Graduation Resiliency North Carolina’s Early Warning System

1. Graduation Resiliency North Carolina’s Early Warning System Debora Williams, Special Assistant Graduation and Dropout Prevention Initiatives NC Department of Public Instruction debora.williams@dpi.nc.gov

2. Do You Know?

3. Do You Know? The number of students dropping out of school annually in U.S.

4. The answer is…. Annual number of high school dropouts in U.S. 3,030,000 http://www.statisticbrain.com/high-school-dropout-statistics/

5. However… In school year 2008–09, more than three-quarters of public high school students graduated on time with a regular diploma. 2008-2009 AFGR 75.5 1990-1991 AFGR 73.7 http://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator_scr.asp

6. Do You Know? The number of students in North Carolina who dropped out of school in 2012

7. The answer is … Number of students dropping out of school in North Carolina (2012) 13,488 http://www.ncpublicschools.org/docs/research/discipline/reports/consolidated/2011-12/consolidated-report.pdf

8. A decrease from the previous year Number of students dropping out of school in North Carolina (2011) 15,773 http://www.ncpublicschools.org/docs/research/dropout/reports/2010-11/113countbylea.pdf

9. Do You Know? The grade at which students most frequently dropout of school

10. The answer is … In 2011-2012, students dropped out most frequently at grade 10 http://www.ncpublicschools.org/docs/research/discipline/reports/consolidated/2011-12/consolidated-report.pdf

11. Grade Distribution Grade 9 3677 Grade 10 3937 Grade 11 3486 Grade 12 2388 http://www.ncpublicschools.org/docs/research/discipline/reports/consolidated/2011-12/consolidated-report.pdf

12. Age Distribution 7 to 14 205 15 531 16 3384 17 4245 18 3796 19 1272 20+ 335 http://www.ncpublicschools.org/docs/research/discipline/reports/consolidated/2011-12/consolidated-report.pdf

13. Session Objectives • Discuss Why Students Dropout of School • Identifying Students At-Risk of Dropping Out • How You Can Help • Opportunities to Collaborate

14. WHY are students in North Carolina dropping out of school? http://www.ncpublicschools.org/docs/research/discipline/reports/consolidated/2011-12/consolidated-report.pdf

15. Why Students Drop Out • Attendance • Enrollment in a community college • Unknown • Moved, school status unknown • Lack of engagement • Academic problems

16. GRADUATION RESILIENCY

17. PurposeofGraduation Resiliency To facilitate an early warning system with research-based risk factors for identifying students who may be at risk of dropping out of school.

18. Research-based Risk Factors On-track Credits An on-track student has accumulated the requisite number of credits to move to the next grade level. An on-track student has no more than one semester “F” in a core subject.(Allensworth, 2009)

19. Research-based Risk Factors Attendance Eight times more predictive of failure than prior test scores. A student who has more than 5 absences in one semester of the 9th grade year has a 63% chance of graduating in four years. (Allensworth, 2009)

20. Research-based Risk Factors GPA Students with a “B” (3.0) average or higher in the first year have better than a 93% chance of graduating; students with a D+/C- (1.0-2.5 GPA) average have a 53-92% chance of graduating; students with less than a “D” average (1.0) have less than a 6% chance of graduating. (Allensworth, 2009)

21. Relevant NCWISE Data • Attendance data, both current and historical • State assessment achievement level data • Final marks for all middle school/high school courses • Most recently calculated GPA (calculated at year-end for grades 9-12) • Student name, pupil number, birth date, ninth-grade entry date

22. Report Organization There are 4 available reports • A ninth grade report, to be run at the start of ninth grade, considering the previous 3 years • A tenth grade report, to be run at the start of tenth grade, considering ninth grade data • An eleventh grade report, to be run at the start of eleventh grade, considering tenth grade data • An twelfth grade report, to be run at the start of twelfth grade, considering eleventh grade data

23. Information Source • All report data is historical. Only attendance data is updated after the start of school year. • Reports are run at the start of the school year. • Reports consider data from previous years. • Ninth grade report considers student data from grades 6, 7, and 8. • Tenth, eleventh, and twelfth grade report considers the data from the previous school year only.

