Maize production outlook and implications for food security
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Maize Production Outlook and Implications for Food Security. TEGEMEO INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURAL POLICY AND DEVELOPMENT, EGERTON UNIVERSITY September 18, 2009. Presentation outline. Maize production and consumption trends in Kenya Production expectations for 2009/2010 Stock management issues

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Maize Production Outlook and Implications for Food Security

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Maize production outlook and implications for food security

Maize Production Outlook and Implications for Food Security

TEGEMEO INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURAL POLICY AND DEVELOPMENT, EGERTON UNIVERSITY

September 18, 2009


Presentation outline

Presentation outline

  • Maize production and consumption trends in Kenya

  • Production expectations for 2009/2010

  • Stock management issues

  • Policy implications


Maize production and consumption trends 2000 2008

Maize production and consumption trends (2000-2008)


National maize production and consumption trends 2000 2008

National maize production and consumption trends: 2000-2008

Source: Economic Survey 2008; MOA; & Tegemeo computations


Contribution of regions to national production 2000 2008

Contribution of regions to national production: 2000-2008

Source: Ministry of Agriculture

Rift Valley: increasingly an important source of grain

Nyanza: declining contribution to production


Expected maize production shortfall for the 2009 2010 season

Expected maize production shortfall for the 2009/2010 season


Expected yield based on assessment of current maize crop long rains season 2009

Expected yield based on assessment of current maize crop, long rains season 2009


Tegemeo s estimation of maize production for long rains 2009

Tegemeo’s estimation of maize production for long rains 2009

N/B: Production estimates and based on acreage figures provided by the MOA


Production estimates for 2009 2010

Production estimates for 2009/2010

  • Best case scenario for 2009/2010 crop year is about 23m bags against a consumption of >37m bags

    • About 17.6m bags from the long rains season. This is the best scenario with adequate rainfall in areas where the crop was either at knee high, tasselling or milk stage as at beginning of Sept. 2009.

    • About 6m bags from the short-rains season with adequate rains; production is normally 15% of average annual production

  • Worst case scenario

    • Inadequate rainfall - could be very grim


Need for adjustments

Need for adjustments

  • Estimated annual consumption of 37m bags exclude green maize YET our production assessment of 23m bags for 2009/2010 is not adjusted for green maize harvests

    • Reported levels of green maize sales :

      • Nandi South: up to 60%

      • Bomet/Trans-Mara: 40%

      • Trans-Nzoia: significant

      • Reasons: profitable; fear of rotting due to rains; decline in production of green maize in Central province

  • Case for El-Nino

    • Potential destruction of long rain crop in the fields (R/valley)

    • Potential gains for short season crop

  • Production from irrigation

    • Govt indicated some maize production from irrigation by December (minimal)


  • Bridging the production shortfall imports

    Bridging the production shortfall: Imports

    Under the best case scenario, Kenya will experience a shortfall of about 14m bags in the 2009/2010 cropping year


    Maize production outlook and implications for food security

    Maize stocks and management


    Maize stocks bags as at jul 30 th 2009

    Maize stocks (bags) as at Jul 30th 2009

    Source: Ministry of Agriculture


    Stock management issue

    Stock management issue

    • No budgetary allocation made for food importation for SGR in 2009/2010 (source: Ministry of Finance)

    • Inadequate SGR (1.8m vs. recommended 8m bags)

      • NCPB not selling maize with implications on its price stabilization role

    • Ksh.1 bn allocated for generalized food subsidy for urban poor

    • Ksh. 5.35 bn allocated for general food relief for rural poor

    • Total Ksh. 6.35 bn can purchase about 2.5m bags of maize

      • Can feed 10 million people for only 3 months


    How do we raise maize stocks policy implications

    How do we raise maize stocks?/policy implications

    • 2008 experience:

      • 10m bags needed to be imported by May 2008 but not done until consequences were felt

      • Duty waiver on maize not granted until Jan 2009

      • Effects of the waiver on maize prices were not evident until 5 months later


    How do we raise maize stocks policy implications1

    How do we raise maize stocks?/policy implications

    • What to consider when importing

      • Quicker response when food balance indicates need for imports

        • This potentially requires major budgetary allocation when major deficits are expected

      • Time lag between import order and arrival of grain in the country side (~2 months)

      • Information on supply of grains and movements in grain world prices

      • Duty on until end of June 2010

        • Review situation before removal


    Policy suggestions for dealing with production shortfalls

    Policy suggestions for dealing with production shortfalls


    Policy suggestions

    Policy suggestions

    • Short-term

      • Expansion of relief efforts

        • Increase SGR

        • Increase food relief supplies to the most vulnerable

      • Stimulating production

        • Targeted fertilizer/seed support for short rains season

        • Expansion of irrigation

      • Maintaining duty waiver

        • Allow adequate/affordable imports

    • Long-term

      • Productivity enhancing investments

        • Expansion of irrigation; roads & railway infrastructure; R&D

        • Improving access to productivity enhancing inputs

          • Working with private sector to improve access to seeds and fertilizers by farmers


    Thank you

    Thank You


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