Passenger movements between australian cities 1970 71 to 2030 31
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PASSENGER MOVEMENTS BETWEEN AUSTRALIAN CITIES, 1970–71 TO 2030–31. David Gargett Afzal Hossain 13 February 2007. . Background. Arose from need to forecast light vehicle traffic on the national highways. But need to consider all modes. Thus aim is to model drivers of total

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PASSENGER MOVEMENTS BETWEEN AUSTRALIAN CITIES, 1970–71 TO 2030–31

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Passenger movements between australian cities 1970 71 to 2030 31

PASSENGER MOVEMENTS BETWEEN AUSTRALIAN CITIES,1970–71 TO 2030–31

David Gargett

Afzal Hossain

13 February 2007


Background

Background

  • Arose from need to forecast light

  • vehicle traffic on the national highways.

  • But need to consider all modes.

  • Thus aim is to model drivers of total

  • passenger travel between cities.

  • Only then can one predict highway car

  • travel patterns.


Objectives

Objectives

  • Estimation of passenger movements by mode between Australian major cities from 1970-71 to 2003-04.

  • What will growth be to 2030-31 in passenger movements by mode between Australian cities?


Ten city pairs

Ten city pairs

  • Sydney-Melbourne

  • Sydney-Brisbane

  • Melbourne-Brisbane

  • Melbourne-Adelaide

  • Eastern States-Perth

  • Sydney-Adelaide

  • Melbourne and Sydney-Gold Coast

  • Eastern States-Tasmania

  • Canberra-Sydney

  • Eastern States-Northern Territory


Modes

Modes

  • Air

  • Car

  • Coach

  • Rail

  • Other


Time series

Time series

Historical Data: 1970-71 to 2003-04

Projections: 2004-05 to 2030-31

Based on

GDP (Treasury)

Population Growth Rates (ABS)

Changes in Fares (various sources)


Main data sources

Main data sources

  • Designed around tourism data on inter-regional passenger movements.

  • Because the data has been and continues to be measured by Tourism Research Australia (TRA), to the tune of $4M/year.

  • TRA surveys both domestic and international travellers about their travel between the regions of Australia.

  • This data has been assembled for the 10 city pairs by mode from 1970-71 to 2003-04.


Gravity model

Gravity Model

Total passenger travel between any two cities (say i and j)can be calculated:

Tij = (Pi x Pj x GDPc2)0.524 / (Tc / CPI)-0.565

where

Tij - Total trips between regions i and j.

Pi and Pj - Total population in region i and region j.

GDPc - National gross domestic product per capita.

Tc - Real generalised cost of travel.

CPI - Consumer Price Index.


Logistic substitution model

Logistic Substitution Model

  • Forecasts of total travel were converted to forecasts for specific modes by using logistic substitution models of mode split.

  • For each mode, a competitivenessindex was estimated based on changes in the mode share over the last decade.

  • A competitivenessindex below 1.0 means the mode is expected to decline over time in share relative to air.


Logistic substitution model contd

Logistic Substitution Model – Contd.

For example, on the short Canberra-Sydney route, the competitiveness indices are:

Air - 1.00

Car - 1.02

Coach - 0.98

Rail - 1.03

On the long Sydney-Brisbane route (more typical of the intercity routes), the competitiveness indices are:

Air – 1.00

Car - 0.97

Coach- 0.93

Rail - 0.93


Passenger movements by mode

Passenger Movements by Mode


Mode share per cent

Mode Share (per cent)


Average annual growth rates by mode 1970 71 to 2003 04

Average annual growth rates by mode,1970-71 to 2003-04


Average annual growth rates comparison all modes

Average annual growth rates comparison (all modes)


So what do we get

So what do we get ?

  • An understanding of the drivers of travel.

  • An understanding of the patterns of mode share change.

  • A link to a continuing and funded data source updated yearly.

  • 1 to 3 provide the basis for the OZPASS interregional travel model.

  • Forecasts out of the OZPASS model are providing forecasts of car traffic along AUSLINK Corridors.


Passenger movements between australian cities 1970 71 to 2030 31

These forecasts are:

  • Systematic – based on transparent research.

  • Validated – Bruce Highways over 10 years.

  • Multi-modal – e.g. current airports project.

  • Open to scenarios – i.e. policy changes or changes in assumed conditions (e.g. fares).


Summary

Summary

  • On all routes, except Canberra–Sydney route, air travel has been progressively taking mode share from car plus coach and rail.

  • This effect will be less important in the future as the rate of mode share capture by air slows.

  • Overall, total passenger travel growth is expected to continue to grow more quickly than GDP.

  • The relationships found on the 10 corridors have been built into the OZPASS interregional travel model.


For a copy of the publication visit

FOR A COPY OF THE PUBLICATION VISIT:

www.btre.gov.au/Publications/Information Sheet/

Information Sheet 26


Thank you

Thank you

Any question ?


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