CRTI Annual Project Review CRTI Project 02-0093 RD Thursday, 8 June 2006. AGENDA. IntroductionProject Champion Dr Michel B éland Project Project Review Committee CRTI secretariat Mr Ted Sykes Project ReviewProject Manager, Richard Hogue Project Recommendations
CRTI Annual Project Review CRTI Project 02-0093 RDThursday, 8 June 2006
Project Champion:Dr Michel Béland
Project Manager:Mr Richard Hogue
AECL Management Representative:Dr Ken Dortmuth
Health Canada Management Representative: Dr Jack Cornett
Environment Canada Management Representatives: Mr Michel Jean, Dr Keith Puckett, Dr Gilbert Brunet
Defence Research and Development Canada (Suffield) Dr Kent Harding
Portfolio Manager:Mr Ted Sykes
Deputy Project Manager: Mr Réal D’Amours
Recording Secretary: Mr Richard Hogue
PROJECT REVIEW COMMITTEE DECISIONS
The objective of this project is to develop and validate an integrated, state-of-the-art, high-fidelity multi-scale modeling system for the accurate and efficient prediction of urban flow and dispersion of CBRN materials.
Prototype to be ready in early 2007
Development of this proposed multi-scale modeling system will provide the capability to perform real-time modeling and simulation tool to predict injuries, casualties, and contamination and to make relevant decisions (based on the strongest technical and scientific foundations) to minimize the consequences based on a pre-determined decision making framework.
Component 1: development of a “building aware” model for urban flow prediction (UrbanSTREAM)
Component 2: inclusion of subgrid-scale urban parameterization in meso-scale NWP model (GEM-LAM)
Component 3: coupling of microscale flow model with “urbanized” GEM-LAM.
Component 4: development of a lagrangian stochastic model for prediction of urban dispersion (UrbanLS).
Component 5: validation of fully coupled multi-scale modeling system for urban flow using field study verification data.
Component 6 (new): in the context of PSTP, collaboration work with US NARAC center (LLNL) and development of methodologies for determination of emission source distribution (source reconstruction).
Multi-scale CBRN Hazard Prediction Model for the Urban Environment
Plume Dispersion Models
Fluid Dynamics Models
Relationship between components
(whole system validation)
Adaptive sampling strategy
Bayesian inference for inverse source determination
Component 6 (new)
PSTP supplementary funding
3-D rendering from ARCVIEW shape file
Portion of OK City
Wind from SSW, Source #1
ANL Minisodar (Botanical Gardens)
PNNL Sodar used to inflow conditions for urbanSTREAM
Source Location: South side of Park Avenue
35.46871667 ° N, 97.51556667 ° W
PROJECT STATUS AND ACCOMPLISHMENTS since November 2004 (last PRC) (cont’d)
TEB in GEM-LAM: ready
Satellite derived methodology to produce land-use classification: ready
Cascade strategy and tests (2.5km to 1km to 250m) :work underway
Anthropogenetic heat flux: work underway
3D turbulence kinetic energy: in MC-2 but work underway to include in GEM
Validation with Oklahoma City database: work underway
MUSE-1 (March-April 2005) and MUSE-2 (Febuary-March 2006) field studies :
completed with great success. Data analysis work underway.
Very low buildings
Roads and parkings
Mix of nature and built
Oklahoma City 60-m resolution classification
Anthropogenic heat database
Application to Oklahoma City
Joint Urban 2003 Experiments
IC + LBC
IC + LBC
TEB is used in 2.5 km,
1 km, and 250-m models
IC + LBC
IOP6 (Daytime): Urban Heat Island
PWIDS stations used for model verification
TEB does not make much differences over rural areas (expected!)
City Center Stations
Heat Island Index
Significant improvement in the city (cooler in the day, warmer in the night)
20 m tower
Radiative surface temperatures
IR camera in heated case
Incoming and outgoing radiation
CNR1 radiometer Kipp & Zonen
Turbulent fluxes by eddy covariance 10Hz
3D sonic anemometer CSAT3
H2O/CO2 analyzer Li-Cor 7500
Fine wire thermocouple ASPTC
Air temperature and humidity in canyons
Radiative temperature of walls
Energy Budget Analysis
Residue = Storage + snow melt – Anthropogenic heat fluxes
PROJECT STATUS AND ACCOMPLISHMENTS since November 2004 (last PRC) (cont’d)
Components 3: coupling work … underway
Component 5: validation work…. underway
Project related publications and presentations on CFD
and dispersion modeling:
Refereed Journal Papers (published or accepted):
H. Ji, F.S. Lien and E. Yee, “An Efficient Second-Order Accurate Cut-Cell Method for Solving the Variable Coefficient Poisson Equation with Jump Conditions on Irregular Domain”, International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids (in press, January, 2006).
