Carlo Barone, University of Trento Antonio Schizzerotto, University of Trento and IRVAPP

1. Does Information Matter? The Effects of an EducationalGuidance Program for High-School Seniors on Beliefs on the Value of Higher Education and on Enrolment Plans Carlo Barone, University of Trento Antonio Schizzerotto, University of Trento and IRVAPP Giovanni Abbiati, University of Trento Gianluca Argentin, University of Milan-Bicocca

2. «Information barriers in participation in HE» • - Project fundedbyItalianMinistryofEducation • - 4 SociologyDepartments (Bologna-MilanoStatale-Salerno-Trento) and 27 researchersinvolved • - National Coordinator: prof. Antonio Schizzerotto • - ScientificDirector: prof. Carlo Barone

3. Researchobjective Testing the role of misperceptions of costs, returns and probabilities of success in Higher Education (HE) on a nested set of outcomes: …as well as the social inequalities associated with these outcomes Bachelor Yes, butwhichoption? • Which field ofstudy? • Will I drop-out? Enrol in HE? Bachelor + master No Vocational HE

4. Literature Survey evidence: • Perceived costs of HE: students and parents overestimate costs [Avery & Kane, 2004; Ikenberry & Hartle, 1998] • Perceived benefits: students and parents are broadly accurate [Kaufmann, 2008; Menon, 1997] Experimental evidence: • Providing students with information on actual costs and grants opportunities enhances participation, more so for working-class students [e.g. Loyalka & Wei, 2014; Bettinger et al., 2009] • Providing student with information on benefits does not seem to have an impact on enrolment [Oreopulos et al., 2012]

5. The Italiancontext - 1 Long tracksuniversitycourses - e.g.: Medicine (5/6 yrs) Master (2 yrs) Vocational HE (1/2 yrs) Bachelor (3 yrs) Vocational High Schools (gr. 9-13) Technical Schools (9-13) General High Schools (9-13) Basic education (grades 1-8)

6. The Italiancontext - 1 Long tracksuniversitycourses - e.g.: Medicine (5/6 yrs) Master (2 yrs) Vocational HE (1/2 yrs) Bachelor (3 yrs) Vocational High Schools (gr. 9-13) Technical Schools (9-13) General High Schools (9-13) Basic education (grades 1-8)

7. The Italiancontext - 1 Long tracksuniversitycourses - e.g.: Medicine (5/6 yrs) Master (2 yrs) Vocational HE (1/2 yrs) Bachelor (3 yrs) Vocational High Schools (gr. 9-13) Technical Schools (9-13) General High Schools (9-13) Basic education (grades 1-8)

8. The Italiancontext - 2 An «open» system: studentshavemanyoptionsafter high school, butthey are poorlyinformed Educational guidance: almostabsent, asconcernscosts and benefits Recentresearch: low economic returns and substantial risks of overeducation for bachelor degrees Our own research: students overestimate both returns and costs of HE

9. Ourexperiment

10. Sampling and randomization Period (2013) January/March April April/May May June June/July Activity Pilotstudy Creationof a stratifiedrandom sample of 62 schools in 4 provinceslocated in differentareasof the country (stratadefinedbydetailedschooltrack and province) Invitationtoparticipateto the research Notificationofacceptanceof the schools Within-stratumrandomization Schoolsinformedof the resultsof the randomization

11. The treatment - 1 School guidanceinitiative to reduce information biases on: • Costs of HE (October 2013) • Returnstovarious educational options (high-schooldiplomas/vocational training/bachelor/masters) (February 2014) • Chances of success in HE and positive behavioursreducingdrop-out risks (March 2014) Allmeetingsorganizedduringschool-hours (5 hours) Meetingsheld by professionaleducatorsspecificallytrained (and supervised) touseourmaterials No meeting with parents

12. Characteristicsof the treatment • Simplicity • Targeting Data showntostudentsreferred to theirgeographic area, theirschooltrack and weredifferentiated by social originwhenrelevant Eg: costswere first shown for a typicalstudent of their province, thenadjusted to theirspecific situation • Interactivity • Personalization Studentshadtocalculatetheirpotentialcosts and complete a personalizedform

13. The longitudinalsurvey Treatment Wave0 October 2013 Wave2 November 2014 Wave3 February 2015 Wave1 May 2014 R. rate: 99,0% R. rate: 82,7% Impact on enrolment Impact on drop-out Impact on beliefs

14. Responserates

15. Baseline equivalence Equivalence on a large set of individualcharacteristics:

16. Compliance Classroomlevel Meeting 1: 100% Meeting 2: 97,7% Meeting 3: 92,7% Studentlevel 2 or 3 meetingsattended: 94,4%

17. Methods – ITT estimation Base Model Modelwith province/trackcontrols Full model

18. Outcomevariables - Beliefs on the valueofattaining a universitydegree - Beliefs on the costs of HE - Beliefs on differentialreturns to differentFoS • Enrolmentplans • Typeof HE pathchosen (vocational, bachelor, bachelor + master) • Field ofstudy

19. Results – 1 In Italy iseasiertofind a job withgood career opportunitiesfor…(1-10 points scale ofagree):

20. Results - 2 Agreement with the followingsentences(1-10 points scale of agreement): Importanceof the followingissues on post-diploma choice(1-10 points scale of agreement):

21. Results - 3 Post-diploma enrolment

22. Results - 4 Choiceof the field ofstudy (FoS)

23. Contamination issues 3,1ofcontrolstudents report tohaveheard in depthofourprogram Materialswerepersonalized, so thattheycouldnotbeeasilypassedtostudentsofotherschools (e.g. controlstudents) Moreover, controls received no equivalent substitute of the treatment

24. Additional heterogeneity analysis • Parental education • Family wealth • Track • Gender • Province • Wave 0 information bias

25. Concluding remarks (so far…) • Successful implementation of the experiments • Good success of the meetings among students • The effect of the program on beliefs on HE translate into enrolment intentions only to a very limited extent • Some preliminary evidence of a redistribution of enrolment plans between HE tracks

26. Thank you for your attention!