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GLOBALIZATION AND EQUITY A VIEW FROM NORWAY

GLOBALIZATION AND EQUITY A VIEW FROM NORWAY. Valter Angell Norwegian Institute of International Affairs - NUPI. Three strands of reflections. The history of globalization Key features Norway and globalization Anything to learn? 3. The future of globalization Towards a new order?.

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GLOBALIZATION AND EQUITY A VIEW FROM NORWAY

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  1. GLOBALIZATION AND EQUITYA VIEW FROM NORWAY Valter Angell Norwegian Institute of International Affairs - NUPI

  2. Three strands of reflections • The history of globalization Key features • Norway and globalization Anything to learn? 3. The future of globalization Towards a new order?

  3. My basic premise • The need for a holistic approach and to understand the political economy • IDEOLOGY/POLITICS • THEORY • POWER

  4. The basic model of the 40-ties • A system designed by economists • In powerful nations • Formed by historical experiences • Stability • Multilateralism

  5. Globalization started focus on trade • Liberalization is good • For a nation, because the gains for the consumers are larger than the losses for the producers • From Adam Smith to Bhagwati • By compensations, everybody is better off, • Assumptions Marginal costs of money is equal Perfect competition Entry, knowledge Later-Symmetric information • And, if the transfer is done!

  6. Key historical points • ITO failed – • Havanna Charter not ratified • 1947 27 nations negotiate in Geneva • The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade – GATT • MFN clause • I – I – I • Tariffs reduced • A powerless organization takes form

  7. 1950 - 60 • Commodities left out • The Haberler report • New countries joins • A Part IV of GATT is added /1964 • The first UNCTAD is taking place • But, no real concessions to south

  8. The turbulent 70-ties • Limits to growth • The commodity crisis • OPEC OIL • The new international economic order • NIEO • Fair and equitable prices • Resolution 93 IV UNCTAD IV • The Common Fund for Commodities - CFC

  9. NIEO/ a break with the past • New political institutions • 10 commodities - stable and equitable prices • Global buffer stocks • Intervention in the market • With support from the north / for a while • OPECs power declined, • CFC 1980 / A weak resolution • Result – a small office in Amsterdam • Project support / no intervention in the marked

  10. GATT/WTO 1980/90 • The Uruguay-round • The voice from the south is heard • Tarification of trade obstacles • Further reduction of industrial tariffs • GATT=WTO (pluss..)

  11. Present • The Doha round – the development round • Agriculture is the key • Marked access in the north(300> Mia. USD) Elimination of export subsidies • The right to protection of developing economies (Good? Jagdish?) • Collapse • And after Bush? • The end of a system controlled by north?

  12. Where we are now? • Most countries members of WTO • DC understands the benefits of international trade • Still their tariffs high • North has lost its grip • Protection in the North • Agricultural subsidies 350 bill. USD • Museveni –Trade, no aid

  13. Melchior 2005

  14. Melchior 2006

  15. Melchior 2006

  16. Norway and globalizationTwo faces • Norway, from bottom to top, in 200 years • UNDP criteria questionable • Natural resources, capital and labor important • and the economic system (Sweden, Denmark, Finland) • Growth and equity

  17. Key elements • Ownership to land • Democratic institutions working • The interdependence between capital, government and labor accepted • Negotiated settlements • Education to all

  18. A smooth transformation? • The international dimension always a factor • When land become scarce, migration • When capital shortage, foreign investment • When food shortage occurred, imports • Now, • surplus capital - oil revenues invested abroad • Lack of labor, imports

  19. The Nordic Model • We are all social democrats • The welfare state • Understanding the system • The interdependence between key actors • Role of the public sector • Stability / no strikes • Good governance • Deficiencies? Yes!

  20. The Nordic Model GOVERNMENT CAPITAL LABOR

  21. Norway and the south • Words and deeds • Declarations and realities • ODA, almost 1 pst. of GNP • Trade…… • In international organizations • THE BIG WORDS / • GENDER, ENVIRONMENT, GOOD GOVERNANCE, PEACE ETC.

  22. In trade • GATT / enabling clause • Having GSP • Watch the clauses / in Norwegian • The farmers rule………. • 30.000, <2% of GDP • No trade • Multifunctionality • Read / disfunctionality

  23. The future of globalizationTowards a new order? • GATT 1947 27 countries • Today 150 • WTO’s 2006 report highlights developing countries’ growing role in world trade • Today the real dynamism in trade is to be found in the developing world, where Brazil, China, India, Malaysia, Mexico and Thailand all posted double digit growth in exports.

  24. WTR Dec. 2006 Lamy • Concerning the role of developing countries, Lamy mentions the formation of powerful negotiating groups like the G-90, the G-33 and the G-20 that illustrate that this is an organization in which all Members can not only state their case, but can achieve meaningful objectives on their path towards development.

  25. The future • What will happen in Asia? • Standing together • In G-20 • In G-90 • Going alone? • Multilateralism and or regionalism • Breaking history? • Being big and good? • Taking care of all?

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