Refereed Journal Papers (submitted):
K.J. Hsieh, F.S. Lien and E. Yee, “Numerical Modeling of Scalar Dispersion in an Urban Canopy”, submitted to Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics in May, 2005.
F.S. Lien, E. Yee, H. Ji, A. Keats and K.J. Hsieh, “Progress and Challenges in the Development of Physically-Based Numerical Models for Prediction of Flow and Contaminant Dispersion in the Urban Environment”, submitted to International Journal of Computational Fluid Dynamics (Special Issue) in October 2005.
A. Keats, E. Yee and F.S. Lien, “Bayesian Inference for Source Determination With Applications to a Complex Urban Environment”, submitted to Atmospheric Environment in May, 2006.
F.S. Lien, E. Yee and H. Ji (2005), “Modelling Wind Flow and Turbulence in Complex Urban Canopies”, 9th Annual George Mason University Conference on Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modelling, July 18-20, George Mason University, Fairfax, VG, USA.
K.J. Hsieh, A. Keats, F.S. Lien, E. Yee (2005), “Scalar Dispersion and Inferred Source Location in an Urban Canopy”, 9th Annual George Mason University Conference on Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modelling, July 18-20, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, USA.
F.S. Lien, E. Yee, H. Ji, A. Keats and K.J. Hsieh (2005), “Development of a High-Fidelity Numerical Model for Hazard Prediction in the Urban Environment” (Keynote Address), Proc. 13th Annual Conference of the CFD Society of Canada, July 31-August 3, 2005, St. John’s, Canada.
H. Ji, F.S. Lien and E. Yee (2006), “Parallel Adaptive Mesh Refinement Combined With Multigrid for a Poisson Equation”, Proc. 14th Annual Conference of the CFD Society of Canada, July 16-July 18, 2006, Kingston, Ontario, Canada.
A. Keats, F.S. Lien and E. Yee (2006), “Source Determination in Built-Up Environments Through Bayesian Inference With Validation Using the MUST Array and Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Experiments”, Proc. 14th Annual Conference of the CFD Society of Canada, July 16-July 18, 2006, Kingston, Ontario, Canada.
F.S. Lien, E. Yee and H. Ji (2006), “Modeling Wind Flow and Turbulence in Oklahoma City”, Proc. 4th International Symposium on Computational Wind Engineering, July 16-July 19, 2006, Pacifico Yokohama, Yokohama, Japan.
E. Yee, F.S. Lien, A. Keats, K.J. Hsieh and R. D’Amours (2006), “Validation of Bayesian Inference for Emission Source Distribution Retrieval Using the Joint Urban 2003 and European Tracer Experiments”, Proc. 4th International Symposium on Computational Wind Engineering, July 16-July19, 2006, Pacifico Yokohama, Yokohama, Japan.
F.S. Lien, E. Yee, H. Ji, A. Keats and K.J. Hsieh (2006), “Application of CFD to Security Science: Progress on the Development of a High-Fidelity Numerical Model for Hazard Prediction and Assessment in the Urban Environment”, to be published in CFD Society of Canada Bulletin #17.
Refereed Journal Papers (in preparation):
A. Keats, E. Yee and F.S. Lien (2006), “Efficiently Locating and Characterizing the Source of an Active Tracer Through Bayesian Inference”, to be submitted to Ecological Modelling.
H. Ji, F.S. Lien and E. Yee (2006), “Parallel Adaptive Mesh Refinement Combined With Multigrid for a Poisson Equation”, to be submitted to International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids.
H. Ji, F.S. Lien and E. Yee (2006), “A Robust and Efficient Cartesian Grid Method Combined With Adaptive Mesh Refinement for Moving Boundary Problems on Irregular Domains”, to be submitted to Journal of Computational Physics.
