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CES and LAUS: Advanced. Current Employment Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics. CES: CHANGES & DATA. CODE STRUCTURE, SIC TO NAICS DATA REVISIONS MSA DEFINITIONS SAMPLE AND ESTIMATION METHODS. CES DATA. INDUSTRY CODE CHANGES ARE SMOOTHED CES IS A TRUE TIME SERIES

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ces and laus advanced

CES and LAUS: Advanced

Current Employment Statistics

Local Area Unemployment Statistics

ces changes data
CES: CHANGES & DATA
  • CODE STRUCTURE, SIC TO NAICS
  • DATA REVISIONS
  • MSA DEFINITIONS
  • SAMPLE AND ESTIMATION METHODS
ces data
CES DATA
  • INDUSTRY CODE CHANGES ARE SMOOTHED
  • CES IS A TRUE TIME SERIES
  • THERE HAS BEEN A HISTORICAL RECONSTRUCTION OF NAICS DATA BACK TO 1990
ces data revisions
CES DATA: REVISIONS
  • CES DATA IS REVISED MONTHLY (ONCE) AND ANNUALY (TWICE)
  • THE MONTHLY REVISION, BASED ON A MORE COMPLETE SAMPLE COLLECTION, IS PUBLISHED WITH THE FOLLOWING MONTHS DATA RELEASE
ces data revisions1
CES DATA: REVISIONS
  • IN THE ANNUAL BENCHMARK PROCESS THE PREVIOUS YEARS DATA IS REPLACED BY ADJUSTED QCEW (TAX RECORD) DATA THROUGH THE BENCHMARK MONTH AND THE BALANCE OF THE YEAR IS

RE-ESTIMATED

  • AT THE SAME TIME, THE DATA FOR THE SECOND YEAR PREVIOUS IS COMPLETELY REPLACED BY ADJUSTED QCEW DATA
msa changes denver
MSA CHANGES: DENVER

