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Chapter 10. Counting Methods. Chapter 10: Counting Methods. 10.1 Counting by Systematic Listing 10.2 Using the Fundamental Counting Principle 10.3 Using Permutations and Combinations 10.4 Using Pascal’s Triangle 10.5 Counting Problems Involving “Not” and “Or”. Section 10-1.

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Chapter 10

Chapter 10

Counting Methods

2012 Pearson Education, Inc.


Chapter 10 counting methods
Chapter 10: Counting Methods

  • 10.1 Counting by Systematic Listing

  • 10.2 Using the Fundamental Counting Principle

  • 10.3 Using Permutations and Combinations

  • 10.4 Using Pascal’s Triangle

  • 10.5 Counting Problems Involving “Not” and “Or”

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Section 10 1
Section 10-1

  • Counting by Systematic Listing

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Counting by systematic listing
Counting by Systematic Listing

  • One-Part Tasks

  • Product Tables for Two-Part Tasks

  • Tree Diagrams for Multiple-Part Tasks

  • Other Systematic Listing Methods

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One part tasks
One-Part Tasks

The results for simple, one-part tasks can often be listed easily. For the task of tossing a fair coin, the list is heads, tails, with two possible results. For the task of rolling a single fair die the list is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, with six possibilities.

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Example selecting a club president
Example: Selecting a Club President

Consider a club N with four members:

N = {Mike, Adam, Ted, Helen} or in abbreviated form N = {M, A, T, H}

In how many ways can this group select a president?

Solution

The task is to select one of the four members as president. There are four possible results: M, A, T, and H.

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Example product tables for two part tasks
Example: Product Tables for Two-Part Tasks

Determine the number of two-digit numbers that can be written using the digits from the set {2, 4, 6}.

Solution

The task consists of two parts:

1. Choose a first digit

2. Choose a second digit

The results for a two-part task can be pictured in a product table, as shown on the next slide.

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Example product tables for two part tasks1
Example: Product Tables for Two-Part Tasks

Solution(continued)

From the table we obtain the list of possible results: 22, 24, 26, 42, 44, 46, 62, 64, 66.

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Example electing club officers
Example: Electing Club Officers Dice

Find the number of ways club N (previous slide) can elect a president and secretary.

Solution

The task consists of two parts:

1. Choose a president

2. Choose a secretary

The product table is pictured on the next slide.

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Example product tables for two part tasks2
Example: Product Tables for Two-Part Tasks Dice

Solution(continued)

From the table we see that there are 12 possibilities.

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Example electing club officers1
Example: Electing Club Officers Dice

Find the number of ways club N (previous slide) can appoint a committee of two members.

Solution

Using the table on the previous slide, this time the order of the letters (people) in a pair makes no difference. So there are 6 possibilities: MA, MT, MH, AT, AH, TH.

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Tree diagrams for multiple part tasks
Tree Diagrams for Multiple-Part Tasks Dice

A task that has more than two parts is not easy to analyze with a product table. Another helpful device is a tree diagram, as seen in the next example.

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Example building numbers from a set of digits
Example: Building Numbers From a Set of Digits Dice

Find the number of three digit numbers that can be written using the digits from the set {2, 4, 6} assuming repeated digits are not allowed.

Solution

Second

Third

First

4

6

6

4

246

264

426

462

624

642

2

4

6

2

6

6

2

6 possibilities

2

4

4

2

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Other systematic listing methods
Other Systematic Listing Methods Dice

There are additional systematic ways to produce complete listings of possible results besides product tables and tree diagrams. One of these ways is shown in the next example.

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Example counting triangles in a figure
Example: Counting Triangles in a Figure Dice

How many triangles (of any size) are in the figure below?

D

Solution

E

C

One systematic approach is to label the points as shown, begin with A, and proceed in alphabetical

F

A

B

order to write all 3-letter combinations (like ABC, ABD, …), then cross out ones that are not triangles. There are 12 different triangles.

