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Doug Manuel, MD, MSc, William M. Flanagan, BM, Meltem Tuna, PhD, Anya Okhmatovskaia, PhD, Philippe Finès, PhD; Carol Bennett, MSc. Coronary heart disease risk factors in Canada: a Microsimulation predictive model. Simulated Technology for Applied Research (STAR).

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Doug Manuel, MD, MSc,

William M. Flanagan, BM,

Meltem Tuna, PhD,

Anya Okhmatovskaia, PhD,

Philippe Finès, PhD;

Carol Bennett, MSc

Coronary heart disease risk factors in Canada: a Microsimulation predictive model


Simulated technology for applied research star
Simulated Technology for Applied Research (STAR)

  • A Canadian Institute for Health Research New Emerging Team including:

  • Behnam Sharif, MSc,

  • Jacek A. Kopec, MD, PhD,

  • Hubert Wong, PhD,

  • Aslam Anis , PhD,

  • Eric C. Sayre, PhD, M.

  • Mushfiqur Rahman, MSc,

  • David Buckeridge, MD, PhD,

  • Jillian Oderkirk, MSc,

  • Michal Abrahamowicz, PhD,

  • Sam Harper, PhD,

  • Michael C. Wolfson, PhD


Chronic diseases
Chronic Diseases

  • Major cause of death and disability worldwide.

  • Reason of more than 55 thousand deaths in Canada so far this year.

  • 57% of those under 65 live with at least one chronic condition.

  • An additional chronic disease raises the risk of hospitalization by 44% among people under age 60.


Risk factors

Behavioural

Smoking

Physical Inactivity

Biophysical

Obesity

Elevated Cholesterol

Blood Pressure

Risk Factors


Pohem population health model

Micro-simulation at Statistics Canada

POHEM: Population Health Model


Characteristics of pohem
Characteristics of POHEM

  • case-by-case, longitudinal, continuous time, stochastic, Monte Carlo microsimulation

  • directly encompasses competing risks and comorbidity

  • longitudinal risk factor and disease sub-modules

  • projects population forward in continuous time

  • generates plausible health biographies over the life course of synthetic individuals from empirical observations


Process for projecting coronary heart disease risks in canada 2001 to 2020
Process for projecting coronary heart disease risks in Canada, 2001 to 2020

Canadian population (2001)

Canadian Community Health Survey (2001)

Update for births, deaths, immigration, emigration and change in CAD risks

Update yearly

(2002 – 2009)

Compare births, deaths, immigration , emigration and prevalence of CAD.

Validate

(2002 – 2009)

Generate predictive estimates

(2010 – 2020)


Data sources
Data sources Canada, 2001 to 2020


Births and deaths yearly updates
Births and Deaths Canada, 2001 to 2020Yearly Updates


Immigration and emigration yearly updates
Immigration and Emigration Canada, 2001 to 2020Yearly Updates


Socioeconomic yearly updates
Socioeconomic Canada, 2001 to 2020Yearly Updates


Cad risks yearly updates
CAD Risks Canada, 2001 to 2020Yearly Updates



Observed vs predicted
Observed vs. Predicted Canada, 2001 to 2020




References
References Canada, 2001 to 2020

  • M.C. Wolfson , POHEM—a framework for understanding and modelling the health of human populations. Wld. Hlth. Statist. Quart.47 (1994), pp. 157–176

  • Statistics Canada. Canadian Community Health Surveys, Cycles 1.1-4.1, 2009-2010.


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