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PASSENGER MOVEMENTS BETWEEN AUSTRALIAN CITIES, 1970–71 TO 2030–31. David Gargett Afzal Hossain 13 February 2007. . Background. Arose from need to forecast light vehicle traffic on the national highways. But need to consider all modes. Thus aim is to model drivers of total

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Passenger movements between australian cities 1970 71 to 2030 31

PASSENGER MOVEMENTS BETWEEN AUSTRALIAN CITIES,1970–71 TO 2030–31

David Gargett

Afzal Hossain

13 February 2007


Background
Background

  • Arose from need to forecast light

  • vehicle traffic on the national highways.

  • But need to consider all modes.

  • Thus aim is to model drivers of total

  • passenger travel between cities.

  • Only then can one predict highway car

  • travel patterns.


Objectives
Objectives

  • Estimation of passenger movements by mode between Australian major cities from 1970-71 to 2003-04.

  • What will growth be to 2030-31 in passenger movements by mode between Australian cities?


Ten city pairs
Ten city pairs

  • Sydney-Melbourne

  • Sydney-Brisbane

  • Melbourne-Brisbane

  • Melbourne-Adelaide

  • Eastern States-Perth

  • Sydney-Adelaide

  • Melbourne and Sydney-Gold Coast

  • Eastern States-Tasmania

  • Canberra-Sydney

  • Eastern States-Northern Territory


Modes
Modes

  • Air

  • Car

  • Coach

  • Rail

  • Other


Time series
Time series

Historical Data: 1970-71 to 2003-04

Projections: 2004-05 to 2030-31

Based on

GDP (Treasury)

Population Growth Rates (ABS)

Changes in Fares (various sources)


Main data sources
Main data sources

  • Designed around tourism data on inter-regional passenger movements.

  • Because the data has been and continues to be measured by Tourism Research Australia (TRA), to the tune of $4M/year.

  • TRA surveys both domestic and international travellers about their travel between the regions of Australia.

  • This data has been assembled for the 10 city pairs by mode from 1970-71 to 2003-04.


Gravity model
Gravity Model

Total passenger travel between any two cities (say i and j)can be calculated:

Tij = (Pi x Pj x GDPc2)0.524 / (Tc / CPI)-0.565

where

Tij - Total trips between regions i and j.

Pi and Pj - Total population in region i and region j.

GDPc - National gross domestic product per capita.

Tc - Real generalised cost of travel.

CPI - Consumer Price Index.


Logistic substitution model
Logistic Substitution Model

  • Forecasts of total travel were converted to forecasts for specific modes by using logistic substitution models of mode split.

  • For each mode, a competitivenessindex was estimated based on changes in the mode share over the last decade.

  • A competitivenessindex below 1.0 means the mode is expected to decline over time in share relative to air.


Logistic substitution model contd
Logistic Substitution Model – Contd.

For example, on the short Canberra-Sydney route, the competitiveness indices are:

Air - 1.00

Car - 1.02

Coach - 0.98

Rail - 1.03

On the long Sydney-Brisbane route (more typical of the intercity routes), the competitiveness indices are:

Air – 1.00

Car - 0.97

Coach- 0.93

Rail - 0.93





Average annual growth rates comparison all modes
Average annual growth rates comparison (all modes)


So what do we get
So what do we get ?

  • An understanding of the drivers of travel.

  • An understanding of the patterns of mode share change.

  • A link to a continuing and funded data source updated yearly.

  • 1 to 3 provide the basis for the OZPASS interregional travel model.

  • Forecasts out of the OZPASS model are providing forecasts of car traffic along AUSLINK Corridors.


These forecasts are:

  • Systematic – based on transparent research.

  • Validated – Bruce Highways over 10 years.

  • Multi-modal – e.g. current airports project.

  • Open to scenarios – i.e. policy changes or changes in assumed conditions (e.g. fares).


Summary
Summary

  • On all routes, except Canberra–Sydney route, air travel has been progressively taking mode share from car plus coach and rail.

  • This effect will be less important in the future as the rate of mode share capture by air slows.

  • Overall, total passenger travel growth is expected to continue to grow more quickly than GDP.

  • The relationships found on the 10 corridors have been built into the OZPASS interregional travel model.


For a copy of the publication visit
FOR A COPY OF THE PUBLICATION VISIT:

www.btre.gov.au/Publications/Information Sheet/

Information Sheet 26


Thank you
Thank you

Any question ?


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