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Development and assessment of Mitigatiion / Adaptation Climate Change policy portfolios for Russian Federation. Prof. Alexander ILYINSKY Financial University , Moscow Dr. Popi KONIDARI, Anna FLESSA M.Sc. National and Kapodistrian University of Athens.
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Development and assessment ofMitigatiion / AdaptationClimate Change policy portfolios forRussian Federation Prof. Alexander ILYINSKY Financial University, Moscow Dr. Popi KONIDARI, Anna FLESSA M.Sc. National and Kapodistrian University of Athens PROMITHEAS-4Final Conference and PROMITHEASnet 6th International Scientific Conference, Athens 9-11 Oct. 2013
Promitheas 4 National Workshop - 1st International Conference Climate Policy, Sustainable Development and Green Finance20-21 May 2013, Moscow, Russia (Financial University)
International IFF-KEPA team members • Prof. Alexander Ilyinsky • Dr. Alexander Didenko • Dr. Sergei Petropavlovsky • Dr. Popi Konidari • MSc. Inna Lukashenko • MSc. Anna Flessa
Russia: facts and figures • Area: 17,098,242 sq. km • Population: 142,500,482 (July 2013 est.) • GDP (purchasing power parity): $2.555 trillion (2012 est.) • Climate: ranges from steppes in the south through humid continental in much of European Russia; subarctic in Siberia to tundra climate in the polar north; winters vary from cool along Black Sea coast to frigid in Siberia; summers vary from warm in the steppes to cool along Arctic coast
Russian energy: facts and figures(2012 est.) • Electricity - production: 1.064 trillion kWh 4 • Electricity - exports: 19.14 billion kWh 8 • Electricity - installed generating capacity: 223.1 million kW 4 • Electricity - from nuclear fuels: 17.2% of total installed capacity 14 • Electricity - from RES: 0,5% of total installed capacity 179 • Crude oil - production: 10.37 million bbl/day 1 • Crude oil - exports: 4.69 million bbl/day 2 • Natural gas - production: 653 billion cu m 1 • Natural gas - exports: 200.1 billion cu m 1 • CO2 emissions from consumption of energy: 1.634 bln. Mt 4
Data collection – how we collected and our sources • Roshydromet • Federal State Statistics Service • ERI RAS/REA • EBRD • European Commission • UNDP • UNEP • UNFCCC • World Bank • IFC • FAO • IEA • WWF
Developing BAU scenario • Focus on energy efficiency and less on Renewable Energy Sources • Remove all remaining cross‐subsidies from electricity pricing • Electricity tariffs for households will remain regulated • Increasing nuclear energy to 25% of energy production
Developing OPT scenario • Reduce energy intensity in 2020 by 40% of 2007 level • Target to double GDP in ten years • Goal to add at least 20000 MW of new generating capacity • Cooperation bonds between EU and Russia especially in the area of energy • Environmental issues
Developing PES scenario • Slower implementation of innovations, • Low GDP growth rate, • Severe climate change, • Bad demography • Reflect augmented set of Governmental policies, which implemented slower with worse results.
Best policy mixture • For criterion of environmental performance, OPT offers better grade of all scenarios; • This could be interpreted as lack of regulation (driven, perhaps, by lack of motivation) of regulatory bodies to decrease environmental impact of Russian economy. • There is definitely great leeway for improving environmental performance of the economy through implementation of new policies, many of which are currently discussed.