Towards an improvement of current migration estimates for Italy

1. Towards an improvement of current migration estimates for Italy Domenico Gabrielli, Maria Pia Sorvillo Istat - Italy Joint UNECE-Eurostat Work session on Migration Statistics (Geneva, 3-5 March 2008)

2. OUTLINE • Sources for statistics on migration • Improvement of the process • Is emigration underestimated by current surveys? • Household surveys: a complementary source of information on emigration • Some conclusions Work session on migration statistics - Geneva, 3-5-march 2008

3. SOURCES FOR STATISTICS ON MIGRATION • Municipal Population registers: • Registrations and cancellations from and for abroad may be assimilated to long-term migration • SUMMARY and INDIVIDUAL data on migratory flows are gathered through current surveys carried out by Istat. • Population census • Sample surveys Work session on migration statistics - Geneva, 3-5-march 2008

4. CURRENT SURVEYS ON MIGRATION • Summary data (demographic balance) • monthly and yearly collection of population flows (including immigrants and emigrants) for each municipality • Individual data • registrations and cancellations in population registers for migrations between Italian municipalities and abroad, including characteristic of the migration and the migrants • Undercount of the outward flows in the data collected with the survey on individual change of residence, compared to the survey on municipal demographic balances Work session on migration statistics - Geneva, 3-5-march 2008

5. DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AGGREGATED AND INDIVIDUAL DATA Work session on migration statistics - Geneva, 3-5-march 2008

6. IMPROVEMENT OF THE PROCESS • Coherence with statistical requirements • Attention to changes in administrative rules and practice • Lack of detailed information • Better monitoring of survey and actions on the municipalities (respondents) • Progress of web data collection • New centralized System • Delay in the availability of data • Progress of web data collection • Estimates Work session on migration statistics - Geneva, 3-5-march 2008

7. DISCREPANCIES IN POPULATION REGISTERS’ (AND IN SURVEYS’ DATA) • Background: • Census defines the official amount of resident population • Population registers (Anagrafi) give the changes due to natural and migration dynamics therefore updating official population • Differences between the registered population (Anagrafi) and the resident population (Census) are due to: • Census undercoverage (persons missed by the census) • Census overcounting, especially for foreigners who do not have requirements needed by the law to be resident • Anagrafi undercoverage, especially for foreigners who do not register • Anagrafi overcounting (missed cancellations of those who leave the country) Work session on migration statistics - Geneva, 3-5-march 2008

8. IS EMIGRATION UNDERESTIMATED BY CURRENT SURVEYS? • Available sources of information: • Population census (2001) • Census Coverage survey (2001) • Population registers (2001 stocks, 1991-2001 flows) Work session on migration statistics - Geneva, 3-5-march 2008

9. A ESTIMATE OF THE EMIGRATION UNDERCOUNT • ∆ Register - Census • = • Census undercoverage • - • Census over count • + • “Shadow emigration” • - • Anagrafi undercoverage • Maximum Estimated SE rate: 27% Work session on migration statistics - Geneva, 3-5-march 2008

10. HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS: A COMPLEMENTARY SOURCE OF INFORMATION ON EMIGRATION • Requirements: • Household survey with large sample size • Panel or Pseudo-panel • Questions about the permanence in the households of each member • Tracking of the household • Eligible surveys: • EUSILC (European Statistics on Income and Living Conditions) • Labour Force Survey Work session on migration statistics - Geneva, 3-5-march 2008

11. EUSILC: SAMPLING DESIGN • Two stage sampling design: primary sampling units are the municipalities; the secondary stage sampling units (SSU) are the households (people living in Institution are not included in the sample) • The PSU are stratified according to their size in terms of number of residents. • Stratification is carried out inside each region (NUTS2). • Four municipalities are selected in each strata with probability proportional to their size in terms of residents. • For selected municipalities, households are selected from the municipality population register Work session on migration statistics - Geneva, 3-5-march 2008

12. EUSILC: ROTATION OF SAMPLES • The whole sample is composed of 4 different panel, each one in the survey for 4 waves (=4 years). • Each year 1/4 of the sample is renewed, replacing the group entered in the sample four years before. • Each group is associated to one of the municipalities of the strata. Work session on migration statistics - Geneva, 3-5-march 2008

13. LABOUR FORCE SURVEY: SAMPLING DESIGN • Sampling scheme as described for EUSILC • 2 sampling stages: Municipalities as PSU and Households as secondary sampling units (people living in Institution are not included in the sample) • stratification of municipality (in each province - NUTS3) on demographic size; selection of one PSU in each stratum proportional to its demographic size; • SSU are selected from population municipality register. • About 1250 municipalities, 75.000 households each quarter Work session on migration statistics - Geneva, 3-5-march 2008

14. LABOUR FORCE SURVEY: ROTATION OF SAMPLES Overlap of the sample of year T and T+1 (same quarter): 50% of the sample; (year T quarter I and year T +1 quarter I: rotational groups E and F ) Overlap of the sample in two consecutive quarters: 50% of the sample, (year T quarter II and III, rotational groups C and G ) Work session on migration statistics - Geneva, 3-5-march 2008

15. TRACKING • Both in EUSILC and Labour Force Surveys the households are contacted in subsequent occasions. • In addition to the information on migration available from the municipality registers (agreeing with the administrative data), some question are addressed to detect migration of households and individuals • In EUSILC, when a household is not found, the interviewer can specify the motivation “moved abroad”. Moreover, if a member is not present in the household the same motivation can be given. • In the LFS, when a member of the household is no longer present a question is asked about the reason (moved abroad being one of the items). Tracking is much less focused on, as it is essentially a cross-sectional survey. Work session on migration statistics - Geneva, 3-5-march 2008

16. FIRST RESULTS FROM EUSILC-2006 Work session on migration statistics - Geneva, 3-5-march 2008

17. FIRST RESULTS FROM EUSILC-2006 (2) Work session on migration statistics - Geneva, 3-5-march 2008

18. SOME CONCLUSIONS • Improvement of statistics on emigration can result from a multi dimensional approach: • To monitor the changes in legislation and the actual management of Population registers • Strict cooperation with the Ministry of Internal Affairs • Ongoing contacts with municipalities and associations of public officers in charge of Registers • Activities to make the main actors aware of requirements and utility of statistics. Work session on migration statistics - Geneva, 3-5-march 2008

19. SOME CONCLUSIONS • 2. To ameliorate the production process of current surveys • + Accuracy • + Completeness • + Timeliness • Monitoring of respondents • Web data collection • Centralized systems • Statistical estimates Work session on migration statistics - Geneva, 3-5-march 2008

20. SOME CONCLUSIONS • 3. To use other sources to check/complement existing data (EUSILC and LFS) • Check Consistency between results of current surveys and household surveys • Obtain valuable clues on the size of “shadow emigration” • Derive more information on socio-economic status of emigrants Work session on migration statistics - Geneva, 3-5-march 2008