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Climate Science

Climate Science. Sense and Nonsense. Keith Burrows Australian Institute of Physics Education Committee. “… the global warming theory itself is based on just 16 years of warming – from 1980 to 1996.”. Nothing could be further from the truth!.

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Climate Science

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  1. Climate Science Sense and Nonsense Keith Burrows Australian Institute of Physics Education Committee

  2. “… the global warming theory itself is based on just 16 years of warming – from 1980 to 1996.” Nothing could be further from the truth!

  3. It is basic science that has been known for almost 200 years! Earth’s temperature is a balance between energy coming IN from the Sun and going OUT as IR

  4. Climate Science 101 • “The Earth should be a lot colder than it is” Joseph Fourier ~1820

  5. Climate Science 101 • Tyndall found that water vapour and carbon dioxide in the air keep the Earth warm and habitable. John Tyndall ~ 1860

  6. Climate Science 101 • Svante August Arrhenius figured it out in 1896. He also found that doubling the CO2 in the atmosphere would increase the Earth’s temperature around 5oC

  7. Climate Science 101 • It’s a bit like a greenhouse... • So it is called the “Greenhouse Effect” • It keeps the Earth at a warm +15oC (average) instead of a freezing –18oC • Greenhouse Effect = +33oC

  8. ie. 40% increase

  9. From 280 ppm pre-industrial to 400 ppm last year ie. 43% increase

  10. Climate Science 101 So by how much will adding 40% more CO2 in the atmosphere add to the +33oCGreenhouse Effect?

  11. The denier view

  12. 560 ppm 2oC 560 ppm BUT! This does NOT include delayed and feedback effects. Which are considerable! 280 ppm

  13. Best guess is between 2oC and 4oC

  14. Note that the figure is 1000 Gt of Carbon (not CO2) It is equivalent to 3700 Gt of CO2 Limiting cumulative CO2 emissions to 2050 to 1,000 Gt CO2 yields a 25% probability of warming exceeding 2oC As 2000–2006 CO2 emissions were 234 Gt CO2 , less than half the proven economically recoverable oil, gas and coal reserves can still be emitted up to 2050 to achieve such a goal. As 2000–2012CO2 emissions were 500Gt CO2 , less than quarter of the proven economically recoverable oil, gas and coal reserves can still be emitted up to 2050 to achieve such a goal.

  15. 2014 From Meinshausen et.al. Nature (April 2009)

  16. A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years S.Marcott, et.al. 8 March 2013, Science

  17. And the next 100 years? Earth has not been this hot for MILLIONS of years

  18. Earth’s climate

  19. July 2009 “Paul Blanchon's team at the National University of Mexico has been studying 121,000 year old coral reefs in the Yucatan Peninsula, formed during the last interglacial period when sea level peaked at around 10 metres higher than today. His findings suggest that at one point the sea rose 3 metres within 50 to 100 years.” Temperatures in that interglacial were only a degree or so warmer than the 20th C.

  20. Earth’s climate – looking at the past CO2 drops from >400 ppm to ~300 ppm Pliocene +3°C Pliocene: Temperature around 3oC warmer, sea level around 20 – 30 m higher

  21. http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2013/09/rising-seas/if-ice-melted-maphttp://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2013/09/rising-seas/if-ice-melted-map

  22. 2012 – Record low September Arctic sea ice

  23. Now about HALF what it has been for tens of thousands of years!

  24. Climate extremes • The RATE at which high temperature records are being broken is INCREASING

  25. “The latest estimate is that some 18.8 million km2 of northern soils hold about 1,700 billion tonnes of organic carbon. [Australia = 7.7 million km2 ] That is about four times more than all the carbon emitted by human activity in modern times and twice as much as is present in the atmosphere now.”

  26. International Permafrost Association

  27. Is the Earth warming? Satellites can measure the heat escaping to space … Low radiation High radiation

  28. Is the Earth warming? • … and IT IS LESS THAN THAT COMING IN from the Sun – by about ½ watt per sq metre. • The Earth must warm until they balance! Reflected visible radiation Emitted IR radiation

  29. Is the Earth warming? • Half a watt per square metre! That’s about: • 20 times ALL the power being used by humanity • or 400,000 Hiroshima bombs EVERY DAY • This MUST heat the Earth

  30. Is the Earth warming?

  31. Is the Earth warming? The Ocean

  32. HOW many more manufacturing workers must be sacked, thanks to green policies that only pretend to stop global warming? How many of the jobless won’t be able to heat or cool their homes, with these same mad policies helping to hike power prices by 110 per cent in only five years?

  33. “Minerals Council of Australia chief executive Brendan Pearson said the 19 per cent recommendation showed the CCA needed to be abolished. He said it would destroy jobs and living standards and was the equivalent of shutting down the electricity sector for five years.”

  34. What to do? • By all means change the light bulbs (etc!) • But the most important thing missing at present is political will • So we must TELL PEOPLE! • Write to papers and politicians • Join with others to spread the word • AND – spread the GOOD NEWS! (See the next presentation: And now the good news

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