1 / 11

Scenarios, Decision Support and Communications

Scenarios, Decision Support and Communications. Greg Kiker Agricultural and Biological Engineering Dept. P.O. Box 110570 Gainesville, FL 32611-0570 Phone: (352) 392-1864 ext 291 Email: gkiker@ufl.edu. GECAFS Caribbean Meeting, 02 Sept 05. Overview of the talk.

clare-gilliam
Download Presentation

Scenarios, Decision Support and Communications

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Scenarios, Decision Support and Communications Greg Kiker Agricultural and Biological Engineering Dept.P.O. Box 110570Gainesville, FL 32611-0570Phone: (352) 392-1864 ext 291Email: gkiker@ufl.edu GECAFS Caribbean Meeting, 02 Sept 05

  2. Overview of the talk • GECAFS: An Integrated View of Food Systems • Decision Support Systems • Scenarios/DSS/Communication with GECAFS

  3. Source: Paul Raskin

  4. Decision Support

  5. Traditional Decision Support Systems • Many definitions, many visions, many versions… • DSS Integrate Tools and Methodologies • Method Descriptions and Tools • Information Storage and Databases • Models • Visualization (examples: GIS, graphics, charts…) • Decision analysis (examples: Adaptive management, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Trade-off analysis, Linear Programming)

  6. User-Defined “Slow and Fast” Time Steps Management Options Example Supporting Tool: QnD System Reset Button “Warning Lights” Tabbed panes with several time series charts Mouse-driven Chart and Text Display Spatial Maps of Ecosystem Indicators

  7. Challenges in Building DSS • DSS almost always focus on one sector’s (or discipline’s) tools and concepts • Model integration is difficult and technically challenging • Not helpful in unearthing assumptions • Transparency versus Ease of Use • Integration with scenario planning and communication - “More gaps than links” (Brklacich, (happy hour) 2005)

  8. Questions to Ask • Who will use this DSS? • The decision-maker? • Their assistants? • Consultants/University/Government types? • Teachers? NGO’s? Citizens? School Kids? • How do they currently make decisions? • What new techniques are they willing to explore? • What are their information, support and communication needs?

  9. Genesis Session Prototype QnD Game View and Simulation Engine • Talk about the system, goals, desires • Explore current management options • Gather initial maps/data • Brainstorm about desired management options, relevant information and socio-economic realities • Rough estimate of components, processes and data • Simple information • Deployed in limited circulation for calibration/reality checks Iterative Sessions 1…n Deployed QnD Model • Refine goals, objectives • Explore current and possible management options • Calibrate/Validate engine performance • Revise Game View for relevant management information • Make changes concerning management options, relevant information and socio-economic factors • Player/Developer reviewed components, processes and data • More relevant information • Brainstorm about desired management options, relevant information and socio-economic realities DSS Development Methodology: QnD as an example

  10. Scenario Integration with Models: QnD as an example • Socio-Economic Drivers • CARSEA Scenarios • Neo-Plantation Economy • Quantity Over Quality • Growing Asymmetries • Diversify Together • Tourist visits, foreign investment, external prices, etc. • QnD:Jamaica Version 0.0 • Stochastic relationships • Time series values • Incremental change • Climatic Drivers • QnD Scenarios • Neo-Plantation with mild Climate Change • Neo-Plantation with intense Climate Change • Etc… • Climate Scenarios • Precipitation • Hurricane Intensity/ Frequency • Sea Level Rise

  11. Questions for You • Who will use this GECAFS DSS? • How do you or your constituents currently make decisions? • What new techniques are you willing to explore? • What are your information, support and communication needs? • Training/Workshops? Reports? Web Tools? • What does transparency in decisions mean to you? • What does it look like? • What level of transparency is appropriate? And remember…you can always change your mind…

More Related