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Evaluating the Creation of a Parallel Non-Oil Transportation System PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Evaluating the Creation of a Parallel Non-Oil Transportation System. Alan Drake, Andrea M. Bassi January 30, 2009 New America Foundation. The Millennium Institute. MI is a not for profit organization based in Arlington VA, USA.

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Evaluating the Creation of a Parallel Non-Oil Transportation System

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Evaluating the Creation of a Parallel Non-Oil Transportation System

Alan Drake,

Andrea M. Bassi January 30, 2009

New America Foundation


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The Millennium Institute

  • MI is a not for profit organization based in Arlington VA, USA.

    • Established in 1983, MI has assisted over 45 countries to prepare strategic studies of sustainable development possibilities.

  • MI develops and disseminates advanced analytical tools to support strategic planning on critical issues.

  • MI builds capacity in countries to use our tools to help address critical issues.


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Three Policy Changes

  • Renewable Energy

  • Urban Rail and related

    Transportation Orientated Development

  • Expand, Improve and Electrify Freight Railroads


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2030

vs. Business As Usual

  • GDP: +13%

  • CO2: -38%

  • Oil Consumption: -24%

  • Employment: +7.2 million (+5.2%)

    2030 is NOT year of maximum impact


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2030

vs. BAU

  • GDP: +11.8%

  • CO2: -3.8%

  • Oil Consumption: -27.6%

  • Employment: +6.7 million (+4.7%)

    Subtract Renewable Energy


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2030

vs. BAU

  • GDP: +9.7%

  • CO2: -6.2%

  • Oil Consumption: -22%

  • Employment: +5.5 million (+3.8%)

    ONLY Electrified and Expanded Freight Rail


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Maximum Commercial EffortAssumed

  • Maximum Production or Construction that money alone can motivate

  • Less than War Time Effort - People will do more when national survival is at stake

  • Alberta Tar Sands Development was an example until a few months ago


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MaximumCommercialEffort

  • Electrify 36,000 miles of mainline railroads in7 years, Add HV AC & HV DC transmission

  • Doubletrack and improve mainline Railroads

  • Remove bottlenecks like CREATE

  • Electrify another 36,000 miles by 2030

  • $250 - $300 billion

  • 14,000 miles of Semi-HSR - $250 billion

  • Urban Rail - $60 billion/yr for 20 years

  • Wind, Solar PV and Pumped Storage - see ACORE

  • Encourage Bicycling and Walkable Neighborhoods


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Historical Accomplishments

  • During WW II, National & Military Policy was to ship everything possible by rail to save oil, rubber and trucks for the war effort

  • 90% of ton-miles by rail, rest by truck, barge and pipeline during WW II

  • Our goal is, over 20 years, to shift 85% of truck ton-miles to rail


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Strategically Relevant US Railroads


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Railroad Electrification Proposals of the 1970s


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?


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Economics of Rail Electrification

20 BTUs Diesel > 1 BTU Electricity

Freight 17 to 21:1 ratio

Urban Rail, Indirect > Direct Savings

Consider DC without Metro today

Positive Cost Elasticity of Supply for Rail

Negative Cost Elasticity of Supply for Roads

Domestic Electricity instead of Imported Oil


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Electrical Consumption for Transportation

  • USA: 0.19%

  • France: 2.3%

  • USA 2030: ~4% (Without considering EVs)

    EVs - 17% for personal transport


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Longer Term Impacts and Systems AnalysisChallenges and Opportunities


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SideEffects: Feedback Loops (1)Relative GDP and Emissions

GDP

CO2 Emissions

Freight Scenario

Freight + Renewable Energy

Scenario


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SideEffects: Feedback Loops(2)Relative GDP and Emissions

GDP

CO2 Emissions

Freight

Freight + Renewable Energy


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Side Effects:Tradeoffs (3)Relative Oil Consumption

Renewable Energy generation increases average electricity prices and limits the reduction in oil consumption

Freight + Renewable Energy

Freight Scenario

Low electricity prices stimulate the adoption of e.g. hybrid vehicles


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Conclusions

  • There is no silver bullet to today’s problems;

  • Electrified rail, especially when coupled with renewable energy, is a good option;

  • Side effects and unintended consequences may arise and lead the system into unwanted and uncharted territories;

  • Identifying potential threats early enough, allows to turn them into opportunities.


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Thankyouforyourattention

For more information please visit:

www.millennium-institute.org

Or send an email to:

[email protected]


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