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Two Case Studies: GBR and MPB Simulations

Two Case Studies: GBR and MPB Simulations. Today’s Agenda. The continuing crisis Simulation Overview Great Bear Rainforest Case Mountain Pine Beetle Case. Mean annual precipitation. Simulation. Gbr ECOSYSTEM-BASED MANAGEMENT. Conversion to Area-Based tenure.

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Two Case Studies: GBR and MPB Simulations

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  1. Two Case Studies: GBR and MPB Simulations

  2. Today’s Agenda • The continuing crisis • Simulation Overview • Great Bear Rainforest Case • Mountain Pine Beetle Case Mean annual precipitation

  3. Simulation Gbr ECOSYSTEM-BASED MANAGEMENT Conversion to Area-Based tenure The Minister of Forests, Land, and Natural Resource Operations  has proposed, as a way to improve forest management and increase the midterm timber supply in regions affected by the mountain pine beetle epidemic, to convert a number of volume-based licences to area-based ones.  The Minister has directed a multistakeholder body to forge a consensus on a new tenure system by the end of the calendar year. • 1/3 of GBR is protected, 2/3 operate under EBM, one key aspect of which is old growth representation. In March 2009, this amount was set at 50%, with some exemptions, even though a consensus science group recommended the amount be 70%.  We have been delegated the task of establishing the appropriate level of old growth forest protection in the region.

  4. Simulation - Objectives • develop practical skills -- teamwork, research, and communication -- necessary for constructive participation in policy development • develop a deep understanding of one crucial component of forest policy. • Have a lot of fun learning

  5. Simulation – Organization GBR Ecosystem Based Management Conversion to area-based tenure Wilderness Tourism Association of BC ForestEthics Cariboo-Chilcotin Conservation Society Council of Forest Industries Canfor Interior Logging Association United Steelworkers Carrier Sekani Tribal Council First Nations Forestry Council • Greenpeace • Sierra Club of BC • Coast Forest Products Association • Truck Loggers Association • Western Forest Products • United Steelworkers • Central and North Coast Communities • Nanwakolas Council • Coastal First Nations

  6. Simulation –Process • meet in groups • required readings • consult "real world" versions of their groups • select a delegate (and an alternate) to speak and negotiate for them during the consultation. • evening, mock multistakeholderconsultation attendance required for all participants : • EBM GBR Monday November 18 • Area-based tenure Tuesday, November 19

  7. Simulation - Assessment • 10% for the group brief not to exceed 2000 words. This is a group project, which clearly and concisely presents the group’s initial position on how to revise the rules. It should contain references.  The briefs are due November 14. • 10% for each student’s participation in the group. This grade will be based on the recommendations for grades that students provide for each other • 10% for the performance of each group in the consultation.

  8. BC is 2 (or more) forest provinces

  9. Case Study I: the Great Bear Rainforest

  10. Context The Place The Campaign The process The result EBM

  11. GBR: the place • Central and North Coast regions of BC • Globally significant ecosystem: largest areas of remaining intact coastal temperate rainforest in the world • Valuable timber resources • Remote communities • Unresolved aboriginal land claims

  12. GBR: The Campaign • 1995 - Enviros launch campaign to protect “Great Bear Rainforest” • direct action • market-based campaign targeting large purchasers

  13. GBR: Planning • 1996 – Land and Resource Management Plan (LRMP) - Multi-stakeholder planning process • enviros boycott

  14. GBR: enviro-industry cooperation • Enviros’ market campaign forces industry into (secret) negotiations outside of formal process • 1998: Enviros and industry agree to cease-fire: • industry agrees to suspend logging in intact areas • engos agree to suspend market campaign and join LRMP process

  15. GBR: 2001 framework agreement • April 2001 Framework Agreement (BC Gov, FN, engos, companies) • protected areas (20%) • deferrals (11%) • remainder covered by ecosystem-based management • established independent “Coast Information Team” • 2004: Land and Resource Management Plan recommendations • 2004-2005 – Government to Government negotiations • Crown government and First Nations

  16. GBR: 2006 Announcement

  17. land base of 6.4 million ha (16 million acres)

