FOR THE SEASON DEC- FEB, 2014/15 • 1.To produce this forecast observed SSTs across the Tropical Atlantic and Pacific Ocean for the month of October were used (1982 – 2014). • 2. Average Dry Bulb Monthly Temperatures for GAIA ( Jan 1982 - Oct )

  8. The model can be trusted 90% of the time to predict above and below normal temperatures for the months DJF.

  9. 77% chance that the temperatures for the season DJF will be above normal. • The average forecasted temperature for that season is 27 degrees celcius.

  10. Experiment 3 • Will there be Drought during the upcoming dry season? • 1.To produce this forecast observed SSTs across the Tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans for the month of October were used. • 2. Monthly rainfall data for 2 weather stations in Barbados, CIMH and Grantley Adams.(1982 – 2014) • Focused on the below normal rainfall charts only and tailor the model

  11. There is a 40% chance of a moderate to severe drought occurring in the upcoming dry season (Dec-May).

  12. Thank You !!!!

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