1 / 9

Relationship between severity of a hazard, its probability and degree of risk

For one case study hazard analyse the relationship between severity, probability, and risk Find evidence to support this. Relationship between severity of a hazard, its probability and degree of risk. Prediction. All models built on a number of assumptions for variables:

claire
Download Presentation

Relationship between severity of a hazard, its probability and degree of risk

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. For one case study hazard analyse the relationship between severity, probability, and risk Find evidence to support this Relationship between severity of a hazard, its probability and degree of risk

  2. Prediction • All models built on a number of assumptions for variables: What would they be for earthquake? • Tohoku – prediction of 99% probability that earthquake 7.5 would occur in next 75 yrs • Defences built around this • Models of plate tectonics assumed that there would not be simultaneous slips in faults • Several incorrect assumptions based on historical observations

  3. Why do hazard maps matter? • Deciding how much of a country’s resources should be spent on mitigation • Building tsunami defences large enough to withstand the 2011 event is too expensive • Those built were able to withstand tsunamis experienced every 200-300 yrs

  4. Cost vs mitigation Total cost of event / losses / defences Extent to which losses can be minimised (mitigation) A hazard model is crucial because it is used to predict the probabilities of tsunamis of different heights and hence the expected loss

  5. Unzipping theory • http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20120920-will-we-ever-predict-earthquakes

  6. How can EQ’s be predicted? Write notes on 2 methods used… • http://science.howstuffworks.com/nature/natural-disasters/earthquake7.htm • http://www.livescience.com/6935-method-promises-earthquake-prediction.html

  7. For your MEDC and LEDC EQ Case Studies… • Had the earthquake been predicted? • What degree of prediction had been given? • What actions [if any] had been taken due to the predictions?

  8. Hurricanes What are the methods used to predict hurricanes? (time, magnitude and location) How is this communicated to the public? What factors will affect predictions of the potential impacts? What are the limitations to these methods? HURRICANES / TYPHOONShttp://www.hko.gov.hk/informtc/tcService.htmhttp://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/http://www.nbcnews.com/id/9369041/ns/us_news-katrina_the_long_road_back/t/katrina-forecasters-were-remarkably-accurate/#.UaaYc0A0WuIhttp://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/05/130524144951.htm#.UaVs0TfKMmg.twitterhttp://www.katrina.noaa.gov/forecast/forecast.htmlhttp://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

More Related