Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes
Sponsored Links
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
1 / 160

Data-moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 62 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Data-moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes. NWFSC and SWFSC STAT teams. Context and objectives. Data-moderate = catch and index data Methods (XDB-SRA and exSSS ) already reviewed. 3 Objectives Fit index data Provide stock status (depletion) Provide OFLs for 2015, 2016.

Download Presentation

Data-moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Data-moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

NWFSC and SWFSC STAT teams


Context and objectives

  • Data-moderate = catch and index data

  • Methods (XDB-SRA and exSSS) already reviewed

3 Objectives

Fit index data

Provide stock status (depletion)

Provide OFLs for 2015, 2016


Things to expect

  • First data-moderate STAR panel

    • Base cases are currently fluid

    • Terms of Reference “open”

      • How much to show

      • How to present?

      • Executive summary

  • Many topics germane to “full” assessments

  • Future research topics important

    • How can we improve future applications?


Biology and ecology

Flatfishes

Rockfishes

Nearshore-shelf (<250 m)

English sole

Shelf-slope (up to 500 m)

Rex sole

Nearshore(<120 m)

Shelf-Slope

  • Sharpchin

  • Stripetail

  • Yellowtail

    • North of 40.10

    • South of 40.10

  • Brown

  • China

  • Copper

  • Vermilion

    • North of Pt. C

    • South of Pt. C (“complex”)

Table 1: Life history parameters


Assessment scope

Yellowtail

Sharpchin

China

Vermilion

Copper

Stripetail

Rex sole

English sole

Brown

Yellowtail


Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM)

  • Model set-up

  • Delta approach: models positives (binomial) and magnitude of positives (lognormal or gamma)

  • Extreme Catch Events (ECE): modeled as a mixture distribution

  • Model Interpretation

  • Convergence: Neff > 500

  • Goodness-of-fit: Q-Q plots (ECE or non-ECE?)

  • Model selection: Deviance (lognormal or gamma?)


GLMM survey stratification: Rockfishes

Sharpchin

Stripetail

Yellowtail


GLMM survey stratification: Flatfishes

English sole

Rex sole


GLMM: Model selection


Interpreting trawl survey catchability

“The distance between the trawl doors is three times greater than the distance between the wings on the NWFSC trawl (Figure 2). Since abundance data was expanded to the index of biomass using net wingspread, the survey biomass estimates are three times greater than if door spread was used. The subsequent estimate of q using door spread would therefore be approximately 1, one-third of the value estimated in the assessment. Catchability in a stock assessment is solely used as a scalar and is difficult to interpret. However, the observations of herding presented here illustrate one process that contributes to a larger than expected estimate of q.”

-Bryan et al (in press)


Hook and Line survey


SSC Recommendations and Actions Taken


SSC Recommendations and Actions Taken(cont.)


Extended Depletion-based Stock Reduction Analysis (XDB-SRA)

Extended Simple Stock Synthesis (exSSS)

Common data (Catch, indices)

Selectivity = maturity

Age-structured

Delay-difference

Life history: Two-sex

Life history: Single-sex

VBGF parameters

No growth parameters (no SPR)

R0 prior (MLE;MCMC); depletion prior (AIS)

Depletion prior

Productivity: Steepness (h)