K.J. Hsieh, F.S. Lien and E. Yee (2006), “Partially Resolved Numerical Simulation for Turbulent Flow Over an Array of Obstacles”, to be submitted to Flow, Turbulence and Combustion.
E. Yee and R. D’Armours (2006), “Application of Bayesian Probability Theory to Source Inversion for European Tracer Experiment”, to be submitted to Theoretical and Applied Geophysics
The Technical Cooperation Program (TTCP)
E. Yee (2005) “Recent Progress on Modeling of Flows and Dispersion: From Canonical to Complex Flows”, TTCP CBR Group, Technical Panel 9, Defence Science and Technology Organization, Melbourne, Australia, 31 January – 4 February 2005.
E. Yee (2005) “Probabilistic Inference: An Application to Inverse Source Function Estimation”, TTCP CBR Group, Technical Panel 9, Defence Science and Technology Organization, Melbourne, Australia, 31 January – 4 February 2005.
E. Yee (2006) “Advances in Development of Emergency Response System for CBRN Prediction and Assessment in the Urban Environment”, TTCP CBR Group, Technical Panel 9, US Army Dugway Proving Ground, 13-17 February 2006.
E. Yee and R. D’Armours (2006) “Application of Bayesian Inference to Source Function Retrieval for European Tracer Experiment (ETEX)”, TTCP CBR Group, Technical Panel 9, US Army Dugway Proving Ground, 13-17 February 2006.
Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on CB Defence
E. Yee (2006) “Advanced Emergency Response System for CBRN Hazard Prediction and Assessment in the Urban Environment”, International Task Force 49 Meeting (Battlespace Information Management Systems), Directorate of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Defence, Ottawa Ontario, July 11, 2006.
E. Yee, “A Bayesian Approach for Reconstruction of the Characteristics of a Localized Pollutant Source by Spatially Distributed Electronic Noses”, Moscow Colloquium, Science and Innovations Agency of the Russian Federation/Karpov Institute of Physical Chemistry, Moscow, June 19-21, 2006.
PROJECT STATUS AND ACCOMPLISHMENTS since November 2004 (last PRC) (cont’d)
Linkages with many CRTI projects has continued…
SCHEDULE / MILESTONE REVIEW: Detailed milestones (tasks)
See detailed milestone (tasks) document
See document extracted from project charter revision
Without considering the PSTP (240K) or roll-over funds (105K)
Including the PSTP (240K) or roll-over funds (105K)
3.3 Project AssumptionsThe Project Plan assumes that:
Funding as approved under the project will remain available and disbursed on time: OK.
Start date of research and development for components 1 and 4 is based on having a contract in place with PWGSC by August 1, 2003…: OK
New and qualified personnel will be hired ….: OK
Key existing personnel will be available throughout the project.
We were able to react relatively quickly when Claude Pelletier left the project last fall. A new employee was hired. Otherwise we have been able to maintain the right level of required staff to advance the project.
Key equipment (computing infrastructure) and key datasets will be available:
Generally speaking main computing infrastructures and datasets have been available. However, there has been some slow downs and risk associated with the significant delays of the IBM supercomputer upgrade and associated systems. This is a file which we are monitoring closely. To minimize this risk we have purchased a set of high performance front end nodes (40 node InfinitiBand cluster) which should be available for our use by August 2006. We expect to be able to run our tests on this machine.
3.4 Project Constraints
A significant component of the Validation phase of the project (component 5) is constrained by the availability of flow and dispersion data sets to be acquired during JUT 2003 in Oklahoma City: OK. We have access to OKC datasets and as well to MUSE1-2 datasets.
Unfortunately, no access is expected to the New-York City Tracer experiment for some years.
For all Federal Departments involved in the project
· Risk: A national or international crisis or other immediate events triggering emergency response will delay the conduct of the project
Mitigation: CRTI secretariat to be advised immediately. Components of the project to be delivered by private companies will not be affected. Project plan for deliverables will be modified accordingly, financial impacts will be assessed and the Charter will be adjusted.
