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Real Estate Forecast What’s in store for us this year? March 18, 2014

Real Estate Forecast What’s in store for us this year? March 18, 2014. Welcome Thomas Francl, MBA, CNE , CMA Associate Faculty School of Business and Management. Introduction Dr. Michael R. Cunningham President, National University Chancellor, National University System. Guest Speaker

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Real Estate Forecast What’s in store for us this year? March 18, 2014

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  1. Real Estate Forecast What’s in store for us this year? March 18, 2014

  2. Welcome Thomas Francl, MBA, CNE, CMA Associate Faculty School of Business and Management

  3. Introduction Dr. Michael R. Cunningham President, National University Chancellor, National University System

  4. Guest Speaker Alan Nevin Director of Economic and Market Research Xpera Group

  5. Alan Nevin Xpera GroupConsultants to the Development, Legal, Investment and Estate Planning Industries UP The Next 5 Years (619) 417-1817 anevin@xperagroup.com

  6. “The situation is hopeless, but not serious.”Count Leopold Bercktold - 1912

  7. Change in Gross Domestic Product United States 1988-2013 Bureauof Economic Analysis

  8. Lehman Bros. Collapse Torrey Pines Bank

  9. Source:U.S Department of Labor Torrey Pines Bank

  10. THE FUTURE OF AMERICA Economic Strength Ratings by State Where the Action is Where the Action isn’t

  11. Population Change – U.S. – 1980-2010 – 62 Million People

  12. THE WINNERS AND LOSERSEMPLOYMENT GAINS • December 2012 – december 2013 • The States % of All Job Gains • Top 15 73.0% • Bottom 15 4.3% • Bureau of Labor Statistics

  13. New Jobs Created in California2009-2013 Torrey Pines Bank

  14. Demography is our Destiny United States • This past year, 1.15 million households were formed in the United States (twice the previous year). • 6.5 million persons doubled up during the recession. • 2.2 million people got divorced. • 2.2 million people got married.

  15. Do you sense the air is different in the Silicon Valley? “There’s an enormous rejection of constraints.” An interview with Larry Summers in Fortune Magazine

  16. NEVINOMICS 101: The Basics of Employment Basic Jobs (Economic Drivers) (1/3rd of All Jobs) Definition: Jobs whose source of revenues come from outside the metropolitan area Support Jobs (2/3rds of All Jobs) ½ are jobs that serve businesses ½ are jobs that serve consumers

  17. NEVIN ECONOMICS 101: • Great Basic Jobs in California • Military • Tourism • Manufacturing • Import/Export • High Tech • Universities • Retirees • Federal and State Government

  18. Now let’s talk real estate!

  19. Now, here’s the 2014 forecast

  20. California- 2014 NevinomicsForecast • Population growth will continue at 300,000+ • New jobs will total more than 250,000 • 75,000 new housing units will be permitted

  21. There will be 400,000 single family homes resold • Condo conversions will return, a little • Foreclosures and short sales will reach new lows. • Interest rates will remain low, Very low. • Home prices will increase 8-10%

  22. Xpera Group -- the West Coast’s largest source of experts in construction and real estate. • Expert Witness Services • Market Studies • Construction Quality Assurance • Construction Management Alan N. Nevin Director, Economic and Market Research (619) 417-1817 anevin@xperagroup.com

  23. Next Event: May 20, 2014 Ron Roberts Supervisor, San Diego County Register at: www.NU.edu/SOBM-Events

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