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CES and LAUS: Advanced. Current Employment Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics. CES: CHANGES & DATA. CODE STRUCTURE, SIC TO NAICS DATA REVISIONS MSA DEFINITIONS SAMPLE AND ESTIMATION METHODS. CES DATA. INDUSTRY CODE CHANGES ARE SMOOTHED CES IS A TRUE TIME SERIES

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CES and LAUS: Advanced

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Ces and laus advanced

CES and LAUS: Advanced

Current Employment Statistics

Local Area Unemployment Statistics


Ces changes data

CES: CHANGES & DATA

  • CODE STRUCTURE, SIC TO NAICS

  • DATA REVISIONS

  • MSA DEFINITIONS

  • SAMPLE AND ESTIMATION METHODS


Ces data

CES DATA

  • INDUSTRY CODE CHANGES ARE SMOOTHED

  • CES IS A TRUE TIME SERIES

  • THERE HAS BEEN A HISTORICAL RECONSTRUCTION OF NAICS DATA BACK TO 1990


Ces data revisions

CES DATA: REVISIONS

  • CES DATA IS REVISED MONTHLY (ONCE) AND ANNUALY (TWICE)

  • THE MONTHLY REVISION, BASED ON A MORE COMPLETE SAMPLE COLLECTION, IS PUBLISHED WITH THE FOLLOWING MONTHS DATA RELEASE


Ces data revisions1

CES DATA: REVISIONS

  • IN THE ANNUAL BENCHMARK PROCESS THE PREVIOUS YEARS DATA IS REPLACED BY ADJUSTED QCEW (TAX RECORD) DATA THROUGH THE BENCHMARK MONTH AND THE BALANCE OF THE YEAR IS

    RE-ESTIMATED

  • AT THE SAME TIME, THE DATA FOR THE SECOND YEAR PREVIOUS IS COMPLETELY REPLACED BY ADJUSTED QCEW DATA


Msa changes colorado springs

MSA CHANGES: COLORADO SPRINGS

Present

Additions


Msa changes denver

MSA CHANGES: DENVER

PRESENT ADDITIONS


Ces sampling

CES: SAMPLING

  • THE BASIC SAMPLE UNIT IS THE UEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE (UI) ACCOUNT

  • MULTIPLE WORKPLACE ENITIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE UI ACCOUNT

  • THERE ARE ADJUSTMENTS FOR BIRTH/DEATH


Ces sampling1

CES: SAMPLING

  • CES HAS CHANGED SAMPLING AND ESTIMATION METHODS.

  • OLD METHOD: QUOTA

    • NON-RESPONSE PROBLEMS WERE ADDRESSED BY FREE SUBSTITUTION, INTRODUCING BIAS.

    • BIRTH/DEATH ADJUSTMENT WAS MULTIPLICTIVE.


Ces sampling2

CES: SAMPLING

  • NEW METHOD: PROBABILITY

    • RANDOM SAMPLE SELECTION.

    • WEIGHTED ESTIMATORS CAN BE USED.

    • CONFIDENCE INTERVALS CAN BE ESTABLISHED.

    • IMPROVED MONITORING OF ACTUAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS.


Ces model

CES: MODEL

  • OLD METHOD: CURRENT LINK RELATIVE

    • L = aec/aep

    • Where: aec = all employment for current month's current matched sample

    • aep = total ae for previous month's current matched sample.


Ces model example

CES: MODEL EXAMPLE

  • A SAMPLE OF 3 MEMBERS WITH DIFFERENT EMPLOYMENT SIZES:

    • COMPANY ‘x’ HAS 10 WORKERS THIS MONTH, LAST MONTH 9. THERE ARE 10 COMPANIES THIS SIZE IN THE STATE

    • COMPANY ‘y’ HAS 100 NOW, 99 LAST MONTH. THERE ARE 5 THIS SIZE

    • COMPANY ‘z’ HAS 500 BOTH MONTHS. IT’S THE ONLY COMPANY THIS SIZE

    • THERE ARE 10,000 EMPLOYEES IN THE INDUSTRY STATEWIDE


Ces model example old

CES: MODEL EXAMPLE OLD

  • THE CURRENT LINK WOULD BE:

