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BURN-P3: A Tool for Mapping Wildfire Susceptibility. Marc Parisien 1 , Victor Kafka 2 , Kelvin Hirsch 1 , Bernie Todd 1 , Suzanne Lavoie 1 , Paul Maczek 3 , and Cordy Tymstra 4 1 Canadian Forest Service 2 Parks Canada 3 Saskatchewan Environment 4 Alberta Sustainable Resource Development.

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BURN-P3: A Tool for Mapping Wildfire Susceptibility

Marc Parisien1, Victor Kafka2, Kelvin Hirsch1, Bernie Todd1,

Suzanne Lavoie1 , Paul Maczek3, and Cordy Tymstra4

1Canadian Forest Service

2Parks Canada

3Saskatchewan Environment

4Alberta Sustainable Resource Development

slide2

Burn-P3 (Probability, Prediction, and Planning)

A tool that provides a quantitative estimate of wildfire susceptibility (i.e., burn probability) for large fire-prone landscapes

  • BURN-P3maps the wildfire susceptibility:
      • of the current landscape
      • under variable burning conditions
      • applying historical variability
slide3

General Design

Number of escaped fires per year

NUMBER OF ESCAPED FIRES DISTRIBUTION

Burn probability (BP) =

Number of times each cell burned  100%

Number of iterations

Draw number of escaped fires for one iteration

Simulate all fires of the iteration individually

AREA BURNED GRID FOR EACH ITERATION

Repeat for n iterations

ADD TO CUMULATIVE AREA BURNED GRID FOR COMPLETED ITERATIONS

slide16

Burn probability (%)

Burn probability map

slide17

Potential Uses of BURN-P3

  • Strategic planning of fire management activities
    • Locate areas of limited suppression effectiveness
    • Identify potential wildland-urban interface problems
  • Evaluating the role of fuels management strategies
    • Model their potential effectiveness (i.e., reduction in BP)
    • Optimize their location on the landscape
  • Optimizing forestry planning
    • Prioritize areas according to wildfire risk
    • Optimize the timing and layout of cutblock design
    • Road construction: facilitate fire management operations
data inputs
Data inputs
  • Required inputs:
    • Historical weather
    • Fuel type grid
  • Optional inputs:
    • Slope, elevation, aspect grids
    • Historical or probable ignition locations
    • Fire frequency distribution
    • Fire duration distribution
    • Weather zones
slide20

Forest B

Forest A

25 km

Burn probability (%)

slide21

Burn-P3

  • Burn-P3 application
    • Download it from here:
      • ftp://ftp.nofc.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/fire/BURN_P3/
    • No administrative privileges required for installation!
    • Prometheus COM license required
  • Collaborators
    • Canadian Forest Service
    • Alberta Sustainable Resource Development
    • Saskatchewan Environment
    • Parks Canada
    • Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre
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