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Section 10 2
Section 10-2 Dice

  • Using the Fundamental Counting Principle

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Using the fundamental counting principle
Using the Fundamental Counting Principle Dice

  • Uniformity and the Fundamental Counting Principle

  • Factorials

  • Arrangements of Objects

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Uniformity criterion for multiple part tasks
Uniformity Criterion for Multiple-Part Tasks Dice

A multiple-part task is said to satisfy the uniformity criterion if the number of choices for any particular part is the same no matter which choices were selected for the previous parts.

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Fundamental counting principle
Fundamental Counting Principle Dice

When a task consists of k separate parts and satisfies the uniformity criterion, if the first part can be done in n1 ways, the second part can be done in n2 ways, and so on through the k th part, which can be done in nk ways, then the total number of ways to complete the task is given by the product

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Example two digit numbers
Example: Two-Digit Numbers Dice

How many two-digit numbers can be made from the set {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5}? (numbers can’t start with 0.)

Solution

There are 5(6) = 30 two-digit numbers.

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Example two digit numbers with restrictions
Example: Two-Digit Numbers with Restrictions Dice

How many two-digit numbers that do not contain repeated digits can be made from the set {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5} ?

Solution

There are 5(5) = 25 two-digit numbers.

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Example two digit numbers with restrictions1
Example: Two-Digit Numbers with Restrictions Dice

How many ways can you select two letters followed by three digits for an ID?

Solution

There are 26(26)(10)(10)(10) = 676,000 IDs possible.

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Factorials
Factorials Dice

For any counting number n, the product of all counting numbers from n down through 1 is called n factorial, and is denoted n!.

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Factorial formula
Factorial Formula Dice

For any counting number n, the quantity n factorial is given by

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Example
Example: Dice

Evaluate each expression.

a) 4! b) (4 – 1)! c)

Solution

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Definition of zero factorial
Definition of Zero Factorial Dice

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Arrangements of objects
Arrangements of Objects Dice

When finding the total number of ways to arrange a given number of distinct objects, we can use a factorial.

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Arrangements of n distinct objects
Arrangements of Dicen Distinct Objects

The total number of different ways to arrange n distinct objects is n!.

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Example arranging books
Example: Arranging Books Dice

How many ways can you line up 6 different books on a shelf?

Solution

The number of ways to arrange 6 distinct objects is 6! = 720.

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Arrangements of n objects containing look alikes
Arrangements of Dicen Objects Containing Look-Alikes

The number of distinguishable arrangements of n objects, where one or more subsets consist of look-alikes (say n1 are of one kind, n2 are of another kind, …, and nk are of yet another kind), is given by

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Example distinguishable arrangements
Example: Distinguishable Arrangements Dice

Determine the number of distinguishable arrangements of the letters of the word INITIALLY.

Solution

9 letters total

3 I’s and 2 L’s

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Section 10 3
Section 10-3 Dice

  • Using Permutations and Combinations

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Using permutations and combinations
Using Permutations and Combinations Dice

  • Permutations

  • Combinations

  • Guidelines on Which Method to Use

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Permutations
Permutations Dice

In the context of counting problems, arrangements are often called permutations; the number of permutations of n things taken r at a time is denoted nPr. Applying the fundamental counting principle to arrangements of this type gives

nPr= n(n – 1)(n – 2)…[n – (r – 1)].

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Factorial formula for permutations
Factorial Formula for Permutations Dice

The number of permutations, or arrangements, of n distinct things taken r at a time, where rn, can be calculated as

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Example permutations
Example: Permutations Dice

Evaluate each permutation.

a) 5P3 b) 6P6

Solution

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Example ids
Example: IDs Dice

How many ways can you select two letters followed by three digits for an ID if repeats are not allowed?

Solution

There are two parts:

1. Determine the set of two letters.

2. Determine the set of three digits.

Part 1

Part 2

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Example building numbers from a set of digits1
Example: Building Numbers From a Set of Digits Dice

How many four-digit numbers can be written using the numbers from the set {1, 3, 5, 7, 9} if repetitions are not allowed?

Solution

Repetitions are not allowed and order is important, so we use permutations:

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Combinations
Combinations Dice

In the context of counting problems, subsets, where order of elements makes no difference, are often called combinations; the number of combinations of n things taken r at a time is denoted nCr.

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Factorial formula for combinations
Factorial Formula for Combinations Dice

The number of combinations, or subsets, of n distinct things taken r at a time, where rn, can be calculated as

Note:

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Example combinations
Example: Combinations Dice

Evaluate each combination.

a) 5C3 b) 6C6

Solution

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Example finding the number of subsets
Example: Finding the Number of Subsets Dice

Find the number of different subsets of size 3 in the set {m, a, t, h, r, o, c, k, s}.

Solution

A subset of size 3 must have 3 distinct elements, so repetitions are not allowed. Order is not important.

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Example finding the number of subsets1
Example: Finding the Number of Subsets Dice

A common form of poker involves hands (sets) of five cards each, dealt from a deck consisting of 52 different cards. How many different 5-card hands are possible?

Solution

Repetitions are not allowed and order is not important.

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Guidelines on which method to use
Guidelines on Which Method to Use Dice

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Section 10 4
Section 10-4 Dice

  • Using Pascal’s Triangle

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Using pascal s triangle
Using Pascal’s Triangle Dice

  • Pascal’s Triangle

  • Applications

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Pascal s triangle
Pascal’s Triangle Dice

The triangular array on the next slide represents “random walks” that begin at START and proceed downward according to the following rule. At each circle (branch point), a coin is tossed. If it lands heads, we go downward to the left. If it lands tails, we go downward to the right. At each point, left an right are equally likely. In each circle the number of different routes that could bring us to that point are recorded.

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Pascal s triangle1
Pascal’s Triangle Dice

START

1

1

1

1

2

1

1

1

3

3

1

4

1

4

6

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Pascal s triangle2
Pascal’s Triangle Dice

Another way to generate the same pattern of numbers is to begin with 1s down both diagonals and then fill in the interior entries by adding the two numbers just above the given position. The pattern is shown on the next slide. This unending “triangular array of numbers is called Pascal’s triangle.

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Pascal s triangle3
Pascal’s Triangle Dice

row

and so on

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Combination values in pascal s triangle
Combination Values in Pascal’s Triangle Dice

The “triangle” possesses may properties. In counting applications, entry number r in row number n is equal to nCr – the number of combinations of n things taken r at a time. The next slide shows part of this correspondence.

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Combination values in pascal s triangle1
Combination Values in Pascal’s Triangle Dice

row

and so on

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Example applying pascal s triangle to counting people
Example: Applying Pascal’s Triangle to Counting People Dice

A group of seven people includes 3 women and 4 men. If five of these people are chosen at random, how many different samples of five people are possible?

Solution

Since this is really selecting 5 from a set of 7. We can read 7C5 from row 7 of Pascal’s triangle. The answer is 21

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Example applying pascal s triangle to counting people1
Example: Applying Pascal’s Triangle to Counting People Dice

Among the 21 possible samples of five people in the last example, how many of them would consist of exactly 2 women?

Solution

To select the women (2), we have 3C2 ways. To select the men (3), we have 4C3 ways. This gives a total of

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Example applying pascal s triangle to coin tossing
Example: Applying Pascal’s Triangle to Coin Tossing Dice

If six fair coins are tossed, in how many different ways could exactly four heads be obtained?

Solution

There are various “ways” of obtaining exactly four heads because the four heads can occur on different subsets of coins. The answer is the number of size-four subsets of a size-six subset. This answer is from row 6 of Pascal’s triangle:

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Summary of tossing six fair coins
Summary of Tossing Six Fair Coins Dice

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Section 10 5
Section 10-5 Dice

  • Counting Problems Involving “Not” and “Or”

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Counting problems involving not and or
Counting Problems Involving “Not” and “Or” Dice

  • Problems Involving “Not”

  • Problems Involving “Or”

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Counting problems involving not and or1
Counting Problems Involving “Not” and “Or” Dice

The counting techniques in this section, which can be thought of as indirect techniques, are based on some correspondences between set theory, logic, and arithmetic as shown on the next slide.

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Set theory logic arithmetic correspondences
Set Theory/Logic/Arithmetic Correspondences Dice

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Problems involving not
Problems Involving “Not” Dice

Suppose U is the set of all possible results of some type. Let A be the set of all those results that satisfy a given condition. The figure below suggests that

U

A

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Complements principle of counting
Complements Principle of Counting Dice

The number of ways a certain condition can be satisfied is the total number of possible results minus the number of ways the condition would not be satisfied. Symbolically, if A is any set within the universal set U, then

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Example counting the proper subsets of a set
Example: Counting the Proper Subsets of a Set Dice

For the set S = {c, a, l, u, t, o, r}, find the number of proper subsets.

Solution

A proper subset has less than seven elements. Subsets of many sizes would satisfy this condition. It is easier to consider the one subset that is not proper, namely S itself. S has a total of 27 = 128 subsets. From the complements principle, the number of proper subsets is 128 – 1 = 127.

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Example counting coin tossing
Example: Counting Coin Tossing Dice

If five fair coins are tossed, in how many ways can at least one tail be obtained?

Solution

By the fundamental counting principle, there are 25 = 32 different results possible. Exactly one of these fails to satisfy “at least one tail.” So from the complement principle we have the answer: 32 – 1 = 31.

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Problems involving or
Problems Involving “Or” Dice

Another technique to count indirectly is to count the elements of a set by breaking that set into simpler component parts. If the cardinal number formula (Section 2.4) says to find the number of elements in S by adding the number in A to the number in B. We must then subtract the number in the intersection if A and B are not disjoint. If A and B are disjoint, the subtraction is not necessary.

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Additive principle of counting
Additive Principle of Counting Dice

The number of ways that one or the other of two conditions could be satisfied is the number of ways one of them could be satisfied plus the number of ways the other could be satisfied minus the number of ways they could both be satisfied together.

If A and B are any two sets, then

If A and B are disjoint, then

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Example counting card hands
Example: Counting Card Hands Dice

How many five-card hands consist of all hearts or all black cards?

Solution

The sets all hearts and all black cards are disjoint. n(all hearts or all black cards)

= n(all hearts) + n(all black cards)

= 13C5 + 26C5

= 1,287 + 65,780 = 67,067

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Example counting selections from a diplomatic delegation
Example: Counting Selections From a Diplomatic Delegation Dice

A diplomatic delegation of 20 congressional members are categorized as to political party and gender. If one of the members is chosen randomly to be spokesperson for the group, in how many ways could that person be a Democrat or a man?

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Example counting selections from a diplomatic delegation1
Example: Counting Selections From a Diplomatic Delegation Dice

Solution

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Example counting three digit numbers with conditions
Example: Counting Three-Digit Numbers with Conditions Dice

How many three-digit counting numbers are multiples of 2 or multiples of 5?

Solution

There are 9(10)(5) = 450 three-digit multiples of 2. A multiple of 5 ends in a 0 or 5, so there are 9(10)(2) = 180 of those. A multiple of 2 and 5 must end in a 0. There are 9(10)(1) = 90 of those.

So we have 450 + 180 – 90 = 540 three-digit counting numbers that are multiples of 2 or 5.

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Example counting card drawing results
Example: Counting Card-Drawing Results Dice

A single card is drawn from a standard 52-card deck. a) In how many ways could it be a club or a queen?

b) In how many ways could it be a red card or a face

card?

Solution

a) club + queen – queen of clubs = 13 + 4 – 1 = 16?

b) red card + face card – red face cards

= 26 + 12 – 6 = 32

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Chapter 11 probability
Chapter 11: DiceProbability

  • 11.1 Basic Concepts

  • 11.2 Events Involving “Not” and “Or”

  • 11.3 Conditional Probability; Events Involving “And”

  • 11.4 Binomial Probability

  • 11.5 Expected Value

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Section 11 1
Section 11-1 Dice

  • Basic Concepts

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Basic concepts
Basic Concepts Dice

  • Historical Background

  • Probability

  • The Law of Large Numbers

  • Probability in Genetics

  • Odds

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Historical background
Historical Background Dice

Much of the early work in probability concerned games and gambling. One of the first to apply probability to matters other than gambling was Pierre Simon de Laplace, who is often credited with being the “father” of probability theory. In the twentieth century a coherent mathematical theory of probability was developed through people such as Chebyshev, Markov, and Kolmogorov.

