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Doug Manuel, MD, MSc, William M. Flanagan, BM, Meltem Tuna, PhD, Anya Okhmatovskaia, PhD, Philippe Finès, PhD; Carol Bennett, MSc. Coronary heart disease risk factors in Canada: a Microsimulation predictive model. Simulated Technology for Applied Research (STAR).

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Coronary heart disease risk factors in Canada: a Microsimulation predictive model

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Coronary heart disease risk factors in canada a microsimulation predictive model

Doug Manuel, MD, MSc,

William M. Flanagan, BM,

Meltem Tuna, PhD,

Anya Okhmatovskaia, PhD,

Philippe Finès, PhD;

Carol Bennett, MSc

Coronary heart disease risk factors in Canada: a Microsimulation predictive model


Simulated technology for applied research star

Simulated Technology for Applied Research (STAR)

  • A Canadian Institute for Health Research New Emerging Team including:

  • Behnam Sharif, MSc,

  • Jacek A. Kopec, MD, PhD,

  • Hubert Wong, PhD,

  • Aslam Anis , PhD,

  • Eric C. Sayre, PhD, M.

  • Mushfiqur Rahman, MSc,

  • David Buckeridge, MD, PhD,

  • Jillian Oderkirk, MSc,

  • Michal Abrahamowicz, PhD,

  • Sam Harper, PhD,

  • Michael C. Wolfson, PhD


Chronic diseases

Chronic Diseases

  • Major cause of death and disability worldwide.

  • Reason of more than 55 thousand deaths in Canada so far this year.

  • 57% of those under 65 live with at least one chronic condition.

  • An additional chronic disease raises the risk of hospitalization by 44% among people under age 60.


Risk factors

Behavioural

Smoking

Physical Inactivity

Biophysical

Obesity

Elevated Cholesterol

Blood Pressure

Risk Factors


Pohem population health model

Micro-simulation at Statistics Canada

POHEM: Population Health Model


Characteristics of pohem

Characteristics of POHEM

  • case-by-case, longitudinal, continuous time, stochastic, Monte Carlo microsimulation

  • directly encompasses competing risks and comorbidity

  • longitudinal risk factor and disease sub-modules

  • projects population forward in continuous time

  • generates plausible health biographies over the life course of synthetic individuals from empirical observations


Process for projecting coronary heart disease risks in canada 2001 to 2020

Process for projecting coronary heart disease risks in Canada, 2001 to 2020

Canadian population (2001)

Canadian Community Health Survey (2001)

Update for births, deaths, immigration, emigration and change in CAD risks

Update yearly

(2002 – 2009)

Compare births, deaths, immigration , emigration and prevalence of CAD.

Validate

(2002 – 2009)

Generate predictive estimates

(2010 – 2020)


Data sources

Data sources


Births and deaths yearly updates

Births and DeathsYearly Updates


Immigration and emigration yearly updates

Immigration and Emigration Yearly Updates


Socioeconomic yearly updates

Socioeconomic Yearly Updates


Cad risks yearly updates

CAD Risks Yearly Updates


Coronary heart disease risk factors prevalence in 2001

Coronary heart disease risk factors, prevalence in 2001


Observed vs predicted

Observed vs. Predicted


Multiple risk factors diabetes obesity smoking

Multiple Risk Factors: Diabetes – Obesity - Smoking


Predicted and observed risk factors 2009 canada

Predicted and observed risk factors, 2009 Canada


References

References

  • M.C. Wolfson , POHEM—a framework for understanding and modelling the health of human populations. Wld. Hlth. Statist. Quart.47 (1994), pp. 157–176

  • Statistics Canada. Canadian Community Health Surveys, Cycles 1.1-4.1, 2009-2010.


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