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Qilong Min. Bing Lin, Yongxiang Hu, Steven Harrah, and Dion Fralick Langley Research Center Hampton, VA 23681. Roland Lawrence. Session 3: Observing the Tropical Cyclone and its Environment. Radar Sea Level Pressure Remote Sensing for Improvements in Hurricane Predictions.

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Radar Sea Level Pressure Remote Sensing for Improvements in Hurricane Predictions

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Radar sea level pressure remote sensing for improvements in hurricane predictions

Qilong Min

Bing Lin, Yongxiang Hu,

Steven Harrah, and Dion Fralick

Langley Research Center

Hampton, VA 23681

Roland Lawrence

Session 3:

Observing the Tropical Cyclone and its Environment

Radar Sea Level Pressure Remote Sensing

for Improvements in Hurricane Predictions

[email protected]

757.864.1805

04 March 2008

Charleston, SC


Radar sea level pressure remote sensing for improvements in hurricane predictions

Radar Sea Level Pressure Remote Sensing for Improvements in Hurricane Predictions

OUTLINE

  • Need & Benefits

  • Measurement

  • Development Status

  • Conclusion


Off shore air pressure measurements

Off-Shore Air Pressure Measurements

moored buoy

dropsonde

Radar Sea Level Pressure Remote Sensing for Improvements in Hurricane Predictions

  • Current operations require in situ measurement (few buoys & dropsonde)- sparse measurements in time and space- exposes air crews to a variety of dangers

  • Greatly improves hurricane forecasts(intensification and track)

drift buoy

Added Benefits of Remotely Sensed Measurements

  • Improved understanding of global pressure field (dynamics and interactions)- large area coverage & relatively rapid revisit intervals- lessen operational dangers & costs (long-term)


Radar sea level pressure remote sensing for improvements in hurricane predictions

Radar Sea Level Pressure Remote Sensing for Improvements in Hurricane Predictions

Example Benefits(Ivan’04 & Fran’97)

no P data

998.7mb

pressure variability: 882~1020mb

with P data

951.5mb

Control

actual track

with P data

error: 1.5mb (47 mb change)

350 km landfall error reduced to < 100 km

72hr Forecasts


Radar sea level pressure remote sensing for improvements in hurricane predictions

Example Benefits(Katrina)

Radar Sea Level Pressure Remote Sensing for Improvements in Hurricane Predictions

Aug 29

Key predictions in hurricane intensity and track are significantly improved using remotely sensed pressure measurements (p) compared to controlled models (c).

Improvements in hurricane forecasts are demonstrated using press. measurements compared with control predictions and the observed track of Katrina.


Radar sea level pressure remote sensing for improvements in hurricane predictions

Attenuation

Radar Sea Level Pressure Remote Sensing for Improvements in Hurricane Predictions

Measurement Concept

Aircraft/Spacecraft-Based

Q-Band (50-56GHz) Radar

Oxygen in the atmosphereattenuates the transmitted signal – less at lower freq. and more at higher freq.

Calibrated PRecw/o Attenuation

PRec

f or 1/l

The amount of attenuation is directly related to barometric pressure and altitude.

T/R Several (1-6),

Narrow-Band (~100MHz) Signals

Radar Attenuation by Oxygen Barometric Sensor (RAOBS)


Simulated radar results

Simulated Radar Results

PR(l1)

PR(l2)

Radar Sea Level Pressure Remote Sensing for Improvements in Hurricane Predictions

Most of the variability (shown here) is due to global atmospheric profile variations: temperature, water vapor, clouds, etc.


Radar sea level pressure remote sensing for improvements in hurricane predictions

Radar Sea Level Pressure Remote Sensing for Improvements in Hurricane Predictions

Ground Tests (LaRC)

Projected

Beamwidth

Projected

Beamwidth

  • Calibration Target

  • nearly spherical reflector

  • ~300m clear range

  • Calibration Target

  • nearly spherical reflector

  • ~300m clear range

RAOBS PoC Instrument

Installed on Mobile Radar Lab

Radar Attenuation by Oxygen Barometric Sensor (RAOBS)


Radar sea level pressure remote sensing for improvements in hurricane predictions

Supported by VDOT

Radar Sea Level Pressure Remote Sensing for Improvements in Hurricane Predictions

Ground Tests

Measure Water NRCS

Over Wide Inc. Ang.

Support Satellite Design

Varina-Enon Bridge

I-295 South of Richmond, VA

Approx. 150’ above

James River


Radar sea level pressure remote sensing for improvements in hurricane predictions

C E N T E R

HELICOPTERS, INC.

Radar Sea Level Pressure Remote Sensing for Improvements in Hurricane Predictions

Flight Hardware Installation

Bell 407

RAOBS PoC

Instrument

Internal Rack (VNA)

Cable Routing

Rail Mount

Box Frame

Antennas

Flight Tests Q3 FY08

Port Side View


Radar sea level pressure remote sensing for improvements in hurricane predictions

Radar Sea Level Pressure Remote Sensing for Improvements in Hurricane Predictions

Satellite Concept

RAOBS

Torbit ~98 min

Design Est.:

Mass

Power

& DL Comm.

TBD – FY’08

LEO (705 km)

±10o

~ ½ o

6 km

250 km


Radar sea level pressure remote sensing for improvements in hurricane predictions

Radar Sea Level Pressure Remote Sensing for Improvements in Hurricane Predictions

Conclusions

  • RAOBS Concept of Operation Instrument - Validated RAOBS Measurement Concept - Completed Ground Tests - Developed Flight Installation (awaiting FAA cert) - Looking for additional flight opportunities

  • RAOBS operational model shows significant improvements to our understanding of global pressure fields (dynamics and interactions)

  • Significant improvements to hurricane forecasts (intensification and track)- Improves forecast reliability- Increases warning times - Decreases social/economic impact

  • Beginning satellite design and subsystem definitions- Looking for collaborative partners / future satellite projects


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