1 / 14

Can we do without nuclear? Mind the economic conditions of a technological transition

Can we do without nuclear? Mind the economic conditions of a technological transition. Jean-Charles Hourcade DR CNRS, Directeur d’études EHESS. Lessons from the past , why a technical success …. … leads to so ambiguous economic outcomes. Trade balance vs. energy external bill.

cianna
Download Presentation

Can we do without nuclear? Mind the economic conditions of a technological transition

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Can we do without nuclear?Mind the economic conditions of a technological transition Jean-Charles Hourcade DR CNRS, Directeur d’études EHESS

  2. Lessonsfrom the past, why a technicalsuccess ….

  3. … leads to soambiguouseconomicoutcomes

  4. Trade balance vs.energyexternal bill

  5. Betweentechnical and economicalsuccess, whatparameters? • A ‘electrificationnuclear’ a lesser import-substitution effectthan the « substititutionnuclear » • Exchange rates variations in $ … and othercurrencies • Trade balance surplus and the purchasing power of oil and gaz • Industrial « strategies », includingtheir impact on energydemand • A « crowding out effect » ???? … good question but hard to settle

  6. An IAMC exercise: carbonconstraints and availability of technological options

  7. A lowcost for banningnuclear … even for a 550 ppm all gasesCarbon Concentration Target? GDP variation from the baseline Cost of the ban of nuclear

  8. Insights for the Future: ‘suggestions’ fromexisting world scenarios • Can the world « live » withoutnuclear? • « likely » yes in the absence of carbonconstraint • « lesslikely » yes in the presence of carbonconstraint … because the politicallimits to nuclear have already been internalized in baseline scenarios • Will the world « live » withoutnuclear? This willdependupondecisions in China, India as well as in the US and EU • France, a specific case becausenuclearis central in the electrical system

  9. France withoutnuclear: Let us pick one plausible but arbitrarybaseline …. And the « Taxe Quinet » • GDP growth rate: ~ from 1,9 % to 1,7 after 2035 • Electricitydemand: multiplied by 2 in 2050 • Emissions over 2010 and 2050 (baseline): 12,4 GtCO2 • Share of the nuclear: between 60% and 70% • Energyefficiency set of asymptotes • New and renewableenergies: a potential of 30% • Significant infrastructure investments in transport and buildings • Implementation of the Quinet’scarbontax • France has a nul externaldebt and a nul public debt in 2050

  10. GDP variations from the baseline

  11. GDP variations with fine tunedrecycling of the carbontax

  12. Conclusions: a threestepdebate to beconducted • Are carbon – free no nuke options (includingenergyefficiency) available the transition technicallyfeasible? • Highlycontroversial but, ultimately • A matter of direction of innovation and of pace of deployment • Economiclubricantsmatter • To support the re-direction of microeconomicdecisions • To minimize the social costs of the transition • Societalpre-conditions (not considered in the previous simulations) • The availablity of skilledlabor: does the education system ‘produces’ enoughingeniersandtechnicians in the concernedsectors • Beyondenergyefficiency, the consumption styles

More Related