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2003 Anchorage Economic Forecast

2003 Anchorage Economic Forecast. January 15, 2003 Anchorage Alaska Scott Goldsmith Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage. ISER. 2002: The Big Stories. National Recession Republican Sweep Stock Market Down PF Dividend Down Oil Price Up

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2003 Anchorage Economic Forecast

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  1. 2003 Anchorage Economic Forecast January 15, 2003 Anchorage Alaska Scott Goldsmith Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage ISER

  2. 2002: The Big Stories • National Recession • Republican Sweep • Stock Market Down • PF Dividend Down • Oil Price Up • ANWR & Gasline Stalled

  3. 2002: How We Did • Jobs • Population • Unemployment • Personal Income • Average Wage • Inflation

  4. Job Growth Rate History

  5. 2003: The Year Ahead • Negatives • National Recession--continuing • Iraqi War--uncertain • Fiscal Gap--unresolved • Seafood/Timber--struggling • PFD--down • Positives • Federal Spending--strong • Confidence Quotient --upbeat • Oil Price--high • Mining--optimism • National Recession--continuing

  6. Anchorage Jobs

  7. Annual Job Growth 2002 Jobs Services & Finance 49,300 (35%) 2003: +1,200 (2.4%) • DRIVERS • Medical • Construction • Tourists • Social Services • Statewide Business & HH • WHAT TO WATCH • Tourism Recovery • New Construction Projects • Interest Rates • Federal Budget

  8. Annual Job Growth 2002 Jobs Trade 32,800 (24%) 2003: +250 (.75%) • DRIVERS • Household Income • Tourists • Visitors • Statewide Business & HH • WHAT TO WATCH • Tourism Recovery • National Retailers • PFD • Population

  9. Annual Job Growth 2002 Jobs Government 29,600 ( 21%) 2003: +200 (0.7%) • WHAT TO WATCH • Federal Budget • State Legislature • DRIVERS • Federal Grants • Population • Privatization • Fiscal Gap

  10. Annual Job Growth 2002 Jobs Construction 8,000 (6%) 2003: +100 (1.25%) • DRIVERS • Federal Grants • Petroleum Investment • Population • WHAT TO WATCH • Federal Budget • Labor Supply • Petroleum Investment • Congress

  11. Annual Job Growth 2002 Jobs Petroleum 2003: FLAT (0.0 %) 2,600 (2%) • DRIVERS • Oil Price • Investment Climate • Cost Containment • WHAT TO WATCH • Legislature • Congress • Iraq

  12. Annual Job Growth 2002 Jobs Transportation & Utilities 2003: +200 (1.3%) 14,900 (11%) • DRIVERS • Tourism • Air Cargo • Statewide Business & HH • WHAT TO WATCH • Tourism Recovery • World Economy • Telecom Competition

  13. Annual Job Growth 2002 Jobs Manufacturing 2,200 (2%) 2003: FLAT (0%) • DRIVERS • Local Demand • Entrepreneurs • WHAT TO WATCH • ASI Plans

  14. 2003 Job Growth Summary +1,950 Jobs +1.4%

  15. Other Indicators • Population • Unemployment • Personal Income • Average Wage • Inflation

  16. Other Things to Watch • Commuters • In • Out • Self Employed • Seniors • Beyond 2003

  17. Conclusion • Another Year of Job Growth Ahead • Events This Year Will Impact Future Growth • Continued Structural Transformation

  18. 2003 Anchorage Economic Forecast January 15, 2003 Anchorage Alaska Scott Goldsmith Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage ISER

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