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Probability
Probability Dice

The study of probability is concerned with random phenomena. Even though we cannot be certain whether a given result will occur, we often can obtain a good measure of its likelihood, or probability.

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Probability1
Probability Dice

In the study of probability, any observation, or measurement, of a random phenomenon is an experiment. The possible results of the experiment are called outcomes, and the set of all possible outcomes is called the sample space.

Usually we are interested in some particular collection of the possible outcomes. Any such subset of the sample space is called an event.

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Example tossing a coin
Example: Tossing a Coin Dice

If a single fair coin is tossed, find the probability that it will land heads up.

Solution

The sample space S = {h, t}, and the event whose probability we seek is E = {h}.

P(heads) = P(E) = 1/2.

Since no coin flipping was actually involved, the desired probability was obtained theoretically.

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Theoretical probability formula
Theoretical Probability Formula Dice

If all outcomes in a sample space S are equally likely, and E is an event within that sample space, then the theoretical probability of the event E is given by

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Example flipping a cup
Example: Flipping a Cup Dice

A cup is flipped 100 times. It lands on its side 84 times, on its bottom 6 times, and on its top 10 times. Find the probability that it will land on its top.

Solution

From the experiment it appears that

P(top) = 10/100 = 1/10.

This is an example of experimental, or empirical probability.

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Empirical probability formula
Empirical Probability Formula Dice

If E is an event that may happen when an experiment is performed, then the empirical probability of event E is given by

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Example card hands
Example: Card Hands Dice

There are 2,598,960 possible hands in poker. If there are 36 possible ways to have a straight flush, find the probability of being dealt a straight flush.

Solution

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Example gender of a student
Example: Gender of a Student Dice

A school has 820 male students and 835 female students. If a student from the school is selected at random, what is the probability that the student would be a female?

Solution

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The law of large numbers
The Law of Large Numbers Dice

As an experiment is repeated more and more times, the proportion of outcomes favorable to any particular event will tend to come closer and closer to the theoretical probability of that event.

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Probability in genetics
Probability in Genetics Dice

Gregor Mendel, an Austrian monk used the idea of randomness to establish the study of genetics. To study the flower color of certain pea plants he found that: Pure red crossed with pure white produces red.

Mendel theorized that red is “dominant” (symbolized by R), while white is recessive (symbolized by r). The pure red parent carried only genes for red (R), and the pure white parent carried only genes for white (r).

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Probability in genetics1
Probability in Genetics Dice

Every offspring receives one gene from each parent which leads to the tables below. Every second generation is red because R is dominant.

1st to 2nd Generation

2nd to 3rd Generation

offspring

offspring

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Example probability of flower color
Example: Probability of Flower Color Dice

Referring to the 2nd to 3rd generation table (previous slide), determine the probability that a third generation will be

a) red b) white

Base the probability on the sample space of equally likely outcomes: S = {RR, Rr, rR, rr}.

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Example probability of flower color1
Example: Probability of Flower Color Dice

Solution

a) Since red dominates white, any combination with R will be red. Three out of four have an R, so P(red) = 3/4.

b) Only one combination rr has no gene for red, so P(white) = 1/4.

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Odds Dice

Odds compare the number of favorable outcomes to the number of unfavorable outcomes. Odds are commonly quoted in horse racing, lotteries, and most other gambling situations.

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Odds Dice

If all outcomes in a sample space are equally likely, a of them are favorable to the event E, and the remaining b outcomes are unfavorable to E, then the oddsin favor of E are a to b, and the odds against E are b to a.

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Example odds
Example: Odds Dice

200 tickets were sold for a drawing to win a new television. If Matt purchased 10 of the tickets, what are the odds in favor of Matt’s winning the television?

Solution

Matt has 10 chances to win and 190 chances to lose. The odds in favor of winning are 10 to 190, or 1 to 19.

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Example converting probability to odds
Example: Converting Probability to Odds Dice

Suppose the probability of rain today is .43. Give this information in terms of odds.

Solution

We can say that

43 out of 100 outcomes are favorable, so 100 – 43 = 57 are unfavorable. The odds in favor of rain are 43 to 57 and the odds against rain are 57 to 43.

