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Real-time Forecast Service for Geomagnetically Induced Current

This pilot project aims to provide a real-time forecast service for predicting and mitigating the damages caused by geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in the Swedish power grid. The project involves performing post-analysis to determine the space weather causes of GIC and coordinating with the Space Weather European Network (SWENET).

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Real-time Forecast Service for Geomagnetically Induced Current

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  1. ESA Pilot Project: Real-time forecast service for geomagnetically induced current • SDA objectives • Real-time forecasting of GIC in the Swedish power grid • Perform post-analysis to determine space weather causes of GIC • Coordination with the Space Weather European Network (SWENET) H. Lundstedt1, P. Wintoft1, M. Wik1, L. Eliasson1, Risto Pirjola2,3, A. Viljanen2, A. Pulkkinen2,4 H. Swahn5, and Å. Sjödin6 1) Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Sweden 2) Finnish Meteorological Institute, Space Research Unit, Helsinki, Finland, 4) Geomagnetic Laboratory, Natural Resources, Canada, Ottawa, Canada 5) NASA, GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, USA, 5) OKG AB, A Company in the E.ON Group, Sweden, 6) ELFORSK, Sweden

  2. User needs Forecast system in order to limit damage caused by GIC

  3. User satisfaction - financial benefits The aim of the cost-benefit analysis is to determine the benefit of carrying-out various measures in order to limit damage caused by GIC. The study of the probability of different events (GIC disturbances) and the consequences of these events formed the basis for the economical analysis. The cost of damage today is compared to the cost of damage-limiting measures. The assumed method to prevent A and B is an early warning system (forecasts). The assumed method to prevent C and D is a monitoring system. Cost-benefit analysis of measures against power grid disturbances caused by solar storms, Elforsk report 03:36, June 2003, Stefan Skarp Solstormar, Transienta geomagnetiska störningar, Elforsk report 03:33, January 2004

  4. Sustainability of service - Business plan • Access to real-time data from solar wind monitor (ACE) (absolute crucial !!!) • Internet connection • Access to a magnetometer for verification of forecasts and monitoring (Currently kindly provided by DMI/Brorfelde) • Initial cost for forecast system (2 MSEK ≈ € 210 000) (A,B) • Maintenance (0.6MSEK/year ≈ € 63 000) (A,B) • Costs for cases C,D:initial cost (350 000SEK ≈ €36 840), • Maintenance (10 000 ≈ €1050)

  5. Prospective for improvement of the service • The service will be useful for the south of Sweden. • Warnings 15-39 hours ahead based on solar input and even warning days ahead of activity based on far-side observations are of great interest. • The Halloween events taught us the importance of these warnings, for carrying out preventive measures. • However these warnings are today not accurate enough to decide whether or not to import and export power. S. Lindahl, Effects of Geomagnetically induced currents on protection systems, Elforsk report 03:34.December 2003. H. Lundstedt, The Sun, Space Weather, and GIC Effects in Sweden, in press, Adv. in Space Res. 2005.

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