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High Resolution Assimilation of Radar Data for Thunderstorm Forecasting on OSCER . Keith A. Brewster, Kevin W. Thomas, Jerry Brotzge, Yunheng Wang, Dan Weber and Ming Xue CAPS and School of Meteorology University of Oklahoma 2007 OSCER Supercomputing Symposium Norman, Oklahoma, October, 2007.

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high resolution assimilation of radar data for thunderstorm forecasting on oscer

High Resolution Assimilation of Radar Data for Thunderstorm Forecasting on OSCER

Keith A. Brewster, Kevin W. Thomas, Jerry Brotzge, Yunheng Wang, Dan Weber and Ming Xue

CAPS and School of MeteorologyUniversity of Oklahoma

2007 OSCER Supercomputing Symposium

Norman, Oklahoma, October, 2007

casa nexrad radars
CASA & NEXRAD Radars
  • CASA NetRadNSF ERC: Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of Atmosphere
    • X-Band Dual-Polarization Radars
    • 30 km nominal range
    • Dual-Pol attenuation correction
    • Clutter filter
    • Collaborative, Adaptive Scanning
    • Fill-in below coverage of NEXRAD
    • Toward phased-array panels – low-cost!
  • NEXRAD
    • S-Band Radars
    • Current Weather Service Operational Radars
    • 14 covering domain
    • Data used out to 230 km
casa netrad ip1
CASA NetRad IP1

Southwest Oklahoma

near real time nwp runs
Near Real-Time NWP Runs
  • Four Runs in Near Real-time
  • 9 Weeks in Spring 2007
  • 6-hour 1-km resolution forecasts
  • Use Reflectivity
  • ARPS Model
  • ADAS Analysis with cloud analysis and latent heat adjustment
  • Run on Parallel Linux Boxes OU OSCER (150 proc/2 runs at a time)
  • Hourly output graphics posted to web: http://www.caps.ou.edu/wx/casa
forecast domain
Forecast Domain

Dx = 1 km

nx=603

ny=543

nz=53

assimilation strategy
Assimilation Strategy

40-min Assimilation

5.5-hour Forecast

IAU

IAU

IAU

IAU

2150

2200

2210

2220

2230

00

01

02

03

04

Forecast Model started manually when storms enter the network

or with initial development within the network

computing networking
Computing - Networking

CASA SOCC

CASA Radars

NFS

IDD (Internet)

CAPS Ingest Cluster

OSCERTop DawgHPC

IDD (Internet)

NexRad Radars

Other WeatherObservations

Internet

CAPS Webserver

DataFile Archive

Other NumericalWeather Model Data

computing number crunching
Computing – Number Crunching

TopDawgTotal 1024 processorsPentium4 Xeon EM64T 3.2 GHzGigE Network (976 Mbps, latency 9 ms)

ARPS Analysis/Forecast150 processors per job (75 nodes)4 forecasts, 2 jobs run at a timeHorizontal Domain Decomposition, MPICH2 15x10 processors6 - 6.5 h wall for each forecast1 - 1.5 h wall for data processing and analysis~50 GB of data each day created for archive

summary of 2007 cases
Summary of 2007 Cases
  • 21 Sets of Runs for 20 Cases
  • Weather Summary:
    • With Funnels and/or Tornadoes (2)
    • Squall Lines (8)
    • Clusters of Cells or Individual Cells (6)
    • Broken Lines and/or Cells on Boundaries (5)
    • Precip Area with Synoptic Scale Low (1)
  • Some developing, some intensifying, decaying
  • Wide Range of Time-of-Day
sample impact of casa netrad data
Sample Impact of CASA NetRad Data

ADAS Analysis of

Hydrometeors

Converted to Reflect

Hgt=~250 m AGL

NEXRAD Only

NetRad & NEXRAD

cross section
Cross-Section

NEXRAD & NetRad

NEXRAD Only

NetRad Low-Level Info

40 min end of assimilation period
40 min - End of Assimilation Period

ReflectivityAll Radars

Refl + VrAll Radars

KTLX (Verif)

40 min end of assimilation period1
40 min - End of Assimilation Period

ReflectivityAll Radars

Refl + VrAll Radars

KTLX (Verif)

Stronger Vort

Improved Refl

2 hour forecast
2-hour Forecast

KTLX (Verif)

Refl + VrAll Radars

ReflectivityAll Radars

2 hour forecast1
2-hour Forecast

KTLX (Verif)

Refl + VrAll Radars

ReflectivityAll Radars

Stronger, Closer

2 3 hr vorticity forecasts1
2-3 hr Vorticity Forecasts

Triangles:

ObservedCirculations

No Radar Data

2 3 hr vorticity forecasts2
2-3 hr Vorticity Forecasts

Solid Green:

NetRad Only

Orange:

NexRad Only

Red:

Reflectivity Both

2 3 hr vorticity forecasts3
2-3 hr Vorticity Forecasts

Radial Velocity

Data Used fromAll Radars

Four Circulations

Tracked in this run

accomplishments
Accomplishments
  • Completed MPI of ADAS with cloud analysis
  • Able to process CASA radar
    • Automated Data Selection
    • Data I/O and Quality Control (ref & vel)
    • Remapping and hydrometeor assignment
    • Reflectivities are well-handled in model
  • Baseline Runs Complete
ongoing future work
Ongoing/Future Work
  • Complete MPI of Vr analysis and run simulations with Vr
  • Detailed verification of model forecasts
    • Comparison of QPF to NSSL 1-km Q2
    • Comparison of location and strength of forecast circulation centers vs. radar-observed circulation centers (April 10, May 8/9)
  • Prepare for 2008 Experiment
    • Complete MPI of 3DVAR and comparison of results
    • Integrate NWP in end-user training
    • Design near real-time evaluation for integration in NWC Hazardous WeatherTestbed
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