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Scenarios, Decision Support and Communications. Greg Kiker Agricultural and Biological Engineering Dept. P.O. Box 110570 Gainesville, FL 32611-0570 Phone: (352) 392-1864 ext 291 Email: [email protected] GECAFS Caribbean Meeting, 02 Sept 05. Overview of the talk.

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Scenarios decision support and communications

Scenarios, Decision Support and Communications

Greg Kiker

Agricultural and Biological Engineering Dept.P.O. Box 110570Gainesville, FL 32611-0570Phone: (352) 392-1864 ext 291Email: [email protected]

GECAFS Caribbean Meeting, 02 Sept 05


Overview of the talk
Overview of the talk

  • GECAFS: An Integrated View of Food Systems

  • Decision Support Systems

  • Scenarios/DSS/Communication with GECAFS




Traditional decision support systems
Traditional Decision Support Systems

  • Many definitions, many visions, many versions…

  • DSS Integrate Tools and Methodologies

    • Method Descriptions and Tools

    • Information Storage and Databases

    • Models

    • Visualization (examples: GIS, graphics, charts…)

    • Decision analysis (examples: Adaptive management, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Trade-off analysis, Linear Programming)


Example supporting tool qnd system

User-Defined

“Slow and Fast”

Time Steps

Management Options

Example Supporting Tool: QnD System

Reset Button

“Warning Lights”

Tabbed panes with several time series charts

Mouse-driven Chart and Text Display

Spatial Maps of Ecosystem Indicators


Challenges in building dss
Challenges in Building DSS

  • DSS almost always focus on one sector’s (or discipline’s) tools and concepts

  • Model integration is difficult and technically challenging

  • Not helpful in unearthing assumptions

  • Transparency versus Ease of Use

  • Integration with scenario planning and communication - “More gaps than links” (Brklacich, (happy hour) 2005)


Questions to ask
Questions to Ask

  • Who will use this DSS?

    • The decision-maker?

    • Their assistants?

    • Consultants/University/Government types?

    • Teachers? NGO’s? Citizens? School Kids?

  • How do they currently make decisions?

  • What new techniques are they willing to explore?

  • What are their information, support and communication needs?


Dss development methodology qnd as an example

Genesis Session

Prototype QnD Game View and Simulation Engine

  • Talk about the system, goals, desires

  • Explore current management options

  • Gather initial maps/data

  • Brainstorm about desired management options, relevant information and socio-economic realities

  • Rough estimate of components, processes and data

  • Simple information

  • Deployed in limited circulation for calibration/reality checks

Iterative Sessions 1…n

Deployed QnD Model

  • Refine goals, objectives

  • Explore current and possible management options

  • Calibrate/Validate engine performance

  • Revise Game View for relevant management information

  • Make changes concerning management options, relevant information and socio-economic factors

  • Player/Developer reviewed components, processes and data

  • More relevant information

  • Brainstorm about desired management options, relevant information and socio-economic realities

DSS Development Methodology: QnD as an example


Scenario integration with models qnd as an example
Scenario Integration with Models: QnD as an example

  • Socio-Economic Drivers

  • CARSEA Scenarios

  • Neo-Plantation Economy

  • Quantity Over Quality

  • Growing Asymmetries

  • Diversify Together

  • Tourist visits, foreign investment, external prices, etc.

  • QnD:Jamaica Version 0.0

  • Stochastic relationships

  • Time series values

  • Incremental change

  • Climatic Drivers

  • QnD Scenarios

  • Neo-Plantation with mild Climate Change

  • Neo-Plantation with intense Climate Change

  • Etc…

  • Climate Scenarios

  • Precipitation

  • Hurricane Intensity/ Frequency

  • Sea Level Rise


Questions for you
Questions for You

  • Who will use this GECAFS DSS?

  • How do you or your constituents currently make decisions?

  • What new techniques are you willing to explore?

  • What are your information, support and communication needs?

    • Training/Workshops? Reports? Web Tools?

  • What does transparency in decisions mean to you?

    • What does it look like?

    • What level of transparency is appropriate?

      And remember…you can always change your mind…


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