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When organization embraced uncertainty

When organization embraced uncertainty. David M. Hamby, Oregon State University UNC Chapel Hill September 1984 – January 1989. Dedicated to Dr. James E. Watson, Jr. 1970 UNC PhD UNC Prof 27 yrs Several teaching awards HPS President 1985-86 24 yrs on NCs Radiation Protection Commission

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When organization embraced uncertainty

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  1. When organization embraced uncertainty David M. Hamby, Oregon State University UNC Chapel Hill September 1984 – January 1989

  2. Dedicated to Dr. James E. Watson, Jr • 1970 UNC PhD • UNC Prof 27 yrs • Several teaching awards • HPS President 1985-86 • 24 yrs on NCs Radiation Protection Commission • North Carolina Order of the Long Leaf Pine award

  3. More Memories

  4. It’s Changed in 20 Years!

  5. 1989: Time to Get a Real Job! microDOSIMETRY = environmental DOSIMETRY

  6. Life’s Path 1999 1994 1989

  7. A Future of Uncertainty • What stack height can we tolerate? • What happens if the deterministic assumptions change? • What difference does it make? • If a particular parameter varies, how is the result impacted? • Which parameter(s) control the result?

  8. Uncertainty of: • Atm tritium dose • Food consumption parameters • Sensitivity analyses • Aqueous tritium dose • Parameters in aqueous models • Meteorological data summaries • Environmental dosimetry • Iodine and trituim DCFs • Gaussian model • ICRP 66 inhalation model • Env movement of 137Cs • Particulate deposition in the lung • ICRP 103 tissue weighting factors • Uncertainty in decision-making

  9. General Method • Obtain mathematical model • Characterize input parameters • Execute thousands of model iterations • Determine sensitive parameters • Evaluate uncertainty of model output

  10. Probabilistic Dose Estimation

  11. Near the Dose Limit?

  12. An Alternative View

  13. The Complimentary View

  14. Multiple Probabilistic Analyses

  15. Uncertainty Presentation

  16. When organization embraced uncertainty

  17. A good piece of work. Congratulations. - Jim

  18. Jim Watson • Southern gentleman • Distinguished • Soft spoken • No nonsense • Systematic • Practical • Mentor • Friend

  19. “I’ve learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.” - Maya Angelo

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