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Example converting odds to probability
Example: Converting Odds to Probability Dice

Your odds of completing College Algebra class are 16 to 9. What is the probability that you will complete the class?

Solution

There are 16 favorable outcomes and 9 unfavorable. This gives 25 possible outcomes. So

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Section 11 2
Section 11-2 Dice

  • Events Involving “Not” and “Or”

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Events involving not and or
Events Involving “Not” and “Or” Dice

  • Properties of Probability

  • Events Involving “Not”

  • Events Involving “Or”

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Properties of probability
Properties of Probability Dice

Let E be an event from the sample space S. That is, E is a subset of S. Then the following properties hold.

(The probability of an event is between 0 and 1, inclusive.)

(The probability of an impossible event is 0.)

(The probability of a certain event is 1.)

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Example rolling a die
Example: Rolling a Die Dice

When a single fair die is rolled, find the probability of each event.

a) the number 3 is rolled

b) a number other than 3 is rolled

c) the number 7 is rolled

d) a number less than 7 is rolled

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Example rolling a die1
Example: Rolling a Die Dice

Solution

The outcome for the die has six possibilities: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

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Events involving not
Events Involving “Not” Dice

The table on the next slide shows the correspondences that are the basis for the probability rules developed in this section. For example, the probability of an event not happening involves the complement and subtraction.

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Correspondences
Correspondences Dice

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Probability of a complement
Probability of a Complement Dice

The probability that an event E will not occur is equal to one minus the probability that it will occur.

E

S

So we have

and

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Example complement
Example: Complement Dice

When a single card is drawn from a standard 52-card deck, what is the probability that is will not be an ace?

Solution

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Events involving or
Events Involving “Or” Dice

Probability of one event or another should involve the union and addition.

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Mutually exclusive events
Mutually Exclusive Events Dice

Two events A and B are mutually exclusive events if they have no outcomes in common. (Mutually exclusive events cannot occur simultaneously.)

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Addition rule of probability for a or b
Addition Rule of Probability (for DiceA or B)

If A and B are any two events, then

If A and B are mutually exclusive, then

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Example probability involving or
Example: Probability Involving “Or” Dice

When a single card is drawn from a standard 52-card deck, what is the probability that it will be a king or a diamond?

Solution

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Example probability involving or1
Example: Probability Involving “Or” Dice

If a single die is rolled, what is the probability of a 2 or odd?

Solution

These are mutually exclusive events.

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Chapter 11 probability1
Chapter 11: DiceProbability

  • 11.1 Basic Concepts

  • 11.2 Events Involving “Not” and “Or”

  • 11.3 Conditional Probability; Events Involving “And”

  • 11.4 Binomial Probability

  • 11.5 Expected Value

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Section 11 3
Section 11-3 Dice

  • Conditional Probability; Events Involving “And”

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Conditional probability events involving and
Conditional Probability; Events Involving “And” Dice

  • Conditional Probability

  • Events Involving “And”

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Conditional probability
Conditional Probability Dice

Sometimes the probability of an event must be computed using the knowledge that some other event has happened (or is happening, or will happen – the timing is not important). This type of probability is called conditional probability.

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Conditional probability1
Conditional Probability Dice

The probability of event B, computed on the assumption that event A has happened, is called the conditional probability of B, given A, and is denoted P(B | A).

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Example selecting from a set of numbers
Example: Selecting From a Set of Numbers Dice

From the sample space S = {2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9}, a single number is to be selected randomly. Given the events

A: selected number is odd, and

B selected number is a multiple of 3.

find each probability.

a) P(B)

b) P(A and B)

c) P(B | A)

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Example selecting from a set of numbers1
Example: Selecting From a Set of Numbers Dice

Solution

a) B = {3, 6, 9}, so P(B) = 3/8

b) P(A and B) = {3, 5, 7, 9} {3, 6, 9} = {3, 9}, so

P(A and B) = 2/8 = 1/4

c) The given condition A reduces the sample space

to {3, 5, 7, 9}, so P(B | A) = 2/4 = 1/2

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Conditional probability formula
Conditional Probability Formula Dice

The conditional probability of B, given A, and is given by

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Example probability in a family
Example: Probability in a Family Dice

Given a family with two children, find the probability that both are boys, given that at least one is a boy.

