PASSENGER MOVEMENTS BETWEEN AUSTRALIAN CITIES, 1970–71 TO 2030–31. David Gargett Afzal Hossain 13 February 2007. . Background. Arose from need to forecast light vehicle traffic on the national highways. But need to consider all modes. Thus aim is to model drivers of total
13 February 2007
Historical Data: 1970-71 to 2003-04
Projections: 2004-05 to 2030-31
Population Growth Rates (ABS)
Changes in Fares (various sources)
Total passenger travel between any two cities (say i and j)can be calculated:
Tij = (Pi x Pj x GDPc2)0.524 / (Tc / CPI)-0.565
Tij - Total trips between regions i and j.
Pi and Pj - Total population in region i and region j.
GDPc - National gross domestic product per capita.
Tc - Real generalised cost of travel.
CPI - Consumer Price Index.
For example, on the short Canberra-Sydney route, the competitiveness indices are:
Air - 1.00
Car - 1.02
Coach - 0.98
Rail - 1.03
On the long Sydney-Brisbane route (more typical of the intercity routes), the competitiveness indices are:
Air – 1.00
Car - 0.97
Rail - 0.93
Information Sheet 26
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