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Lecture 21: Impacts on the Middle East (II) The American War in Iraq!

Lecture 21: Impacts on the Middle East (II) The American War in Iraq!. 26 th March 2003 (Wednesday). Rationales of the Mid-term Examination. Grade to be Posted Before Next Wednesday (Hopefully) Question Analysis Next Wednesday (Hopefully) Roles of Examinations

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Lecture 21: Impacts on the Middle East (II) The American War in Iraq!

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  1. Lecture 21: Impacts on the Middle East (II)The American War in Iraq! 26th March 2003 (Wednesday)

  2. Rationales of the Mid-term Examination • Grade to be Posted Before Next Wednesday (Hopefully) • Question Analysis Next Wednesday (Hopefully) • Roles of Examinations • Future-oriented: Grade [3-4-3] • Enrichment-oriented: Performance [?-?-?] • Newspaper Reader or Newspaper Commentator? • Political Science in the Perceptive Spectrum Political Science (Logic, Methodology, Induction, Deduction) History Water-blowing (Memorization) (Subjective Bluffing)

  3. Question 3: In the Anti-Terror Coalition, which of the followings is NOT a rationale for these countries to participate? • Britain – to elevate its national status by sticking to the Americans. • Mexico – to look for financial rewards from the United States. • Russia – to safeguard the achievements of the “Greek Plan” of Catherine the Great. [=Russia as an Eurasian Empire, inc. Chechenya] • USA – to pre-empt the terrorist threat of Afghanistan. • Uzbekistan – to be removed from the American list of authoritarian countries. Bush Doctrine I: Countries Chose to Harbor Terrorist = Terrorist (Vs Taliban) • Implication 1: Countries Have the Right to Choose (Active) • Implication 2: After Taking Side, the Countries are ALREADY the Terrorist, Need to be PUNISHED/EXECUTED, Instead of PRE-EMPTED Bush Doctrine II: Countries Suspected of Future Terrorist Tendency Have to be Pre-empted (Vs Iraq) • Implication 1: Countries Do NOT Have the Right to Choose (Passive) • Implication 2: After Being Assigned as Evil States, the Countries are POTENTIAL Threat of Terrorism, Need to be PRE-EMPTED, Instead of PUNISHED

  4. Question 14: Which of the following countries CAN be attacked by the United States AFTER the introduction of the revised Bush Doctrine? • Afghanistan. • Iraq. • China. • Britain. • All of the above. Bush Doctrine I: • To the USA: Passive (wait for the decision of others) • To other Countries: Active (can decide to take side) Bush Doctrine II: • To the USA: Active (can define the terrorist threat) • To other Countries: Passive (cannot even take side) Which of the following countries CAN be attacked by the United States AFTER the introduction of the original Bush Doctrine? • None of the above.

  5. Question 13: If Al Gore was elected as the American president in 2000, which of the followings is still MOST likely to happen after 911? • NOT Imaginary • The Hidden Questions: • What is the main difference between the foreign policy of the Democratic Party (Clinton-Gore) and the Republic Party (Reagan-Bush Sr.-Bush Jr.)? • How are the choices categorized? • The American War against Afghanistan. [Multilateralism] • The American War against Iraq. [Unilateralism] • The declination of Russian membership in NATO. [Unilateralism] • The formation of the Axis of Evil. [Unilateralism] • All of the above are likely to happen after 911 even with Al Gore as the president. • None of the above.  a debatable option

  6. Question 15: Through planning the 911 attack, Osama Bin Laden is likely to aim at the followings EXCEPT: • Not Imaginary • The Hidden Questions: • Are these options consistent to Islamic Fundamentalism that Osama Bin Laden believes? • Are they covered in the Grand Strategy of Laden’s Conspiracy Theory? [invite American attack  provoke the Muslims  alienate the Western allies  revolution of world order] • The American retreat from the Middle East. [step 1] • The aroused conscious of Pan-Islamism through provoking the American revenge. [step 1 & 2] • The change of status quo by removing America from the top. [step 4] • The handover of corrupted Middle East regimes to SECULARISM. • Secularism (the rule of non-religion) = Enemy of Islamic Fundamentalism • The current American War in Iraq. [step 1, 2 & 3]

  7. The Methodological Training • To differentiate the very similar facts in the newspapers, which represent very different hidden agendas • Bypass, cross, occupy, overcome, tackle… • To trace the MAIN origin of different facts contemporarily by the DEDUCTION logic • To predict the MAIN focus of different facts contemporarily by the INDUCTION logic • Inter-transferability in Real Life