Productivity: FMSY/M; BMSY/B0


Depletion prior: Vulnerability analysis


Depletion prior: Vulnerability analysis

The 2012 review panelrecommended that we use three bins

Unfortunately, the results were not captured in the report

This is an attempt to re-create the analysis

None of the 2013 assessment cases fall in the right-hand bin


Depletion prior: Vulnerability analysis

“Depletion”2000 = 65%: Stripetail, English and Rex sole

Beta distribution peaks at right

“Depletion”2000= 30%:Brown, China, Copper, Vermilions, Sharpchin, Yellowtails

Beta distribution peaks at left

The “uninformative” case is beta, based on all data

Has not been used in any 2013 analyses


Sharpchin rockfish


Sharpchin rockfish: Index fits

All surveys combined

XDB-SRA

Triennial- early

Triennial- late

NWFSC

exSSS


Sharpchin rockfish: Spawning biomass


Sharpchin rockfish: Stock status


Sharpchin rockfish: OFLs


Sharpchin: Index fits with combined Triennial

Triennial

NWFSC


Sharpchin: Combined Triennial


Sharpchin rockfish: SSSvsexSSS


Sharpchin rockfish: exSSS parameter estimates

MLE

AIS


Sharpchin rockfish: exSSS steepness profile


Sharpchin rockfish: exSSS steepness profile


Sharpchin rockfish: exSSS sensitivities


Stripetail rockfish


Stripetail rockfish: Index fits

All surveys combined

XDB-SRA

exSSS


Stripetail rockfish: exSSS results


Yellowtail rockfish North


Yellowtail rockfish (N): Index fits

Triennial

NWFSC

RecFIN

CPFV

XDB-SRA

Tri early

Hake bycatch

RecFIN

NWFSC

exSSS

Tri late

Trawl CPUE

CPFV


Yellowtail rockfish (N): exSSS SB and depletion


Yellowtail (N): Index fits with combined Triennial

Triennial

RecFIN

Hake bycatch

NWFSC

CPFV

Trawl CPUE


Yellowtail (N): Combined Triennial


Yellowtail rockfish N: exSSS results


Yellowtail rockfish South


Yellow rockfish (S): Index fits

RecFIN

cenCal/OR CPFV

XDB-SRA

exSSS


Yellowtail rockfish S: exSSS results


English sole


English sole: Index fits

Triennial- combined

NWFSC

XDB-SRA

Triennial- early

Triennial- late

exSSS


English sole: Spawning biomass


English sole: Stock status


English sole: OFLs


English sole: Index fits with combined Triennial

Triennial

NWFSC


English sole: Combined Triennial


English sole: SSSvsexSSS


English sole: exSSS parameter estimates

MLE

AIS


English sole: exSSS steepness profile


English sole: exSSS steepness profile


English sole: exSSS sensitivities


English sole: exSSSvs2009 assessment


Rex sole


Rex sole: Index fits

All surveys combined

XDB-SRA

NWFSC

Triennial- early

Triennial- late

exSSS


Rex sole: Spawning biomass


Rex sole: Stock status


Rex sole: OFLs


Rex sole: Index fits with combined Triennial

Triennial

NWFSC


Rex sole: Combined Triennial


Rex sole: SSSvsexSSS


Rex sole: exSSS parameter estimates

MLE

AIS


Rex sole: exSSS steepness profile


Rex sole: exSSS steepness profile


Rex sole: exSSS sensitivities


Rex sole: AIS uncertainty


Brown rockfish


Brown rockfish: Index fits

RecFIN

cenCal CPFV

soCal CPFV

XDB-SRA

exSSS


Brown rockfish: Spawning biomass


Brown rockfish: Stock status


Brown rockfish: OFLs


Brown rockfish: SSSvsexSSS


Brown rockfish: MCMC diagnostics


Brown rockfish: exSSS parameter estimates

MLE

AIS

h

h

MCMC

h


Brown rockfish: exSSS steepness profile


Brown rockfish: exSSS steepness profile


Brown rockfish: exSSS sensitivities


China rockfish


China rockfish (coastwide): Index fits

RecFIN

norCal/OR CPFV

cenCal CPFV

XDB-SRA

exSSS


China rockfish: Spawning biomass


China rockfish: Stock status


China rockfish: OFLs


Add XDB-SRA slides here


China rockfish: SSSvsexSSS


China rockfish: exSSS parameter estimates

MLE

AIS


China rockfish: exSSS steepness profile


China rockfish: exSSS steepness profile


China rockfish: exSSS sensitivities


China rockfish (N): Spawning biomass


China rockfish (N): Stock status


China rockfish(N): OFLs


China rockfish(N): Index fits

CPFV

RecFIN


China rockfish(N): exSSS AIS


China rockfish(N): exSSS AIS


China rockfish (C): Spawning biomass


China rockfish (C): Status


China rockfish(C): OFLs


China rockfish(N): Index fits

CPFV