24. Ninth Grade Risk Criteria • Final grade for standard required Math course (grades 6,7,8) < C • Final grade for standard required English course (grades 6,7,8) < C • Total daily absences, in any one school year, exceed 5 daily absences

25. Tenth/Eleventh/Twelfth Grade Risk Criteria • GPA < 2.0 • Total daily absencesexceed 5 daily absences • Achievement Level of I or II for EOCs • English I • Algebra I • Biology • Failure to achieve an expected level of course credits after each year in high school • At beginning of grade 10, less than 5 earned credits • At beginning of grade 11, less than 10 earned credits • At beginning of grade 12, less than 15 earned credits

26. Report Details • All reports are school level reports • Each report only contains students “at risk” for dropout • Each student has only one record in the report • Each column of the report represents a potential dropout risk factor

27. Twelfth Grade Sample Report

28. Ninth Grade Sample Report

29. Ninth Grade Sample Report

30. Having data is just the first step

31. Using the Reports • Sort by risk indicator (eg absences, grades, content) • Create PLC to consider data and interventions • Match intervention to risk • Create individual or small group plans • Collaborate among agencies (community, school, business)

32. Recommendations • District and/or School-based Action Team • Scheduled data review • Design appropriate interventions • Monitor results

33. This Presentation Will Be Posted The Message: Graduate! Graduation Resiliency http://dpi.state.nc.us/graduate/

34. Third Annual Town Hall Meeting on Graduation and Dropout Prevention 2013 Collaborative Conference on Student Achievement March 25-27 Sheraton Four Seasons/Koury Convention Center Greensboro For More Information, Visit http://dpi.state.nc.us/academicservices/conference/

35. Contact Debora Williams, Special Assistant Graduation Initiatives (919) 807-3912 debora.williams@dpi.nc.gov

36. NC WISE Reporting Hub Instructions/Steps • Logon to the NCWISE Reporting Hub • https://reportinghub.ncwise.org/login.jsp • NC WISE Reporting Hub is available to: • NC WISE LEA coordinator • NC WISE school data manager • Principal • Some counselors

37. Report Names The NC WISE reports to be used in the Graduation Resiliency process are called the “Early Warning Reports”. • 9th Grade Dropout Early Warning Report • 10th Grade Dropout Early Warning Report • 11th Grade Dropout Early Warning Report • 12th Grade Dropout Early Warning Report

38. Adding Reports to Your Preferred Report List • The Early Warning reports must be added to your “preferred” list of reports in the Reporting Hub. • If these reports are not on your preferred list (Check for the reports on the “run reports” tab under school reports.), then they should be added. • To add a report, go-to the “report search tab”. Enter the word “warning” in the search box for the title. The following reports should display on the list of reports that have “warning” in the title.

39. Adding Reports to Your Preferred Report List (continued) • Click the checkbox beside each report and Click “Add to my preferred Reports” • Select the “run reports” tab” on the upper right of the screen. • The new reports should appear on your list of available reports (at the school level) in the “run reports” tab.

40. To Run a Report • Select the “run reports” tab. • Open the School level queries list on the left (click the plus sign (+) beside “school level queries”. • Locate the appropriate “Dropout Early Warning” report in the list and select. • The data will display on the right side of the screen.

41. To Run a Report (continued) • Note: For an LEA, the report may automatically run for the admin school. If this happens no data will display. After this execution completes—select the appropriate school from the list of schools, and the query will execute for the chosen school. • Report executes and results display.

42. To Download Data to MS Excel with Column Headers • From the options across the upper right side of the display, select the column headers option to retain the header information • NOTE: Separator defaults to comma (csv) • Click on “download extract” • From the file pop-up, choose “save” to save to your PC • Open with MS Excel

43. Potential Analysis Strategies • Sorting by risk level to determine the students with the most/least issues • Sort by GPA to find high GPA students with targeted issues – too many absences • Sort by math final marks or EOC algebra final marks to group for tutoring

44. This Presentation Will Be Posted The Message: Graduate! Graduation Resiliency http://dpi.state.nc.us/graduate/

45. Contacts • Debora Williams, Special Assistant Graduation Initiatives (919) 807-3912 debora.williams@dpi.nc.gov • Betsy Baugess, Manager Data/Software & Reporting (919) 807-3276 betsy.baugess@dpi.nc.gov