Chapter 11 Classical vs. Keynesian. CLASSICAL BELIEVES: Markets will behave according to S&D. In other words. S&D will respond accordingly to “Inflationary Gap, Recessionary Gap, and long run stability when all curves intersect. Basic Macroeconomic Relationships. Say’s Law
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CLASSICAL BELIEVES:Markets will behave according to S&D.
In other words. S&D will respond accordingly to “Inflationary Gap, Recessionary Gap, and long run stability when all curves intersect.
Basic Macroeconomic Relationships
How Classical Works (or not)
Interest Rate and Investment
Income and Consumption (or savings)
Changes in spending and changes in output
Economists agree Says law works in Barter economy and disagree about if it works in a money economy.
Supply creates its own demand… baker bakes enough bread to trade for what he wants.
Classical economics believes it works in money economy and here is why.
Classical economists—Adam Smith, J.B. Say, David Ricardo, John Stuart Mill, Thomas Malthus, A.C. Pigou, and others—wrote from the 1770s to the 1930s.
They assumed wages and prices were flexible, and that competitive markets existed throughout the economy.
Assumptions of the classical model
Pure competition exists.
Wages and prices are flexible.
People are motivated by self-interest.
People cannot be fooled by money illusion.
Consequences of The Assumptions
If the role of government in the economy is minimal,
If pure competition prevails, and all prices and wages are flexible,
If people are self-interested, and do not experience money illusion,
Then problems in the macroeconomy will be temporary and the market will correct itself.
Classical economists believed that prices, wages and interest rates are flexible.
Say’s law says when economy produces a certain level of real GDP, it also generates the income needed to purchase that level of real GDP.) hence, always capable of achieving the natural level of GDP.
Fallacy here: no guarantee that the income received will be used to purchase g & s.----some will be saved.
But theory would be redeemed, if the savings goes into equal needed amounts of investment.
What is Natural Real GDP?
Real GDP that is produced at the natural unemployment rate. (which we agree around 5%)
In recession- unemployment rate higher than natural rate.
Surplus exists in labor market
Drives down wage rate++++++++++++++
4) In inflationary gap, unemployment lower than natural rate
5) Shortage exists in labor market
6) Drives up the wage rate
Lower wage rate –firms hire more workers
SRAS shifts to right until recessionary gap is gone.
BOTH THEORIES CLASSICAL AND KEYNESIAN DO AGREE……
TWO THINGS WE CAN DO WITH DISPOSABLE INCOME-
SPEND OR SAVE!
We all know that consumption is 2/3 (or more) of GDP
***Classical theorists say, the funds from aggregate savings eventually borrowed and turned into investment expenditures which are a component of real GDP
BUT…. What if no or low savings?
Theory breaks down here – have to have equal amounts of investment for savings.
(the idea here is that savings leads to investment) This is true… but it probably won’t do it by itself. Needs assistance through monetary or perhaps fiscal policy.
The condition where the Real GDP the economy is producing is equal to the Natural Real GDP and the unemployment rate is equal to the natural unemployment rate.
The condition where the Real GDP the economy is producing is less than the
Natural Real GDP and the unemployment rate is greater than the natural unemployment rate.
The condition where the Real GDP the economy is producing is greater than the Natural Real GDP and the unemployment rate is less than the natural unemployment rate.
The economy is at P1 and Real GDP of $11 trillion.
Because Real GDP is greater than Natural Real GDP ($10 trillion), the economy is in an inflationary gap and the unemployment rate is lower than the natural unemployment rate.
Wage rates rise, and the short-run aggregate supply curve shifts from SRAS1 to SRAS2.
As the price level rises, the real balance, interest rate, and international trade effects decrease the quantity demanded of Real GDP.
Ultimately, the economy moves into long-run equilibrium at point 2.
Classical, new classical, and monetarist economists believe that the economy is self-regulating. For these economists, full employment is the norm: The economy always moves back to Natural Real GDP.
A public policy of not interfering
with market activities in the economy.
Slump in output yields….
Lower prices This increases consumer spending.
Lower wages - eventually will occur… with lower prices
Lower interest rate Increases investment spending…. Increases employment
Excesses of supply of goods and workers would be eliminated and return to a balanced full-employment status.
*Production of output automatically provides the income needed to buy the output.
This theory was prevalent until Depression of 30’s hit.
No money for purchases
not possible to overproduce goods because the production of those goods would always generate a demand that was sufficient to purchase the goods.
(what would they say about the recent inventories of our auto industry?)
The classical approach fell into disrepute during the economic decline of the 30’s. Real GDP fell by more than 30% 1930-33
In 1939- per capital income was still 10% less than in 1929.
*U.S. began to embrace John Maynard Keynes’s theory of stimulating the economy through aggregate demand (Lord Keynes) had studied classical economics and wrote his famous General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. (which was a complete rebuttal of the classical theory)
According to Keynes, a decrease in consumption and subsequent increase in saving may not be matched by an equal increase in investment. Thus, a decrease in total expenditures may occur.
To learn more about John Maynard Keynes, click his photo above.
Classical Economics: In a recession,
Wages will fall (more will be hired)
Prices will fall (more will be bought)
The economy self-regulates, and
Moves back to full-employment GDP
Keynes’ criticism: In a recession,
Wages would not fall.
Prices would not fall.
Self-regulation could not occur.
The economy could get “stuck” with high unemployment.
Real GDP and the price level, 1934–1940
Keynes argued that in a depressed economy, increased aggregate spending can increase output without raising prices.
Data showing the U.S. recovery from the Great Depression seem to bear this out.
In such circumstances, real GDP is demand driven.
Keynesian Economics was the answer to Classical economic theories and the suggested way to “jump-start” the economy again… pull out of the depression.
Idea: Government enters the economy.
Stimulates the economy through Aggregate Demand.
Fiscal policy would move the production engine by stimulating “spending.”
increased employment, jobs would be filled, production would begin
people would purchase with money they earned from jobs.
Suppose the economy is in a recessionary gap at point 1.
Wage rates are $10 per hour, and the price level is P1.
The issue may not be whether wage rates and the price level fall, but how long they take to reach long-run levels
The speed at which wage rate falls is a key
To whether Keynesian or Classical theory
Is more valid. Answers never for sure.
Keynes rejected the classical notion of self-adjustment, (????) and he predicted things would get worse once a spending shortfall emerged.
Business expectations of future sales worsens.
Business investment is cut back.
Unsold capital goods begins to pile up (includes office equip. machinery, airplanes, etc.)
*this is an “undesired” change…
Worsened sales expectations causes decline in investment spending that shifts the AD curve to the left leading to pileups of unwanted inventory.
New Keynesians contend that the SRAS is essentially flat.
Based on research, they contend SRAS is horizontal because firms adjust their prices about once a year.
If the SRAS schedule were really horizontal, how could the price level ever increase?
AD 3 *Price
Real GDP Output
AD unstable, prices and wages are inflexible AD no effect on prices until LRAS
Aggregate Demand Shock
Any event that causes the aggregate demand curve to shift inward or outward
Aggregate Supply Shock
Any event that causes the aggregate supply curve to shift inward or outward