PRESENT ADDITIONS

ces sampling
CES: SAMPLING
  • THE BASIC SAMPLE UNIT IS THE UEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE (UI) ACCOUNT
  • MULTIPLE WORKPLACE ENITIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE UI ACCOUNT
  • THERE ARE ADJUSTMENTS FOR BIRTH/DEATH
ces sampling1
CES: SAMPLING
  • CES HAS CHANGED SAMPLING AND ESTIMATION METHODS.
  • OLD METHOD: QUOTA
    • NON-RESPONSE PROBLEMS WERE ADDRESSED BY FREE SUBSTITUTION, INTRODUCING BIAS.
    • BIRTH/DEATH ADJUSTMENT WAS MULTIPLICTIVE.
ces sampling2
CES: SAMPLING
  • NEW METHOD: PROBABILITY
    • RANDOM SAMPLE SELECTION.
    • WEIGHTED ESTIMATORS CAN BE USED.
    • CONFIDENCE INTERVALS CAN BE ESTABLISHED.
    • IMPROVED MONITORING OF ACTUAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS.
ces model
CES: MODEL
  • OLD METHOD: CURRENT LINK RELATIVE
    • L = aec/aep
    • Where: aec = all employment for current month\'s current matched sample
    • aep = total ae for previous month\'s current matched sample.
ces model example
CES: MODEL EXAMPLE
  • A SAMPLE OF 3 MEMBERS WITH DIFFERENT EMPLOYMENT SIZES:
    • COMPANY ‘x’ HAS 10 WORKERS THIS MONTH, LAST MONTH 9. THERE ARE 10 COMPANIES THIS SIZE IN THE STATE
    • COMPANY ‘y’ HAS 100 NOW, 99 LAST MONTH. THERE ARE 5 THIS SIZE
    • COMPANY ‘z’ HAS 500 BOTH MONTHS. IT’S THE ONLY COMPANY THIS SIZE
    • THERE ARE 10,000 EMPLOYEES IN THE INDUSTRY STATEWIDE
ces model example old
CES: MODEL EXAMPLE OLD
  • THE CURRENT LINK WOULD BE:
    • L = ( x + y + z )now/(x + y + z)last
    • L = (10 + 100 + 500) / (9 + 99 + 500)
    • L = 1.0033
    • LINK IS STABLIZED BY COMPANY z, THE ONLY COMPANY ITS SIZE
ces model1
CES: MODEL
  • OLD MODEL - APPLY LINK TO GET THE EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATE:
  • AEc = (L)(Fc) (AEp)
    • Where: AEc = AE estimate for current month
    • AEp = AE estimate for previous month
    • L = current link relative
    • Fc = bias adjustment factor for current month
ces model example old1
CES: MODEL EXAMPLE OLD
  • LET THE AEp = 10,000
  • LET THE ADJUSTMENT FOR BIAS, Fc = 1.001
  • THE ESTIMATE WOULD BE:
    • AEc = (L)(Fc)(AEp)
    • AEc = (1.0033)(1.001)(10,000)
    • AEc = 1043
    • THE BIAS ADJUSTMENT INTERACTS WITH THE LINK
ces model2
CES: MODEL
  • NEW MODEL; WEIGHTED LINK RELATIVE
    • AEc = AEp ((Σ(w * aec )/(Σ(w*aep)) + (BIRTH/DEATH FACTOR)
    • WHERE w IS THE WEIGHT OF A INDIVIDUAL SAMPLE MEMBER
    • aec IS THAT MEMBER’S CURRENT EMPLOYMENT
    • aep IS THE PREVIOUS MONTHS EMPLOYMENT
    • THE B/D FACTOR IS A SEPARATE BLS ESTIMATE
ces model example new
CES: MODEL EXAMPLE NEW
  • USING THE SAME COMPANIES, AND A B/D FACTOR OF 10
    • THE WEIGHTS ARE DETERMINED BY THE NUMBER OF COMPANIES OF A GIVEN SIZE IN THE INDUSTRY BEING SAMPLED
    • COMPANY x HAS WEIGHT, w = 10
    • COMPANY y HAS w = 5
    • COMPANY z HAS w = 1
ces model example new1
CES: MODEL EXAMPLE NEW
  • USING THE SAME DATA AS IN THE OLD EXAMPLE THE NEW ESTIMATE IS:
    • AEc = AEp ((Σ(w * aec )/(Σ(w*aep)) + (BIRTH/DEATH FACTOR)
    • AEc = 10,000 (((10 * 10) + (5 * 100) + (1 * 500))/((10 * 9) + (5 * 99) + (1 * 500))) + 10
    • AEc = 10,000 * 1.0138 + 10
    • AEc = 10138 + 10 = 10148
ces model example new vs old
CES: MODEL EXAMPLE NEW vs OLD
  • THE OLD ESTIMATE WAS 10,043
  • THE NEW MODEL ESTIMATE IS 10,148
  • THE DIFFERENCE IS THE IMPACT OF SMALLER BUSINESS ON THE LINK
  • IF THE ESTIMATING CELL HAS LARGER EMPLOYMENT OR A GREATER LINK, THE OLD BIAS ADJUSTMENT FACTOR HAS A LARGER IMPACT
ces model3
CES: MODEL
  • WHY THE CHANGES?
    • THE NEW SAMPLE IS MORE REPRESENATIVE AND RESPONSIVE
    • THE WEIGHTED SAMPLE GIVES MORE MODEL IMPACT TO SMALL BUSINESS
    • THE BIRTH/DEATH ADJUSTMENT IS ADDITIVE SO ITS NOT SCALED TO MONTHLY RESULT
ces data limitations
CES DATA LIMITATIONS
  • Limited by area
  • Limited by industry detail
  • The results are designed to track direction as the primary item of interest
  • The absolute measure of level is the secondary item of interest, but this is addressed by Benchmarking the data
  • No demographic data is published
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