  18. GBR: Coast Information Team Definition of EBM • general definition • “… an adaptive approach to managing human activities that seeks to ensure the coexistence of healthy, fully functioning ecosystems and human communities. Coast Information Team, EBM Framework

  19. Implementation issue: deciding specific EBM Rules • Definition of EBM uncertain • Parties commit to full implementation of EBM by March 2009 • Example of outstanding issue – old growth representation: • Coast Information Team, enviros say 70% • LRMPs, industry, government – and 2006 policy says 30% • March2009: 50% with exemptions, new commitment to “full implementation” by 2014

  20. Insights from GBR we’ll address • One of most important land use decisions • Extraordinary instance of collaborative decisionmaking • Power shift created by enviros’ use of international market pressures • Landmark co-jurisdictional arrangements with First Nations • Challenging issues in policy design • Revealing implementation challenges

  21. Environmental Change:Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemic 22

  22. MPB epidemic: 2 causes • fire suppression increase volume of vulnerable host organisms • area covered by mature pine increased by a factor of 3 from 1910-2000 • climate change – decline in cold weather • In mid-winter, temperatures must consistently be below -35-40 C for several straight days to have any effect • In the early fall or late spring, sustained temperatures of -25 C can kill

  23. MPB epidemic – current and projected impact • Proportion of lodgepole pine of the interior timber harvesting land base: 50% • 51% of the total provincial mature merchantable pine volume killed by 2010 • 59% of pine will be killed by 2016 • 61% by 2021

  24. Policy Response • AAC Uplifts (about 14 million m3 – 28% across interior) • Support for Beetle Action Coalitions • Silviculture Investments • Surveys, Reforestation, fertilization • Capitalizing on new opportunities (e.g. Bioenergy, carbon trading) • Research – Silviculture, wildfire, hydrology. • Inventory Investments

  25. MPB Timber Supply Impact Summary (2011) • 2010 provincial AAC: 78.6 million m3 * • Coast 17.1 million m3 • Interior AAC: 61.5 million m3 • 50.6 million m3 pre-uplift • 2030 provincial AAC: 57.5 million m3 • 40.4 million m3 interior • “fall-down” below pre-uplift: 10.1 million m3 • 20% in interior (higher in some areas) • 14% provincially

  26. Area-based tenure – recent origins • Explosion at mill in Burns Lake, BC – Babine Forest Products owned by Hampton Affiliates • Justifying rebuilding of mill thought to require greater assurance of access to timber • Memo leaked with a number of controversial proposals • Response: Special Committee on Timber Supply

  27. Special Committee on Timber Supply • Bipartisan committee of Member of Legislative Assembly • Hearings throughout province

  28. SCTS – government response

  29. Spring 2013 controversy • Clark government introduces Bill 8 that would amend Forest Act to allow the minister to accept application to convert FLs to TFLs • NDP, environmentalists express opposition • Proposal dropped, with promise to bring it back in when legislature is next in session (LOL)

  30. Next week – First Nations • Tuesday: Jason Forsyth, George Hoberg, and Laura Bird, “In Search of Certainty: A Decade of Shifting Strategies for Accommodating First Nations in Forest Policy, 2001-11,” pp. 299-312 in Aboriginal Peoples and Forest Lands in Canada, edited by D.B. Tindall, Ronald L. Trosper and Pamela Perreault., UBC Press 2013 – on sale separately in the department • Wednesday: TRC (next slide) • Thursday: Supreme Court of Canada, Haida Nation v. British Columbia (Minister of Forests), Supreme Court of Canada November 2004

  31. September 18 • “F” (for Forestry) section of the Coliseum – come proudly wearing your UBC Forestry t-shirts. • Highlights of the program that include powerful presentations crucial for gaining understanding of the issues include: • 9am The Welcome and Opening Ceremonies • 11am Be the Change: Young People Healing the Past and Building the Future • 1pm Commissioners Sharing Panel • 3pm Expressions of Reconciliation, including UBC President, Professor Toope • Throughout the day, you may view exhibits and participate in other ways as well. • The full program is available at http://irsi.aboriginal.ubc.ca/files/2013/09/TRCprogram.pdf

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