Defence R&D Canada -- Suffield · Risk: Transfer of mathematical urban flow models to Waterloo CFD Engineering Consulting Inc. in a format understood by all is problematic Mitigation: Ongoing communication with project partners at Waterloo CFD Engineering Consulting Inc. (e-mail, teleconference, and meetings as needed) to allow for smooth transfer of DRDC Suffield mathematical models to Waterloo for numerical solution coding --- Modelling Group at DRDC Suffield will collaborate closely with the CFD Modelling Group at Waterloo to ensure fidelity in the model transfer and in the implementation of the proposed flow models· Risk: Delay in obtaining data from the Joint Urban Trial (JUT) 2003 Mitigation: Ensure that all appropriate security clearances are granted· Risk: IP issues and disputesMitigation: Pass information to IP office as soon as possible for resolution
Environment Canada – Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC)· Risk: Availability of qualified technical staff to undertake certain phases of the project.Mitigation: One Research Scientist (RES) and one Post-doctoral Fellow (PDF) with the required expertise are in the process of being hired to support work on this project full time.· Risk: Availability of staff for Project Management and Coordination Mitigation: New staff member to aid project manager (Mr Michel Jean) with project coordination has been hired.· Risk: Difficulty in the implementation and/or porting of code to the new IBM massively parallel supercomputing platform (which is currently being brought on-line at Canadian Meteorological Centre).Mitigation: New RES to be hired with strong parallel computing background.Mitigation: Resources have been set aside at CMC to manage this issue.· Risk: Difficulty in coupling the micro and meso-gamma scale model.Mitigation: Maintain close on-going collaboration with Waterloo CFD Engineering Consulting Inc. microscale model development and implementation team.Mitigation: Provide Waterloo CFD Engineering Consulting Inc. Implementation Team with full documentation for the GEM-GEM LAM model.Mitigation: Employment of a common GUI between EC-CMC and Waterloo CFD Engineering Consulting Inc.(CMC Modeling Toolbox will provide the common interface). · Risk: Lack of attention to needs of end users (first responders).Mitigation: Work with CMC to understand existing emergency response system and FNEP TAG requirements.
Our strong involvement with CRTI project 05-0058TD (inoperability framework in the Vancouver area) will be our
main initial connection with the first responders.
· Risk: Tracer data from Oklahoma test site is delayed.Mitigation: Consultation with project team members from AECL and HC-RPB who have extensive experience in model validation.Mitigation: Additional data from AECL and/or HC-RPB could be usedfor model validation in place of the expected comprehensive urban flow and dispersion data sets to be acquired in JUT 2003.· Risk: Oklahoma City vector format GIS data not compatible with EC-CMC softwareMitigation: Consult with team members from DRDC Suffield and WaterlooCFD Engineering Consulting Inc.Mitigation: Ensure that the necessary graphics packages are available at EC-CMC.Mitigation: Ensure that qualified staff are available to manipulate the vector format GIS data.· Risk: Model predictions do not agree with experimental data within acceptable margins (defined in the literature)Mitigation: Allow time for model revisions based upon initial testing.Mitigation: Allow time for a documented discussion of project limitations.
J.D. Wilson & Associates (Dr J.D. Wilson)
· Risk: Delay in the coupling of the micro and meso-gamma scale model to delay Lagrangian Stochastic (LS) model verification and validation.Mitigation: Offline model testing with in house data sets until coupled code complete --- LS model validation (primarily urban dispersion model validation can begin immediately by coupling model to the urban microscale flow model to investigate predictive accuracy of the model at short range [up to about 2 km]).
Atomic Energy Canada Limited (AECL)
· Risk: Access to classified information is denied.Mitigation: Reliance on other team members already having obtained the necessary security clearance. · Risk: Access to sensitive measurements at AECL CRL is denied to project members.Mitigation: An agreement with the responsible body at AECL describing the use that project members will make with the data and a review of material to be published by AECL to eliminate sensitive information
Health Canada (Radiation Protection Bureau)· Risk: Availability of data sets for verification and validation of the modelling system.Mitigation: Preparation of data sets in parallel as modelling system is being developed. Work is currently underway along those lines through the joint work between HC RPB and EC CMC for assessment of a noble gas analyzer in the context of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.
Included in the schedule and financial plans in the project charter. Adjustments to the end time of some of the milestones and tasks.
2- Use of roll-over funds from first two years of the project