RecFIN


China rockfish(C): exSSS AIS


China rockfish(C): exSSS AIS


Copper rockfish


Copper rockfish: Index fits

soCal CPFV

RecFIN

norCal/OR CPFV

cenCal CPFV

XDB-SRA

exSSS


Copper rockfish: Spawning biomass


Copper rockfish: Stock status


Copper rockfish: OFLs


Copper rockfish: MCMC diagnostics


Copper rockfish: SSSvsexSSS


Copper rockfish: exSSS parameter estimates

MLE

AIS

MCMC


Copper rockfish: exSSS steepness profile


Copper rockfish: exSSS steepness profile


Copper rockfish: exSSS sensitivities


Vermilion rockfish North


Vermilion rockfish North: Index fits

RecFIN

cenCal CPFV

XDB-SRA

exSSS


Vermilion rockfish (N): Spawning biomass


Vermilion rockfish (N): Stock status


Vermilion rockfish (N): OFLs


Vermilion rockfish N: SSSvsexSSS


Vermilion rockfish (N): exSSS parameters

MLE

AIS


Vermilion rockfish (N): exSSS steepness profile


Vermilion rockfish (N): exSSS steepness profile


Vermilion rockfish N: exSSS sensitivities


Vermilion rockfish complex South


Vermilion rockfish South: Index fits

RecFIN

soCal CPFV

Hook-and-line

XDB-SRA

exSSS


Vermilion rockfish (S): Spawning biomass


Vermilion rockfish (S): Stock status


Vermilion rockfish (S): OFLs


Vermilion rockfish S: SSSvsexSSS


Vermilion rockfish (S): exSSS parameters

MLE

AIS


Vermilion rockfish (S): exSSS steepness profile


Vermilion rockfish (S): exSSS steepness profile


Vermilion rockfish S: exSSS sensitivities


exSSS: Adaptive Importance Sampling

  • Create initial parameter sets (N=700)

    • Sex specific M (lognormal), h (beta), and final depletion (beta)

    • Fix parameters in the assessment model and solve for R0 that meets the final depletion value under the assumed dynamics.

  • Sample from the initial parameter set based on the weights:

  • Regenerate parameter vectors (N=700) using a multivariate student’s T distribution based on the drawn parameters

  • Rerun the assessment model with each of the new parameter sets

  • Repeat steps 2-4 until the entropy criteria (e > 0.92)is met:

  • Create a large final sample (N=5000) from the parameter sets that met the entropy criterion.

  • Run the assessment model for the final time with the final parameter sets.


Requests


English sole: gamma models

Triennial late

NWFSC

Triennial early

Non-ECE

ECE


English sole: lognormal models

Triennial late

NWFSC

Triennial early

Non-ECE

ECE


Rex sole: gamma models

Triennial late

NWFSC

Triennial early

Non-ECE

ECE


Rex sole: lognormal models

Triennial late

NWFSC

Triennial early

Non-ECE

ECE


Sharpchin rockfish: gamma models

Triennial late

NWFSC

Triennial early

Non-ECE

ECE


Sharpchin rockfish: lognormal models

Triennial late

NWFSC

Triennial early

Non-ECE

ECE


Stripetail rockfish: gamma models

Triennial late

NWFSC

Triennial early

Non-ECE

ECE


Stripetail rockfish: lognormal models

Triennial late

NWFSC

Triennial early

Non-ECE

ECE


Yellowtail rockfish: lognormal models

Triennial late

NWFSC

Triennial early

Non-ECE

ECE


Yellowtail rockfish: lognormal models

Triennial late

NWFSC

Triennial early

Non-ECE

ECE


Sharpchin: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Sharpchin: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Sharpchin: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Sharpchin: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977

Triennial


Sharpchin: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Yellowtail N: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Yellowtail N: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Yellowtail N: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Yellowtail N: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Yellowtail N: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Rex sole: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Rex sole: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Rex sole: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Rex sole: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Rex sole: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Rex sole: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


  • Login