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Operational and diagnostic evaluations of ozone forecasts by the Eta-CMAQ model suite during the 2002 new England air quality study (NEAQS) Shaocai Yu $, Rohit Mathur + , Daiwen Kang $ , Kenneth Schere + , Brian Eder + , Jonathan Pleim + , Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division

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Operational and diagnostic evaluations of ozone forecasts by the Eta-CMAQ model suite during the 2002 new England air quality study (NEAQS)

Shaocai Yu$,Rohit Mathur+, Daiwen Kang$,Kenneth Schere+,

Brian Eder+,Jonathan Pleim+,

Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division

NERL, U.S. EPA, RTP, NC 27711.

$On assignment from Science and Technology Corporation

+ On assignment from Air Resources Laboratory, NOAA


Introduction the Eta-CMAQ model suite during the 2002 new England air quality study (NEAQS)


CMAQ C the Eta-CMAQ model suite during the 2002 new England air quality study (NEAQS)ommunity Multiscale Air QualityModel

  • Community Model

  • Multiscale

    • consistent model structures for interaction of urban through Continental scales

  • Multi-pollutant

    • ozone, speciated particulate matter, visibility, acid deposition

    • and air toxics


AIRMAP sites the Eta-CMAQ model suite during the 2002 new England air quality study (NEAQS)

NE Model domain and site locations


SO2 (CS) the Eta-CMAQ model suite during the 2002 new England air quality study (NEAQS)

  • Parrish et al., 1991:

  • Mobile source: CO, NOx

  • Point source (power plants): SO2, NOx

  • SO2/NOy<1:mobile source

  • SO2/NOy>1:point source

CO (CS)

SO2 (TF)

  • Sites were significantly influenced by polluted plume after 8/11:

    • mobile and point sources

CO (TF)

8/11


  • Results the Eta-CMAQ model suite during the 2002 new England air quality study (NEAQS)1. O3 episode (8/6-8/17/2002)

Modeled and observed (diamond) O3 (ppb)

~45 ppbv O3

~110 ppbv O3

(b) NMB=(model-obs)/obs


NMB (max 8-hr) the Eta-CMAQ model suite during the 2002 new England air quality study (NEAQS)

Model O3

Max 1hr

Max 8hr

AQS O3 (ppb)


  • Results the Eta-CMAQ model suite during the 2002 new England air quality study (NEAQS)3. Time-series eval.

O3

NO

Harvard Forest

NO2

PAN

CO

NOy

8/11


  • Results the Eta-CMAQ model suite during the 2002 new England air quality study (NEAQS)3. Time-series at AIRMAP sites

  • Hanna et al. (2001):

  • 50% uncertainty in JNO2

    • 40 ppbv (or 20%) uncertainty in max O3

  • Model reproduces

    • 64-77% of observed JNO2 within a factor of 1.5

  • Priority: more accurate determination of JNO2 in model


  • Results the Eta-CMAQ model suite during the 2002 new England air quality study (NEAQS)

    3. O3 Lidar vertical profiles

Obs

  • Extremely tough test:

  • Temporal and 3-D field correctly

  • Model reproduced obs at low altitude and more uniform

  • Over predictions increase with altitude

Model

Ship Track


  • Results the Eta-CMAQ model suite during the 2002 new England air quality study (NEAQS) (diagnostic evaluation)

  • NOx-sensitive regimes: [O3]/[NOx], Photochemical age: [NOz]/[NOy],

    O3 production efficiency: [NOz]/[O3]

  • NOx-sensitive regimes: [O3]/[NOx]

  • Arnold et al., 2003:

    • [O3]/[NOx]<14:VOC-sensitive

  • >46:NOx-sensitive

  • Both model and obs: three sites are mainly under strongly NOx-sensitive conditions (>53%)


  • Results the Eta-CMAQ model suite during the 2002 new England air quality study (NEAQS)Photochemical age: [NOz]/[NOy]

  • Arnold et al., 2003:

  • [NOz]/[NOy]>0.6:aged NOx plume

CS

  • For daytime (6 to 18 EST) hours:

TF

  • Model and Obs: accumulating O3

  • aging the NOx

  • in the similar way.

HF


  • Results the Eta-CMAQ model suite during the 2002 new England air quality study (NEAQS)

    O3 production efficiency

  • : O3-NOz slope

  • Parrish et al., 1993 :

  • O3-NOz slope:

    • upper limit of

  • :

  • Obs: 8.3 to 10.0

  • Model: 4.2 to 5.1

CS

TF

  • At rural sites in E US (Olszyna et al., 1994):

  • : 5 to 10

NOz

O3

HF

NOz


Contacts
Contacts: the Eta-CMAQ model suite during the 2002 new England air quality study (NEAQS)

Brian K. Eder

email: [email protected]

www.arl.noaa.gov/

www.epa.gov/asmdnerl


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