  8. Announcements on Guest Speakers • Israel Consul General Eli Avidar • The Israeli-Palestinian Issue • Lecture 19: 19th March 2003 (Wednesday) • http://hongkong.mfa.gov.il • Indian Political Consul Anurag Goel • Indian Response to 911 and the Regional Order • Lecture 25: 31st March 2003 (Monday) • Please Sign Up for Lunch Afterwards • Advice on Presentation of T1, 2B, 3B: http://pshweb01.881903.com/main/event/hot/hot20030314cr2bd.asx

  9. Structure of Lecture 21: • The First Gulf War (1990-1991) • Impacts of the First Gulf War • Relationship between 911 and the Current American War in Iraq • Contrasting Diplomacy of the 2 Wars on Iraq • What can you tell? • Conclusion: • Macro Plans of the War? • Open Forum on the War

  10. PART IThe First Gulf War (1990-1991)

  11. Early History of Iraq • The Glorious and “Warlike” History of the Iraqis: • The Babylonian Empire • Saddam’s Idol: King Nebuchadnezzar • The Islamic Empire and the Arabian Nights • Iraqis under Ottoman Rule (1553-1914) • Message from the “Restoration” of Babylonian Heritage by Saddam Hussein

  12. British Imperialism in Middle East • Iraq as an Ottoman Province • British Imperialism of 19th Century • The “3B Plan”: Berlin, Budapest and Baghdad • Imperialist Rival between Britain, France and Russia in the Middle East • British “Protection” of Kuwait (1898) and the Iraqi Response • Iraqi Became a British Protectorate after WWI (1920) • Relations with the Current British Role?

  13. The Independent Iraq • 1932: Independence of Iraq • King Faisal I • Concept of “Economic Imperialism” and “Semi-colony” • 1958: Military Coup against King Faisal II • 1961: First Modern Claim of Kuwait by General Qasim

  14. Saddam Hussein and the “Least Islamist Islamic Country” • 1968: Arab Socialist Baath (Resurrection) Party • Purge of Islamic Fundamentalism! • 1979: Saddam Hussein and the Revolutionary Command Committee (RCC) • 1980-1988: Iran-Iraq War • Ayatollah Khomeni and the Islamic Revolution in Iran • Saddam Hussein as the Great Secular Leader • CIA Support towards Iraq

  15. Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait (Aug 1990) • Territorial Claim from History • Comparison with “Irredentism” of China • Expansionism as a Ruling Behavior of Dictators • The Waning of Cold War • Economic Solution to the Iran-Iraq War • The American “Go-ahead” Signal?

  16. International Response • United Nations Sanction and Condemnation • Security Council – 14:0:1 • Coalition Army of 34 Countries • USA, Britain, NATO • Gulf Cooperative Committee, Egypt, Syria • Desert Storm (Jan – April 1991)

  17. PART IIResults of the First Gulf War

  18. The Mystical Cease-fire • Conflicting Motivations within the American Government: • Diplomatic Concern of President George H W Bush • Military Concern of the Pentagon • American Denunciation to Support the Kurdish Minority • Continuation of the Saddam Regime “Preferable”

  19. Partition of Iraq • The Saddam Regime • “Kurdish Regional Government” in the North • The Separatist Movement of “Kurdistan” • “Protectorates” of the Shi’ites (No-Fly Zone) • The New Iranian-Iraqi Relationship

  20. United Nations Sanctions • 1990: Economic Sanctions • 1991: End of Iraq’s Mass Destruction Weapons • 1995: “Oil for Food” Program • 1998: “Operation Desert Fox” • Saddam: 1.7million deaths 1991-2002 • Resignation of United Nations Inspectors in Protest

  21. Long-term International Reactions • Rise of Pax Americana • American troops in Saudi Arabia • Kuwait as an American Protectorate • The Oil Value of the Gulf Cooperative Committee • Rise of Anti-Americanism • Osama Bin Laden, Al-Qaeda and Gulf War • Wahhabism in Saudi Arabia

  22. PART IIIRelationship between911 and the Current American War in Iraq

  23. Al-Qaeda and Saddam Hussein? • USA: • Al-Qaeda and Saddam Hussein are allies • Al-Qaeda in the Iraqi Government • Iraq provides technical assistance to Laden • Rival between Laden and Saddam • Islamic Fundamentalism Vs Secularism • Personal Rival for the Arabic Leadership

  24. Message Behind the Change of Iraqi National Flag (1991) • Red/ White/ Black: colors of the Socialists • The “takbir” = God is Great

  25. Mass Destruction Weapons (MDW)? • Mass Destruction Weapons: • A Range of Destruction Wider than the Sense of Self-Defense • Causing “Mass Destruction” • Chemical, Biological, Nuclear Weapons • Aggressive History of Iraq • United Nations Inspector Hans Blix

  26. Iraq in the Axis of Evil • Axis of Evil (January 2002): • Iran, Iraq, North Korea • Targets of American “Pre-emptive” Strategy • Comparison with North Korea • President Kim Jong Il – mad or smart? • Recognition of Mass Destruction Weapon • China and Russia as the Backstage Boss? • The American Tolerance or the Next Target?

  27. Popularity of President George W Bush • Popularity of George W Bush: • Over 80% after 911 • Highest since President FD Roosevelt • American Polls Today: • 75% In Favor of the War! • Election Concern?

  28. The Confidential “Post-Saddam Iraqi Order Proposal” of USA • Proposal right after 911 – or even earlier • Marshall Plan of 21st Century to Save the US Economy • Cheap Oil for 100 Years • Establishment of “Democratic Government” as an American Ally • Basis of Future American Campaign in the Middle East • Model: US Occupation of Japan after WWII

  29. Assigned Readings • Main Text: Found Ajami: “The Uneasy Imperium – Pax Americana in the Middle East” (H&R P.15-30) • Supplementary Text: • CNN Showdown Iraq Special (http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2002/iraq/) • CNN War in Iraq Special http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2003/iraq/ • BBC War in Iraq Special http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/middle_east/2002/conflict_with_iraq/default.stm • Arabic Peninsula Information http://www.aljazeerah.info/ • China Xinhua Agency War in Irq Special http://www.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/mywj/index.htm

  30. PART IV Contrasting Diplomacy of the Two American Wars on Iraq

  31. The Great Diplomatic Paradox • USA 1991: • Everything was Diplomatic • Acceptance of Previous Enemies into the Coalition (Syria) • Toleration of “Undemocratic” Allies (KSA) • Respect towards Other Nations (Russia, China) • In the Name of United Nations • USA 2002-2003: • Every was “Anti-diplomatic”–

  32. The Great Diplomatic Paradox (II) • Iraq 1990-1991: • Everything but Diplomatic • Alienation of Islamic Support • Isolation in the World • Iraq 2002-2003: • Everything but Anti-diplomatic • Mass Opinion War • Respect of United Nations and Big Powers • Arousing Islamic Consciousness

  33. Contrasting Reactions of the Islamic World • Syria: from joining the coalition army to semi-alliance with Iraq • KSA: from sponsor of Gulf War to the next American target • Kuwait and Gulf Cooperative Committee: from happy to worry • Pakistan: the path towards anti-America • Indonesia: the path towards anti-America

  34. Contrasting Reactions of the Traditional American Allies • Britain: from massive support to anti-war public • NATO: from closest partner to the diplomatic coup of France and Germany • Turkey: disallowance of lending its basis • Disappearance of French Toast in USA

  35. Contrasting Reactions from other World Powers • Russia: from a peace broker of the First Gulf War to an opposition party of the Second Gulf War • China: from neutral to supporting the Franco-German Proposal • United Nations: from the symbolic worldwide leadership to its downfall • Experience of the League of Nations

  36. Coalition of the Willing • 45 Members (Military OR Symbolic) Vs the Rest 160 of the World • 1991: 34 Military Members and More than 100 “Symbolic Members” • Western Traditional Allies (9): Australia, Britain, Denmark, Iceland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Turkey • Eastern Europe (13): Albania, Azerbajian, Bulgaria, Czech Rep, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia • Asian Allies (5): Japan, Philippines, Mongolia, Singapore, South Korea • Islamic Countries (3): Afghanistan, Kuwait, Uzbekistan • Latin America (6): Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua • Africa (4): Eritrea, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda • Pacific Islands (4): Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Palau, Solomon Islands

  37. Conclusion:Macro Purpose of the War?

  38. The Osama Bin LadenProposal: A Revision • Provocative Strategy • America occupation of Afghanistan to be Repeated in Iraq •  Anti-Americanism •  Islamic Fundamentalists gained power from the corruptive Islamic States •  Alienation of the America Allies •  Pan-Islamic Empire

  39. Provocative Strategy of George W Bush? • Anything but diplomatic = everything about non-diplomatic •  Provoking all sorts of anti-American sentiment in the region •  Excuse to overthrow them all •  Establish a new world order based on American interests in the Middle East •  Even tuning down the influence of ex-allies of the “Old World”……

  40. Open Forum Surprised by the American Efficiency? Surprised by the Republican Guard of Iraq? Misled/ Confused by the Psychological War? How long will it last? Any possibilities for America to lose? What will be its impacts?

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