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Jin Ho Yoo and Mara Y. Baviera APEC Climate Center

Moving from Climate Information to Climate Knowledge. Climate Change Knowledge Asset Session Pacific Neighborhood Consortium Annual meeting City University of Hong Kong, December 1 2010. A sia P acific Economic Cooperation C limate C enter. Jin Ho Yoo and Mara Y. Baviera

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Jin Ho Yoo and Mara Y. Baviera APEC Climate Center

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  1. Moving from Climate Information to Climate Knowledge Climate Change Knowledge Asset Session Pacific Neighborhood Consortium Annual meeting City University of Hong Kong, December 1 2010 Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center Jin Ho Yoo and Mara Y. Baviera APEC Climate Center

  2. Presentation Outline ■The Climate System, Climate Information and Climate Knowledge ■ Gaps and Challenges to Climate Knowledge Production ■ APEC Climate Center and its response

  3. Numerous information on Climate Change

  4. People say,

  5. Do what? : Decision making before action

  6. Basis of decision making

  7. Climate change information and its application Knowledge Information Data

  8. Climate Knowledge • Interpretation of information • Requires understanding and insight • Developed based on experiences and best practices • Produced with the intent of being useful

  9. A few examples INFORMATION KNOWLEDGE • Outlooks • Forecasts • Monitoring and prediction maps • Flood and drought bulletins • Technical reports • Wikis • Decision-support tools • Best practices • Early Warning and risk management system

  10. Presentation Outline ■ The Climate System, Climate Information and Climate Knowledge ■Gaps and Challenges to Climate Knowledge Production ■ APEC Climate Center and its response

  11. Climate change information and its application

  12. Uncertainty in Climate information Headlines following the 2013 publication of the AR5 Report may look like this: Trenberth (2010) warns that the improvements in models in IPCC AR5 may yield more uncertainty because of more factors and patterns of interactions considered.

  13. “Unknown unknowns” "Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns-- the ones we don't know we don't know."

  14. Climate and Climate Knowledge

  15. Uncertainty in Decision-making (Morgan et al 2009) • Climate system is a complex, interactive and dynamic system • Kinds of uncertainty • 1. Random and systematic errors in measurement • 2. Probability distributions from expert elicitation • 3. Ignorance – the “(monstrously large) blindspots” • Methods for estimating uncertainty • Model-generated uncertainty estimates • Expert elicitation • A few notes: • Decisions under uncertainty are made all the time by individuals, firms and businesses, governments, etc. • What is important is to accurately characterize and communicate uncertainty (i.e. avoiding use of subjective language such as likely, unlikely, etc.)

  16. Importance of Two-way Communication Channels • Current ways of communication between producers and users: • Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) • Boundary organizations (IRI, CSIRO, CIIFEN) • Lugon (2010) identifies examples and best practices • Some points: • Communication is still ad hoc • Regular, institutionalized interface with users is still not common in RCCs and NHMSs • GFCS to create a roadmap on how interface can be done

  17. Importance of Two-way Communication Channels Some important questions that need to be addressed: What are the information and knowledge needs of various sectors? At what temporal and spatial scales would information be useful? How available are climate forecasts in decision-making? What is actionable climate information? (build up knowledge) These questions will only be addressed with open communication and collaboration between producers and users. • Desired end-results: • Co-production of knowledge among producers and users • Feedback loops that inform producers on what kind of information is needed • Climate information products that are tailor-fit to various users.

  18. Technology and Knowledge Production • Uses of technology in knowledge production • Communication platform - Internet as a collaboration tool • Wikis and social networking websites allow for the updating of knowledge in real time and more and faster learning (i.e. weAdapt.org) • Online tools allow sharing of knowledge and ability to work together (i.e. Mendeley, Lotus Notes, Adobe Buzzword, etc.) dynamism, update our knowledge in real time, learn from others experiences • Email discussion lists and web forums allow for real-time interaction among scientists, adaptation specialists, development workers, etc.

  19. Technology and Knowledge Production • 2. Data access and services • Databases for storing vast amounts of data (PCMDI) • Google Earth layers • Software and decision-support tools • APCC’s CLIK, IRI’s CPT and others Climate science and adaptation require fast action. Hence knowledge exchange is crucial, particularly as the gaps in our knowledge are filled through experiences learned on the ground and not theory. Availability of technology should not undermine the value of interpersonal communication

  20. Presentation Outline ■ The Climate System, Climate Information and Climate Knowledge ■ Gaps and Challenges to Climate Knowledge Production ■APEC Climate Center and its response

  21. APEC Climate Center • Bring economies together to discuss ways and do things to enhance economic well being of member nations through better utilization of climate information

  22. Sharing of High-Cost Climate Information

  23. ··· MME Climate Forecast Joint Research Production, Analysis, & Dissemination International Collaboration Climate Monitoring Outreach & Training Program ··· APCC activities • Global climate forecast collected from 17 institutes • issue Monthly rolling 3-month MME climate forecast • Researches on intraseasonal to decadal prediction and • climate change projection • International Collaborations and Outreach activity

  24. Day of the month 1~10 11~15 16~21 22~23 Activity Data collection Standardization & quality check Analysis and production Outlook release & upload to website Monthly update of climate prediction www.apcc21.org

  25. APCC Activities • APCC’s modest efforts to respond to challenges and operate in the said context: • APEC Climate Symposium • 2010 Forum on Disaster Preparedness • 2011 theme on agriculture, water resource management and energy efficiency • CLIK (Climate Information Toolkit) • Currently most of the users are NHMSs • Find ways of how CLIK can be marketed to and used by adaptation sector and decision-makers • Virtual Center • - Publish contributed articles centering on how climate information and research can be used by different sectors (public health, marine resource conservation, urban planning, water resource management, energy efficiency, tourism, etc.)

  26. Capacity building: interactive service tools http://clik.apcc21.net • AFS : Automated Forecast System/ CMS : Climate Monitoring System/ DFT: Downscale Forecast Tool • ADSS : APEC Climate Center Data Service System

  27. APCC Activities • Survey on Using Climate Information for Disaster Preparedness • Conducted in 2010 together with the APEC Emergency Preparedness Working Group • Networking • Improved collaboration across institutions and APEC fora: Agricultural Technical Cooperation Working Group, Energy Working Group, Climate Change and Sustainable Development Working Group, Fisheries Working Group, Marine Resource Conservation Working Group

  28. APCC Activities • Planned activities and projects: • Collaboration with University of Aizu in developing tools and IT-based climate information and knowledge products • MOU signed last November 19, 2010 • commence projects in early 2011 • Commence research on climate change and application for 2011 • Active recruitment of scientists with specialization on climate change and climate information application • Increased funding for climate change research • more interdisciplinary studies with experts in socioeconomic sectors • Development of communications strategy • Examine accessibility of our products (language used in 3-month seasonal outlook, written descriptions for maps, explanations of variables, links to important resources) • Map out profile of current and prospective users

  29. Thank You.

  30. References and Resources Castree, Noel. 2010. Review of A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data and the Politics of Global Warming by Paul N. Edwards. American Scientist. The American Scientist. Available at http://www.americanscientist.org/bookshelf/pub/how-we-make-knowledge-about-climate-change (accessed November 3, 2010). Goddard, Lisa, Youcef Aitchellouche, Walter Baethgen, Michael Dettinger, Richard Graham, Peter Hayman, Mohammed Kadi, Rodney Martinez and Holger Meinke. 2009. Providing Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Information for Risk Management and Decision Making. White Paper for the Third World Climate Conference, Geneva. http://www.wmo.int/wcc3/sessionsdb/documents/WS3_WP_needs.doc (accessed November 3, 2010). Lugon, Ralph. Climate information for decision-making: lessons learned from effective user-provider communication schemes. 2010. Technical report for a one-year project of Graduate Institute Centre for International Governance. http://graduateinstitute.ch/webdav/site/cig/shared/CIG/climate/Report%20-%20Climate%20Information/Climate%20Information%20for%20Decision%20Making%20Report.pdf (accessed November 3,2010). Meinke, Holger, Rohan Nelson, Phil Kokic, Roger Stone, Ramasamy Selvaraju and Walter Baethgen. 2006. Actionable climate knowledge: from analysis to synthesis. Climate Research 33, no. 1: 101-110. Morgan, M. Granger, Hadi, Dowlatabadi, Max Henrion, David Keith, Robert Lempert, Sandra McBride, Mitchell Small and Thomas Willibanks. 2009. Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making. Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2. http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap5-2/sap5-2-final-report-all.pdf (accessed November 26, 2010). Shackley, Simon and Brian Wynne. 1995. Integrating knowledges for climate change: Pyramids, nets and uncertainties. Global Environmental Change 5, no. 2: 113-126. Trenberth, Kevin. 2010. More Knowledge, Less Certainty. Commentary in Nature Reports Climate Change 4. Published online. http://www.nature.com/climate/2010/1002/full/climate.2010.06.html Vogel, Coleen and Karen O’Brien. 2006. Who can eat information? Examining the effectiveness of seasonal climate forecasts and regional climate-risk management strategies. Climate Research 33, no. 1: 111-122.

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