Solution

Define S = {gg, gb, bg, bb}, A = {gb, bg, bb}, and B = {bb}.

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Independent events
Independent Events Dice

Two events A and B are called independent events if knowledge about the occurrence of one of them has no effect on the probability of the other one, that is, if

P(B | A) = P(B), or equivalently

P(A | B) = P(A).

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Example checking for independence
Example: Checking for Independence Dice

A single card is to be drawn from a standard 52-card deck. Given the events

A: the selected card is an ace

B: the selected card is red

a) Find P(B).

b) Find P(B | A).

c) Determine whether events A and B are independent.

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Example checking for independence1
Example: Checking for Independence Dice

Solution

c. Because P(B | A) = P(B), events A and B are independent.

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Events involving and
Events Involving “And” Dice

If we multiply both sides of the conditional probability formula by P(A), we obtain an expression for P(A and B). The calculation of P(A and B) is simpler when A and B are independent.

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Multiplication rule of probability
Multiplication Rule of Probability Dice

If A and B are any two events, then

If A and B are independent, then

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Example selecting from an jar of balls
Example: Selecting From an Jar of Balls Dice

Jeff draws balls from the jar below. He draws two balls without replacement. Find the probability that he draws a red ball and then a blue ball, in that order.

4 red

3 blue

2 yellow

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Example selecting from an jar of balls1
Example: Selecting From an Jar of Balls Dice

Solution

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Example selecting from an jar of balls2
Example: Selecting From an Jar of Balls Dice

Jeff draws balls from the jar below. He draws two balls, this time with replacement. Find the probability that he gets a red and then a blue ball, in that order.

4 red

3 blue

2 yellow

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Example selecting from an jar of balls3
Example: Selecting From an Jar of Balls Dice

Solution

Because the ball is replaced, repetitions are allowed. In this case, event B2 is independent of R1.

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Section 11 4
Section 11-4 Dice

  • Binomial Probability

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Binomial probability
Binomial Probability Dice

  • Binomial Probability Distribution

  • Binomial Probability Formula

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Binomial probability distribution
Binomial Probability Distribution Dice

The spinner below is spun twice and we are interested in the number of times a 2 is obtained (assume each sector is equally likely).

Think of outcome 2 as a “success” and outcomes 1 and 3 as “failures.” The sample space is

2

1

3

S = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (2, 1), (2, 2),

(2, 3), (3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3)}.

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Binomial probability distribution1
Binomial Probability Distribution Dice

When the outcomes of an experiment are divided into just two categories, success and failure, the associated probabilities are called “binomial.” Repeated trials of the experiment, where the probability of success remains constant throughout all repetitions, are also known as Bernoulli trials.

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Binomial probability distribution2
Binomial Probability Distribution Dice

If x denotes the number of 2s occurring on each pair of spins, then x is an example of a random variable. In S, the number of 2s is 0 in four cases, 1 in four cases, and 2 in one case. Because the table on the next slide includes all the possible values of x and their probabilities it is an example of a probability distribution. In this case, it is a binomial probability distribution.

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Binomial probability formula
Binomial Probability Formula Dice

In general, let

n = the number of repeated trials,

p = the probability of success on any given trial,

q = 1 – p = the probability of failure on any given trial,

and x = the number of successes that occur.

Note that p remains fixed throughout all n trials. This means that all trials are independent. In general, x, successes can be assigned among n repeated trials in nCxdifferent ways.

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Binomial probability formula1
Binomial Probability Formula Dice

When n independent repeated trials occur, where

p = probability of success and

q = probability of failure

with p and q (where q = 1 – p) remaining constant throughout all n trials, the probability of exactly x successes is given by

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Example coin tossing
Example: Coin Tossing Dice

Find the probability of obtaining exactly three heads in five tosses of a fair coin.

Solution

This is a binomial experiment with n = 5, p = 1/2, q = 1/2, and x = 3.

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Example rolling a die2
Example: Rolling a Die Dice

Find the probability of obtaining exactly two 3’s in six rolls of a fair die.