    • L = ( x + y + z )now/(x + y + z)last

    • L = (10 + 100 + 500) / (9 + 99 + 500)

    • L = 1.0033

    • LINK IS STABLIZED BY COMPANY z, THE ONLY COMPANY ITS SIZE


Ces model1

CES: MODEL

  • OLD MODEL - APPLY LINK TO GET THE EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATE:

  • AEc = (L)(Fc) (AEp)

    • Where: AEc = AE estimate for current month

    • AEp = AE estimate for previous month

    • L = current link relative

    • Fc = bias adjustment factor for current month


Ces model example old1

CES: MODEL EXAMPLE OLD

  • LET THE AEp = 10,000

  • LET THE ADJUSTMENT FOR BIAS, Fc = 1.001

  • THE ESTIMATE WOULD BE:

    • AEc = (L)(Fc)(AEp)

    • AEc = (1.0033)(1.001)(10,000)

    • AEc = 1043

    • THE BIAS ADJUSTMENT INTERACTS WITH THE LINK


Ces model2

CES: MODEL

  • NEW MODEL; WEIGHTED LINK RELATIVE

    • AEc = AEp ((Σ(w * aec )/(Σ(w*aep)) + (BIRTH/DEATH FACTOR)

    • WHERE w IS THE WEIGHT OF A INDIVIDUAL SAMPLE MEMBER

    • aec IS THAT MEMBER’S CURRENT EMPLOYMENT

    • aep IS THE PREVIOUS MONTHS EMPLOYMENT

    • THE B/D FACTOR IS A SEPARATE BLS ESTIMATE


Ces model example new

CES: MODEL EXAMPLE NEW

  • USING THE SAME COMPANIES, AND A B/D FACTOR OF 10

    • THE WEIGHTS ARE DETERMINED BY THE NUMBER OF COMPANIES OF A GIVEN SIZE IN THE INDUSTRY BEING SAMPLED

    • COMPANY x HAS WEIGHT, w = 10

    • COMPANY y HAS w = 5

    • COMPANY z HAS w = 1


Ces model example new1

CES: MODEL EXAMPLE NEW

  • USING THE SAME DATA AS IN THE OLD EXAMPLE THE NEW ESTIMATE IS:

    • AEc = AEp ((Σ(w * aec )/(Σ(w*aep)) + (BIRTH/DEATH FACTOR)

    • AEc = 10,000 (((10 * 10) + (5 * 100) + (1 * 500))/((10 * 9) + (5 * 99) + (1 * 500))) + 10

    • AEc = 10,000 * 1.0138 + 10

    • AEc = 10138 + 10 = 10148


Ces model example new vs old

CES: MODEL EXAMPLE NEW vs OLD

  • THE OLD ESTIMATE WAS 10,043

  • THE NEW MODEL ESTIMATE IS 10,148

  • THE DIFFERENCE IS THE IMPACT OF SMALLER BUSINESS ON THE LINK

  • IF THE ESTIMATING CELL HAS LARGER EMPLOYMENT OR A GREATER LINK, THE OLD BIAS ADJUSTMENT FACTOR HAS A LARGER IMPACT


Ces model3

CES: MODEL

  • WHY THE CHANGES?

    • THE NEW SAMPLE IS MORE REPRESENATIVE AND RESPONSIVE

    • THE WEIGHTED SAMPLE GIVES MORE MODEL IMPACT TO SMALL BUSINESS

    • THE BIRTH/DEATH ADJUSTMENT IS ADDITIVE SO ITS NOT SCALED TO MONTHLY RESULT


Ces data limitations

CES DATA LIMITATIONS

  • Limited by area

  • Limited by industry detail

  • The results are designed to track direction as the primary item of interest

  • The absolute measure of level is the secondary item of interest, but this is addressed by Benchmarking the data

  • No demographic data is published


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