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Networking in 5-50 Years – applications and requirements. Henning Schulzrinne Columbia University [email protected] Overview. Infrastructure, once established, tends to change very slowly Hypothesis: all major communications modes have been explored

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networking in 5 50 years applications and requirements

Networking in 5-50 Years – applications and requirements

Henning Schulzrinne

Columbia University

[email protected]

Future of Networking

overview
Overview
  • Infrastructure, once established, tends to change very slowly
  • Hypothesis:
    • all major communications modes have been explored
    • replacement dedicated  IP largely complete
  • Networking lacks obvious drivers of other technologies:
    • energy costs, pollution  fuel cells
    • higher speed  jet engine
  • New applications not necessarily bandwidth-driven, but cost-driven
  • Reliability is the real QoS

Future of Networking

standardization
Standardization
  • Really two facets of standardization:
    • public, interoperable description of protocol, but possibly many (Tanenbaum)
    • reduction to 1-3 common technologies
      • LAN: Arcnet, tokenring, ATM, FDDI, DQDB, …  Ethernet
      • WAN: IP, X.25, OSI  IP
  • Have reached phase 2 in most cases, with RPC (SOAP) and presentation layer (XML) most recent \'conversions\'

Future of Networking

technologies at 30 years
Technologies at ~30 years
  • Other technologies at similar maturity level:
    • air planes: 1903 – 1938 (Stratoliner)
    • cars: 1876 – 1908 (Model T)
    • analog telephones: 1876 – 1915 (transcontinental telephone)
    • railroad: 1800s -- ?

Future of Networking

observations on progress
Observations on progress
  • 1960s: military  professional  consumer
    • now, often reversed
  • Oscillate: convergence  divergence
    • continued convergence clearly at physical layer
    • niches larger  support separate networks
  • Communications technologies rarely disappear (as long as operational cost is low):
    • exceptions:
      • telex, telegram, semaphores  fax, email
      • X.25 + OSI, X.400  IP, SMTP
    • analog cell phones

Future of Networking

history of networking
History of networking
  • History of networking = non-network applications migrate
    • postal & intracompany mail, fax  email, IM
    • broadcast: TV, radio
    • interactive voice/video communication  VoIP
    • information access  web, P2P
    • disk access  iSCSI, Fiberchannel-over-IP

Future of Networking

network evolution
Network evolution
  • Only three modes, now thoroughly explored:
    • packet/cell-based
    • message-based (application data units)
    • session-based (circuits)
  • Replace specialized networks
    • left to do: embedded systems
      • need cost(CPU + network) < $10
      • cars
      • industrial (manufacturing) control
      • commercial buildings (lighting, HVAC, security; now LONworks)
      • remote controls, light switches
      • keys replaced by biometrics

Future of Networking

new applications
New applications
  • New bandwidth-intensive applications
    • Reality-based networking
    • (security) cameras
  • Distributed games often require only low-bandwidth control information
    • current game traffic ~ VoIP
  • Computation vs. storage vs. communications
    • communications cost has decreased less rapidly than storage costs

Future of Networking

commercial access cost t1
Commercial access cost (T1)

Future of Networking

disk storage cost ide
Disk storage cost (IDE)

Future of Networking

transition of networking
Transition of networking
  • Maturity  cost dominates
    • can get any number of bits anywhere, but at considerable cost and complexity
    • casually usable bit density still very low
  • Specialized  commodity
    • OPEX (= people) dominates
    • installed and run by \'amateurs\'
    • need low complexity, high reliability

Future of Networking

security challenges
Security challenges
  • DOS, security attacks  permissions-based communications
    • only allow modest rates without asking
    • effectively, back to circuit-switched
  • Higher-level security services  more application-layer access via gateways, proxies, …
  • User identity
    • problem is not availability, but rather over-abundance

Future of Networking

scaling
Scaling
  • Scaling is only backbone problem
  • Depends on network evolution:
    • continuing addition of AS to flat space  deep trouble
    • additional hierarchy

Future of Networking

slide16
QoS
  • QoS is meaningless to users
  • care about service availability  reliability
  • as more and more value depends on network services, can\'t afford random downtimes

Future of Networking

wildcards
Wildcards
  • Quantum computing
  • Teleportation

Future of Networking

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