Solution

This is a binomial experiment with n = 6, p = 1/6, q = 5/6, and x = 2.

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Example rolling a die3
Example: Rolling a Die Dice

Find the probability of obtaining less than two 3’s in six rolls of a fair die.

Solution

We have n = 6, p = 1/6, q = 5/6, and x < 2.

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Example baseball hits
Example: Baseball Hits Dice

A baseball player has a well-established batting average of .250. In the next series he will bat 10 times. Find the probability that he will get more than two hits.

Solution

In this case n = 10, p = .250, q = .750, and x > 2.

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Example baseball hits1
Example: Baseball Hits Dice

Solution(continued)

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Section 11 5
Section 11-5 Dice

  • Expected Value

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Expected value
Expected Value Dice

  • Expected Value

  • Games and Gambling

  • Investments

  • Business and Insurance

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Expected value1
Expected Value Dice

Children in third grade were surveyed and told to pick the number of hours that they play electronic games each day. The probability distribution is given below.

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Expected value2
Expected Value Dice

Compute a “weighted average” by multiplying each possible time value by its probability and then adding the products.

1.1 hours is the expected value (or the mathematical expectation) of the quantity of time spent playing electronic games.

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Expected value3
Expected Value Dice

If a random variable x can have any of the values x1, x2 , x3 ,…, xn, and the corresponding probabilities of these values occurring are

P(x1), P(x2), P(x3), …, P(xn), then the expected value of xis given by

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Example finding expected value
Example: Finding Expected Value Dice

Find the expected number of boys for a three-child family. Assume girls and boys are equally likely.

Solution

S = {ggg, ggb, gbg, bgg, gbb, bgb, bbg, bbb}

The probability distribution is on the right.

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Example finding expected value1
Example: Finding Expected Value Dice

Solution(continued)

The expected value is the sum of the third column:

So the expected number of boys is 1.5.

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Example finding expected winnings
Example: Finding Expected Winnings Dice

A player pays $3 to play the following game: He rolls a die and receives $7 if he tosses a 6 and $1 for anything else. Find the player’s expected net winnings for the game.

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Example finding expected winnings1
Example: Finding Expected Winnings Dice

Solution

The information for the game is displayed below.

Expected value: E(x) = –$6/6 = –$1.00

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Games and gambling
Games and Gambling Dice

A game in which the expected net winnings are zero is called a fair game. A game with negative expected winnings is unfair against the player. A game with positive expected net winnings is unfair in favor of the player.

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Example finding the cost for a fair game
Example: Finding the Cost for a Fair Game Dice

What should the game in the previous example cost so that it is a fair game?

Solution

Because the cost of $3 resulted in a net loss of $1, we can conclude that the $3 cost was $1 too high. A fair cost to play the game would be $3 – $1 = $2.

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Investments
Investments Dice

Expected value can be a useful tool for evaluating investment opportunities.

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Example expected investment profits
Example: Expected Investment Profits Dice

Mark is going to invest in the stock of one of the two companies below. Based on his research, a $6000 investment could give the following returns.

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Example expected investment profits1
Example: Expected Investment Profits Dice

Find the expected profit (or loss) for each of the two stocks.

Solution

ABC: –$400(.2) + $800(.5) + $1300(.3) = $710

PDQ: $600(.8) + $1000(.2) = $680

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Business and insurance
Business and Insurance Dice

Expected value can be used to help make decisions in various areas of business, including insurance.

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Example expected lumber revenue
Example: Expected Lumber Revenue Dice

A lumber wholesaler is planning on purchasing a load of lumber. He calculates that the probabilities of reselling the load for $9500, $9000, or $8500 are .25, .60, and .15, respectfully. In order to ensure an expected profit of at least $2500, how much can he afford to pay for the load?

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Example expected lumber revenue1
Example: Expected Lumber Revenue Dice

Solution

The expected revenue from sales can be found below.

Expected revenue: E(x) = $9050

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Example expected lumber revenue2
Example: Expected Lumber Revenue Dice

Solution(continued)

profit = revenue – cost or cost = profit – revenue

To have an expected profit of $2500, he can pay up to $9050 – $2500 = $6550.

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