WCRP polar climate predictability initiative. Vladimir Ryabinin www.wcrp-climate.org. A notable gap was that between scientific communities, as most people knew only a small minority of the other participants.
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WCRP polar climate predictability initiative
A notable gap was that between scientific communities, as most people knew only a small minority of the other participants.
…it seems apparent that progress in polar predictability will require crossing disciplinary boundaries to understand the feedbacks between the troposphere and the stratosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice
(J. Cohen, 2011)
Seasonal Forecast from AER(Atmospheric & Environmental Research)
Role of snow cover
Snow Forced Signal
J. Cohen, 20…
Multiple feedbacks involving sea ice
-- > “Warm AO – cold continents”
Role of Sea Ice
Correlation between wintertime Arctic sea ice area and SATs
Annual mean Arctic sea ice area anomalies and oceanic volume flux (upper 125 m)through Spitzbergen-Norway meridional (about 20E) cross-section
r = - 0.77
(Boer & Lambert)
Decadal: forced change + natural variability
Climate Predictions and Projections
Coupled Model Intercomparison Experiment 5 – CMIP5 IPCC AR5
Climate-system Historical Forecast Project - CHFP
Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment – CORDEX IPCC AR5
WCRP polar climate predictability initiative & WWRP Polar Prediction Research Project: commons