Situation and outlook for the 2013 14 florida citrus season december forecast
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Situation and Outlook for the 2013/14 Florida Citrus Season December forecast. FCM Board Meeting january 8, 2014. Florida orange crop, 2013-14 . December forecast. Factors of production Utilization and Juice Imports Juice supply, availability, movement and inventory

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Situation and outlook for the 2013 14 florida citrus season december forecast

Situation and Outlook for the 2013/14 Florida Citrus SeasonDecember forecast

FCM Board Meeting

january 8, 2014


Florida orange crop 2013 14 december forecast
Florida orange crop, 2013-14.December forecast

Factors of production

Utilization and Juice Imports

Juice supply, availability, movement and inventory

Retail sales and per capita consumption


Nursery propagations source fdacs budwood annual reports
Nursery Propagations Source: FDACS, Budwood Annual Reports.


Orange bearing tree inventory fdacs fass florida citrus statistics 2012 13
Orange Bearing Tree InventoryFDACS/FASS. Florida Citrus Statistics, 2012-13.


Factors of production source fdacs nass reports
Factors of production Source: FDACS/nass reports.


Florida orange crop utilization 1 000 000 boxes
Florida Orange Crop Utilization(1,000,000 boxes)

  • NFC needs are basically fixed for relevant crop sizes. The residual market is FCOJ.


Us orange juice imports october through september
US Orange Juice ImportsOctober through september

  • Brazilian prices need to have duties added, whereas ‘Others’ (Mexico and Costa Rica) do not.

  • FCOJ beginning inventory is priced ~$1.40/ssg!

Source: US Dept of Commerce.


Us orange juice imports october 2013
US Orange Juice ImportsOctober 2013

  • Concentrate prices are $.10 per gallon higher than where they closed in 2012/13.

  • Brazilian NFC prices are >$.20 per gallon higher.

Source: US Dept of Commerce.


Fl oj availability movement inventory current season forecast vs year ago
FL OJ Availability, Movement & InventoryCurrent Season Forecast vs year ago

After 12 wks

-55.6%

-33.5%

-12.5%

11.2%

-22.1%

-72.1%

-2.3%

-0.2%

Source: FDOC Processor Statistics Reports.


Us retail orange juice sales all categories fdm plus walmart
US Retail Orange Juice Sales – All Categories FDM plus Walmart

In 2003/04, Branded Recon comprised 17% of all retail sales, equivalent of 23mm boxes.

The pace for 2013/14 equates to 11%, or 7mm boxes.


Retail orange juice sales by category importance and std change
Retail Orange Juice SalesBy Category: Importance and STD % change

RTS prices are lower than previous year, yet volume continues to trend downward for both nfc and recon. NFC revenues are lower for the first time since 2009-10.

NFC comprises 59% of all retail volume and 68% of the revenue, where as. Recon RTS comprises 37% and 28%, respectively.

Source: FDOC, Nielsen Retail Sales, Monthly Top-line Report, period ending 12/21/13.



Florida grapefruit crop 2013 14 december forecast
Florida grapefruit crop, 2013-14.December Forecast

Factors of production

Utilization

Juice supply, availability, movement and inventory


Productivity Sub-Factors. Averages and deviations from the average.Source: FASS. Citrus Crop estimate Advisory Committee Report, September 19, 2013. USDA/NASS Citrus Crop Estimates.


Florida grapefruit crop utilization 1 000 000 boxes
Florida Grapefruit Crop Utilization average.(1,000,000 boxes)

  • NFC needs are basically fixed for relevant crop sizes. The residual market is FCGJ.


Fl gj availability movement inventory current season forecast versus year ago
FL GJ Availability, Movement & Inventory average.Current Season forecast versus year ago

After 12 wks

-38%

-14.9%

-13.5%

49%

-20.2%

7.1%

Source: FDOC Processor Statistics Reports. EMRA Forecasts for 2013-14, 12/2/13.


Thank you
Thank you! average.


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