BURN-P3: A Tool for Mapping Wildfire Susceptibility
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BURN-P3: A Tool for Mapping Wildfire Susceptibility. Marc Parisien 1 , Victor Kafka 2 , Kelvin Hirsch 1 , Bernie Todd 1 , Suzanne Lavoie 1 , Paul Maczek 3 , and Cordy Tymstra 4 1 Canadian Forest Service 2 Parks Canada 3 Saskatchewan Environment 4 Alberta Sustainable Resource Development.

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Marc parisien 1 victor kafka 2 kelvin hirsch 1 bernie todd 1

BURN-P3: A Tool for Mapping Wildfire Susceptibility

Marc Parisien1, Victor Kafka2, Kelvin Hirsch1, Bernie Todd1,

Suzanne Lavoie1 , Paul Maczek3, and Cordy Tymstra4

1Canadian Forest Service

2Parks Canada

3Saskatchewan Environment

4Alberta Sustainable Resource Development


Marc parisien 1 victor kafka 2 kelvin hirsch 1 bernie todd 1

Burn-P3 (Probability, Prediction, and Planning)

A tool that provides a quantitative estimate of wildfire susceptibility (i.e., burn probability) for large fire-prone landscapes

  • BURN-P3maps the wildfire susceptibility:

    • of the current landscape

    • under variable burning conditions

    • applying historical variability


Marc parisien 1 victor kafka 2 kelvin hirsch 1 bernie todd 1

General Design

Number of escaped fires per year

NUMBER OF ESCAPED FIRES DISTRIBUTION

Burn probability (BP) =

Number of times each cell burned ï‚´ 100%

Number of iterations

Draw number of escaped fires for one iteration

Simulate all fires of the iteration individually

AREA BURNED GRID FOR EACH ITERATION

Repeat for n iterations

ADD TO CUMULATIVE AREA BURNED GRID FOR COMPLETED ITERATIONS


Marc parisien 1 victor kafka 2 kelvin hirsch 1 bernie todd 1

Burn probability (%)

Burn probability map


Marc parisien 1 victor kafka 2 kelvin hirsch 1 bernie todd 1

Potential Uses of BURN-P3

  • Strategic planning of fire management activities

    • Locate areas of limited suppression effectiveness

    • Identify potential wildland-urban interface problems

  • Evaluating the role of fuels management strategies

    • Model their potential effectiveness (i.e., reduction in BP)

    • Optimize their location on the landscape

  • Optimizing forestry planning

    • Prioritize areas according to wildfire risk

    • Optimize the timing and layout of cutblock design

    • Road construction: facilitate fire management operations


Data inputs

Data inputs

  • Required inputs:

    • Historical weather

    • Fuel type grid

  • Optional inputs:

    • Slope, elevation, aspect grids

    • Historical or probable ignition locations

    • Fire frequency distribution

    • Fire duration distribution

    • Weather zones


Fuel continuity

Fuel continuity


Marc parisien 1 victor kafka 2 kelvin hirsch 1 bernie todd 1

Forest B

Forest A

25 km

Burn probability (%)


Marc parisien 1 victor kafka 2 kelvin hirsch 1 bernie todd 1

Burn-P3

  • Burn-P3 application

    • Download it from here:

      • ftp://ftp.nofc.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/fire/BURN_P3/

    • No administrative privileges required for installation!

    • Prometheus COM license required

  • Collaborators

    • Canadian Forest Service

    • Alberta Sustainable Resource Development

    • Saskatchewan Environment

    • Parks Canada

    • Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre


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