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Streamflow Regulation Projects

Streamflow Regulation Projects. Gregg Schalk, P. E. Senior Hydrologist. Missouri Basin River Forecast Center Pleasant Hill, MO. Fourth Annual Missouri Basin River Forecaster’s Meeting 20-21 February 2013. Streamflow Regulation FY12 Projects. Missouri Basin River Forecast Center

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Streamflow Regulation Projects

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  1. Streamflow Regulation Projects Gregg Schalk, P. E. Senior Hydrologist Missouri Basin River Forecast Center Pleasant Hill, MO Fourth Annual Missouri Basin River Forecaster’s Meeting 20-21 February 2013

  2. Streamflow Regulation FY12 Projects Missouri Basin River Forecast Center Pleasant Hill, MO • Complete FY12 • RES-SIM model completed for 7 reservoirs in the Lower Kansas Basin • Implement operationally by EOF FY13 • AHPS Long-Range Probability Outlooks for all the Kansas Basin forecast points • Model and Report given to KCCOE, RES-SIM -> Report available • Model extended with internal scripts – Downstream Control Representation (channel capacities) • Model computational times (30 minutes compared to 4 hours for a 50-year run). • Balancing algorithm specified in the water control manuals cannot be specified using the built-in balancing functions. • Reservoirs modeled according to the rules specified in the water control manuals, with the exception of the lower 5% of the flood control pool where there is greater operational flexibility.

  3. Streamflow Regulation FY13 Projects Missouri Basin River Forecast Center Pleasant Hill, MO • Current Projects FY13 • Diversion Modeling and runoff modeling in the Upper Missouri above Canyon Ferry • Model biased when diversions not accounted for • Update of 7 North Platte River Reservoirs Models • COE Silver Jackets Project • Lake McConaughywill be modeled with RES-SIM • Updated RES-J model for the other 6 reservoirs

  4. Streamflow Regulation Future Projects Missouri Basin River Forecast Center Pleasant Hill, MO • Planned Projects FY14 (Pending Funding; Contractor) • RES-SIM models for 6 Reservoirs in the Upper Missouri including Canyon Ferry. • Future Projects - Numerous reservoirs to be modeled and numerous diversion reaches • Below Canyon Ferry and above Ft. Peck Res MT (Reservoir and Diversion Models) • Osage Basin KS/MO (7 Reservoirs, Adapt COE developed model) • Missouri Mainstem System MT/ND/SD (Adapt COE developed model?) • Bighorn Basin WY (5 Reservoir and Diversion Models) • Lower Yellowstone MT (Diversion Models) • Pelican Lake SD • Update all existing Models like Upper James

  5. Streamflow Regulation ProjectsWHY?? Missouri Basin River Forecast Center Pleasant Hill, MO • Why do we want to Model Streamflow Regulation?? • Answer: Probabilistic Outlooks and Forecast • HEFS – Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service • NWS, Office of Hydrologic Development new ensemble modeling approach to produce short to long-term forecast and or outlooks. • Plugs into exist new CHPS/FEWS forecasting framework • Roll-out begins in FY14 • Regulation models needed to capture full capability • Concerns with Probabilistic Forecasts driven by Regulation Models • Reservoir models can produce unrealistic results • Coordination like 2011 event on Mainstem nearly impossible • Deterministic vs. Probabilistic forecast • Pros with Probabilistic Forecasts driven by Regulation Models • Captures Uncertainty (Temperature/Precip; Model parameter and structure), Range of possible scenarios • Decision Support Tools – NYC Dept Environment Protection developing Operational Support Tools to use HEFS information

  6. Streamflow Regulation ProjectsMethods Missouri Basin River Forecast Center Pleasant Hill, MO • What Methods for Modeling Streamflow Regulation?? • Answer: Consumptive Use for diversion regulation – includes canal capacities and availability models. • Answer: All Future Reservoir models done with RES-SIM • Use existing COE developed models • Model Limitations extended by internal scripting capability • Regulation Modeling – Community effort needed for the best possible model: • Contractor support • Review of model approaches • Community Model approach – shared model

  7. HEFS ComponentsHow do they fit together? Verification products MEFP EVS Forcing input ensembles Weather/climate forecasts MEFP Parameters Time series Post- processed MEFP PE “Raw” Hydrologic Ensemble Processor Graphics Generator flow ensembles Input flow data Initial conditions and model parameters (e.g. DA) EnsPost Data Assimilator - possible post HEFSv1 enhancement EnsPost Parameters Ensemble products EnsPost PE

  8. Questions? Missouri Basin River Forecast Center Pleasant Hill, MO ?

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