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台灣未來經濟發展面臨之挑戰 ~ 京都議定書 ~ PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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台灣未來經濟發展面臨之挑戰 ~ 京都議定書 ~. 梁啟源 中央研究院經濟研究所 Feb. 2005. 背景說明. 在俄羅斯國會於去(民 93 )年 10 月 23 日通過簽署京都議定書後,京都議定書正式生效的兩個重要門檻,即超過 55 個國家簽署,且其溫室氣體總排放量超過 1990 年排放總額的百分之五十五,已因而通過。

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台灣未來經濟發展面臨之挑戰 ~ 京都議定書 ~

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6463776

~~

Feb. 2005


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931023551990

216WTOEUP


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  • CO274

  • GDP56.448.9GDP105.3

  • 199712111998

    • 2020CO2 (Business as usual) 2448

    • 20201.2

  • 2003CO219961.8962.679 4.9441.3


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1CO2 and GDP Growth in Taiwan,96-02


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2 Changes of Energy Efficiency in Taiwan 96-03


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3 Energy Structure Changes in Taiwan, 1996-2004


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4 CO2 GDP1996-2002


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1996-19995.551999-20032.58CO21996-19994.795.27CO20.721996-19992.611999-2003


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CO2

(1)199627%200332.0%CO2 2.7%11.3%1.2%7.7%5

(2)1999-20038.9%9.76%6


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5 (1996-2004)

Unit: %


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6 (1996-2003)


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  • 1

  • 2

  • 3CO2

  • 4


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  • 1996-2003

    • 2004621.516.5


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7


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8


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9


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  • 2.54435.93805.2669

  • 19962.548120032.5443

  • 1.99691.8287103


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10


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3


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2

    • 200310200421.6%10.5%26.3%64.6%

    • 2003ROE4.6%20049.0%GDP0.612%0.126%

    • 1.0%1.48%0.261.279%3.78%2.9%11


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119CO2


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(3)

(4)


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3

(1)

60


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(2)

33(23.212.9%


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  • (86)-0.31%0.3%

  • ()(-0.3)3923.87%(12.9%0.3)506

  • 1,133.56920.42%268,829.5


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(3)


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(4)

  • LPG

  • LPG


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4

(1)

  • CO2


12 1998

12 (1998)


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(2)

  • (22.2/CO2)(22.2/CO2) 25.77%

  • -36.45%-23%-15.76%-14.23%

  • 22.2/CO2GDP2.26%1.57%


13 co 2 22 2 co 2

13CO2[$ 22.2/CO2 ()] ()


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  • (22.2/ )GDP2.26%(2020)1.01%

  • 19992020221,4421,73416.8%


14 1999

14 (1999)()


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(3)

(4)

    • CO2


15 1999

15 (1999) ()


16 co 2 2020 22 2 co 2

16CO2(2020) [$ 22.2/CO2 ()] ()


17 2020

17(2020) ()


18 2020

18(2020)()


19 22 22 2 co 2

1922[$ 22.2/ CO2 ()]


20 co 2 1999

20CO2 (1999)


21 1999 2020 co 2

211999-2020CO2 ()


22 1999 2020 co 2

221999-2020CO2 ()


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2001 2020

2001-2020


2001 20201

(2001 ~ 2020)


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200130

  • .(Case1)20013020025

  • .(Case2)NEDO 20002003~2007202008~20205%


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  • -(2008)

  • 2020)

    • 3.24 % ( 5.384/166 MKLOE )

    • 8.31 % ( 224.4/2699 )


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92


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92


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1

2

1

2

3

4


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2.

3.


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4.

5.

6.


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()


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