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Stella Systems Thinking Modelling. Grace Skrzypiec. Modelling. Models provide a “picture” or representation of “reality”. Modelling. “All Models are ‘wrong’, some models are useful”. …. W. Edwards Deming. Modelling. Develop a mental model using 8 systems thinking skills:.

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Stella systems thinking modelling

StellaSystems Thinking Modelling

Grace Skrzypiec


Modelling
Modelling

  • Models provide a “picture” or representation of “reality”


Modelling1
Modelling

“All Models are ‘wrong’, some models are useful”

…. W. Edwards Deming


Modelling2
Modelling

Develop a mental model using 8 systems thinking skills:

  • 10,000 metre view

  • System as cause

  • Dynamic thinking

  • Operational thinking

  • Closed-loop thinking

  • Non-linear thinking

  • Scientific thinking

  • Empathic thinking


Modelling

“Rules”

  • Unitconsistency

  • Conservation Law


Model Development

  • What Questions to ask:

  • How many juveniles pass through each point in the system?

  • Initiation: Start Offending

  • Persistence: Continued Offending

  • Desistance: Stop Offending

Follow sequence from Apprehensions to Secure Care

Collate data on rates of change

What If? Scenarios




A child is eligible to be apprehended by police for an offence committed at the age of 10

population

As long as they don’t offend they join the pool of non-offending juveniles

Non-

offenders

Becoming

juvenile

Part 1


Turning offence committed at the age of 10

18

population

Those who do not offend as juveniles leave the pool of non-offenders when they turn 18.

Non-

offenders

Becoming

juvenile

Part 1


Turning offence committed at the age of 10

18

population

Non-

offenders

Initiators

Committing

first offence

Becoming

juvenile

When a juvenile offends for the first time they join the pool of Initiators.

~Rate~

~Age~

First Apprehension rate

Part 1


Turning offence committed at the age of 10

18

population

Rate

Police juvenile apprehension rate

Non-

offenders

Initiators

Committing

first offence

Police

Becoming

juvenile

~Rate~

~Age~

First Apprehension rate

Part 1

Detected offending is influenced by the number of Police available and their juvenile apprehension rate


Part 2 offence committed at the age of 10

YC after SC

Secure

Care

Desist after YC

Persist after YC

Police Custody

YC after first offence

FC after first offence

Initiators

Committing

first offence

Div after first offence

Family

Conference

Diverted

offenders

Youth

Court

Desist after Div

Reoffending

Persist after Div

Desisters

Desist after FC

Recidivists

Persist after FC


Questions
Questions offence committed at the age of 10

  • What are the relationships between stocks?

  • What factors influence flow?

  • Model gender separately?

  • Model Indigenous status separately?


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