Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes
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Data-moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes. NWFSC and SWFSC STAT teams. Context and objectives. Data-moderate = catch and index data Methods (XDB-SRA and exSSS ) already reviewed. 3 Objectives Fit index data Provide stock status (depletion) Provide OFLs for 2015, 2016.

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Data-moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

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Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Data-moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

NWFSC and SWFSC STAT teams


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Context and objectives

  • Data-moderate = catch and index data

  • Methods (XDB-SRA and exSSS) already reviewed

3 Objectives

Fit index data

Provide stock status (depletion)

Provide OFLs for 2015, 2016


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Things to expect

  • First data-moderate STAR panel

    • Base cases are currently fluid

    • Terms of Reference “open”

      • How much to show

      • How to present?

      • Executive summary

  • Many topics germane to “full” assessments

  • Future research topics important

    • How can we improve future applications?


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Biology and ecology

Flatfishes

Rockfishes

Nearshore-shelf (<250 m)

English sole

Shelf-slope (up to 500 m)

Rex sole

Nearshore(<120 m)

Shelf-Slope

  • Sharpchin

  • Stripetail

  • Yellowtail

    • North of 40.10

    • South of 40.10

  • Brown

  • China

  • Copper

  • Vermilion

    • North of Pt. C

    • South of Pt. C (“complex”)

Table 1: Life history parameters


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Assessment scope

Yellowtail

Sharpchin

China

Vermilion

Copper

Stripetail

Rex sole

English sole

Brown

Yellowtail


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM)

  • Model set-up

  • Delta approach: models positives (binomial) and magnitude of positives (lognormal or gamma)

  • Extreme Catch Events (ECE): modeled as a mixture distribution

  • