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Novel Early flood Warning and Risk Assessment System – a next generation expert system software

中小尺度集合洪水预报系统. Novel Early flood Warning and Risk Assessment System – a next generation expert system software for flood warning and risk analysis. Outline. Introduction of NEWS in Chinese TIGGE Global weather forecast centres Flood forecasting procedure

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Novel Early flood Warning and Risk Assessment System – a next generation expert system software

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  1. 中小尺度集合洪水预报系统 Novel Early flood Warning and Risk Assessment System – a next generation expert system software for flood warning and risk analysis

  2. Outline • Introduction of NEWS in Chinese • TIGGE Global weather forecast centres • Flood forecasting procedure • Test application 1: Upper Severn catchment (with results of probabilistic forecasts) • Test application 2: Upper Huai catchment (ongoing) • NEWS potential market value and endusers • NEWS in the public domain (website) 2

  3. Summary NEWS中小尺度集合洪水预报系统 背景概述 集合预报系统从其实质上讲又可称之为概率预报系统,其最终目的是提供大气变量的完全概率预报。近几年集合预报技术经历了不断的发展完善,从以前仅考虑初值的不确定性发展为同时考虑模式的不确定性,进而发展到多模式和多分析集合预报技术。TIGGE集合预报是世界气象组织的“观测系统研究和预报实验”项目的重要组成部分,在全球范围组织各气象业务中心的集合预报开发与合作,并计划发展成为未来的“全球交互式预报系统”。该技术在世界范围被认同,并逐渐成为天气预报的主流发展趋势。越来越多的国家投入准业务运行和业务运行,有代表意义的是欧盟联合研究中心(EU JRC)正在欧洲范围内大力推广应用的EFAS ‘欧盟洪水预警系统’。EFAS正是建立在这样一个集合预报系统基础上结合其现有的分布式水文模型开展其准业务运行,为欧盟各国提供3-10天内的中尺度洪水预报。   在EFAS技术雏形的基础之上,NEWS‘中小尺度集合洪水预报系统’对其功能进行扩充和完善:(1) 引入尺度转化方法,提高精度,加强了该项技术用于到小尺度流域的可行性;(2) 完整的气象,水文和水力模型耦合,一套系统可以连续运行提供流域范围内降雨量,洪水过程线和洪水淹没区域及水深预报;(3) 对统计预报的后续处理和预报矫正;(4) 预报洪水统计风险区域图(flood risk map)。NEWS 已经在英国中部塞文河 (Severn river) 流域上游子流域 (面积大约4062Km2)进行了试验洪水预报(水文预报为1公里网格精度,水力预报为50米网格精度)。与传统预报技术相比,其预报准确性和命中率显著提高,虚警率降低。从时间上讲,洪水过程预报可以提前至3到10天,从而为疏散居民和转移物资提供了宝贵的时间。 NEWS中小尺度集合洪水预报系统现由河海大学和伦敦国王学院在淮河上游共同试验开发,英国合乐集团独家受聘进行市场调研以及应用技术推广。NEWS项目同时得到了安徽省水文局和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF) 的大力支持。ECMWF的Florian Pappenberger博士同时参与该项目,为NEWS的气象数据采集和处理提供技术支持。   尽管集合概率预报结果与传统方法比较有显著提高,但其发布还需要做大量的普及推广和培训工作。目前伦敦国王学院在塞文河流域的试点项目是世界范围内第一次将TIGGE多模式集合气象预报与分布式水文水力模型耦合应用,其推广前景还需要在不同流域范围内,不同气候条件的区域进行试验,以便确定其应用技术的普遍性。中国在面向TIGGE的集合预报关键应用技术已经做了大量工作,为水文水力领域中应用该技术做好了准备工作。这可以促使NEWS产品在实际洪水预报中尽早发挥作用。 3

  4. Global weather forecast centres 全球集合气象预报中心 左图: 气象预报中心开始输出集合气象预报 并加入TIGGE数据库的时间 n 代表所有可能的集合气象预报组合(供用户单位在试验阶段针对不同流域筛选最可行的气象预报中心) 4

  5. Flood forecasting procedure in testing mode Numerical Weather Forecast (NWP) models 气象预报数学模型 Hydrological/Hydraulics model calibration 水文和水力模型率定 Initial status, forecast starting time 水文模型用观测气象值模拟初始状态 Ensemble forecasts (replace conventional deterministic single forecast) 集成预报替代单一预报 Model simulation using calibrated parameter set 水文模型用预报气象值 模拟未来10天内河道流量 Downscale forecasts to the catchment model spatial unit 中尺度集成预报重新构造成小尺度(100公里1公里或更小尺度) For testing/quality control purpose, not applicable for operational purposes 上图: 集合预报过程示意(试验阶段) 5

  6. Severn Basin - DEM 6

  7. Severn Basin – meteo domain 7

  8. Severn Basin – ensemble event hydrograph Jan 2008 8

  9. Severn Basin – ensemble area of inundation 9

  10. Severn Basin – probabilistic inundation estimate 2008年1月塞文河上游子流域 洪水淹没区域概率预报 由于此次洪水强度不高, 洪泛区域较小 100% inundated  not inundated 完全淹没 安全区域 10

  11. Severn Basin – a flood case study Percentage of ensemble Q above flooding threshold at Montford Jan 2008 11

  12. NEWS project selected area Upper Huai Catchment (30672 km2) Upstream of Wangjia Ba reservoir (王家坝水库上游) Huai River Basin (淮河流域) 12

  13. Huai Basin 13

  14. Huai Basin 14

  15. Huai Basin 15

  16. NEWS market value Market value in both business and public sectors • Insurance companies: to derive flood risk maps to estimate loss values and calculate premium to be allocated to specific regions; • Engineering consulting firms: to provide sound climate-proof design for flood defenses and other hydraulic structures. The system can also be used to provide strategic advice on flood insurance including institutional and cost-recovery mechanisms to assist in the development of resilience to climate change through mitigation; • Research institutions: use tailor made modules from the NEWS system for simulation exercises for research and development purposes; • Educational institutions: teaching purposes especially targeted at local government authorities and graduate students at advanced learning institutions including universities; • Public authorities: to perform flood risk analysis to inform planning and new investment in real estate especially in low lying areas. The forecasting component can be used to issue flood warning, improve public awareness of flood risk and assist regional level policy formulation and decision making. 16

  17. NEWS in the public domain - website 17

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