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Putin is back: Russian Foreign Policy – Continuity or Change?

Putin is back: Russian Foreign Policy – Continuity or Change?. New President, New Russia: What Next? 14.03.2012 Hanna Smith Aleksanteri Instituutti, Helsingin yliopisto. Politics of Putin. Russia offers: pragmatism, predictability and the supremacy of international law.

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Putin is back: Russian Foreign Policy – Continuity or Change?

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  1. Putin is back:Russian Foreign Policy – Continuity or Change? New President, New Russia: What Next? 14.03.2012 Hanna Smith Aleksanteri Instituutti, Helsingin yliopisto

  2. Politics of Putin • Russia offers: pragmatism, predictability and the supremacy of international law. • Russia expects: Respect and honesty • ”Weak will be beaten” • ”There is no such think as a former KGB man” • The world is an extremely risky and hostile environment • Russia is an independent power centre guided by its own national interests • A serious man, who never changes his view, whatever the political environment.

  3. SUNRISE - East • China, China, China (Russia’s desire to develop Siberia and the Far East, economic incentives) • India (strategic partners) – common in being different • Russian chairmanship in G20 in 2013 • No need to challenge the sovereignty of nations + variety of values • US foreign policy also turning towards the Asia-Pacific region

  4. DAYTIME – the lands between • The area of the former Soviet Union was, is and will be Russia’s priority • Putin called for greater participation in Afghanistan to block the routes of drug trafficking and financial flows to terrorists (troops withdrawal 2014?) • Battle for Central Asia • Eurasian Union (free-trade zone, a common space of language, science, and culture, infrastructure • The carrot-and-stick approach (e.g. Azerbaijan, higher tariffs and fees for Russian energy, the threat of labour immigrants)

  5. SUNSET - West • Russia is an inalienable and organic part of Greater Europe and of the European civilization, and Russian citizens think of themselves as Europeans. BUT • Arab Spring (esp.Syria) • European credit crisis • Iran's nuclear program (room to manoeuvre) • Missile programme (single most significant factor) • The role of NATO • It’s up to US how relations will develop

  6. Conclusions • Change in style: Putin's style is harsher, more forceful and also more cynical than that of outgoing president Dmitry Medvedev. • Continuity in substance: National interests. Sovereignty. International Law. • Change in priorities: West to East from modernization alliances to strategic partners • Continuity is in belief: Russia is a great power and one day will be treated so. From Great Power to Superpower?

  7. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

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