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Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)

Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480). Kevin Reed 2133 Space Research Building (North Campus) kareed@umich.edu http://www-personal.umich.edu/~kareed/ Winter 2012 February 21, 2012. Class News. Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12 2008 and 2010 Class On Line:

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Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)

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  1. Climate Change: The Move to Action(AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Kevin Reed 2133 Space Research Building (North Campus) kareed@umich.edu http://www-personal.umich.edu/~kareed/ Winter 2012 February 21, 2012

  2. Class News • Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12 • 2008 and 2010 ClassOn Line: • http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action

  3. Today • What Are Extreme Events? • Are They Changing? • Will Extremes Differ With ‘Climate Change’? • Communication

  4. Extreme Weather Events

  5. What is an Extreme? • Categorizing an event as “extreme” is a somewhat arbitrary procedure. • What is extreme at one space and time may be typical at another. • Extremes are at the tails of the distribution. How is “tail” defined? • Does extreme mean “rare” or simply high impact? • Generalized Extreme Value Theory US CCSP Report 3.3 - 2008

  6. What is an Extreme? • Extremes are a natural component of a stable climate. • However, there are costs! US CCSP Report 3.3 - 2008

  7. Trends Temperature Precipitation NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate

  8. Trends – Tornadoes? NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate

  9. Trends – Snow? NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate

  10. Trends – Tropical Cyclones? NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate

  11. Trends – Tropical Cyclones? NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate

  12. Trends - Issues • Data reliability • Technology, Coverage • Natural Variability • Regional Distributions • Is there an anthropogenic signature?

  13. Trends • 2011 was a record-breaking year for Climate Extremes

  14. 2011 Extremes • 14 Events of >$1 Billion in Damage • Effective Communication? NOAA News

  15. 2011 Extremes NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate

  16. 2011 Extremes - Ranks NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate

  17. U.S. Climate Extreme Index CEI NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate

  18. Communication • This is one agency’s (NOAA) at communicating extreme events and trends to the public? • Is one of the figures particularly effective? • As a whole? • Other sources: • NOAA – Extreme Weather 2011 • Natural Resources Defense Council • Wunderground – Expert Blogs

  19. How Might Extremes Change? US CCSP Report 3.3 - 2008

  20. How Might Extremes Change? • Changes may be more complex! IPCC SREX

  21. Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate US CCSP Report 3.3 - 2008

  22. Projected Precipitation Changes US CCSP Report 3.3 - 2008

  23. Possible Changes in Hurricanes Can be basin specific! Emanuel (2007) Holland and Webster (2007)

  24. Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate • In general, similar to IPCC AR4 and IPCC SREX results. • Specific to North America. US CCSP Report 3.3 - 2008

  25. Importance? • For U.S. • Cost are increasing for many reasons: • Population growth • Where people live • Changes in extremes (as shown) • Vulnerability (building codes) US CCSP Report 3.3 - 2008

  26. IPCC Special Report on Extremes

  27. Are These Reports Effective? • There are differences in the presentation of information. • Is one more effective than another? • What are the strengths? • Room for improvement? • How is it different when compared to IPCC AR4?

  28. Example: Hurricanes • Strong storms, but less globally. Fractional Change Zhao et al. (2009)

  29. Example: Hurricanes • This is important because: Meyer et al. (1997)

  30. Example: Hurricanes • Also… adaptation… US CCSP Report 3.3 - 2008

  31. Example: Heat Waves • Barriopedro et al., Russian Heat Wave, Science, 2011 • Dole et al., Russian Heat Wave, GRL, 2011 • Rahmstorf, Increase of Extreme Events, PNAS, 2011 • Shearer and Rood, Earthzine, 2011

  32. Example: Heat Waves • 2010 Russian Heat Wave They see no signal of the role anthropogenic sources Dole et al. 2011

  33. Example: Heat Waves • Potential for Future Russian Heat Waves Scientific Debates Dole et al. 2011

  34. Example: Heat Waves • European Heat Waves (1500-2100) 2 500-year events in last decade! Barriopedro et al. 2011

  35. Example: Heat Waves

  36. More Communication • These case studies demonstrate that there is an attempt to ‘simplify’, or communicate the science to the public, in the reports that we have read in class. • NCAR – AtmosNews • http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/attribution/steroids-baseball-climate-change • Deliberate attempt to increase communication with public.

  37. “It’s not the right question to ask if this storm or that storm is due to global warming, or is it natural variability. Nowadays, there’s always an element of both.” Kevin Trenberth – NCAR

  38. Shearer and Rood (2011) • Scientist are part of the conversation… should help frame better questions. • Two different realities, natural and the anthropogenically changed… this does not exist. • “The result is that scientific debates that were historically carried out in the slow deliberations of peer-reviewed journals are now on public display and can be misrepresented.”

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