Introduction to Causal Inference in the Social Sciences. Yu Xie The University of Michigan. Causal Questions. Example A: Is UM’s affirmative action policy educationally beneficial to its students? Example B: Did the war in Iraq help or harm world peace in the long run?
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SES
Education
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Head Start
where d1 =E(Y1T – Y1C), d0 =E(Y0T – Y0C).
Advantages of Structural Approach:
Y
X
Z
U
Latent Rule
New Entrants to the State Sector (522) Variation
State Sector
Stayers
(1337)
Experienced Workers (1197)
Stayers
(1068)
Stayers
(1590)
p1=0.11
p2=0.16
d=1
d=2
Market Sector
Later Entrants
(253)
Early Birds
(129)
Early Birds
(129)
1978
1987
1996
Year
Figure 1. Flow Chart of Labor Market Transitions in China, 1978 – 1996.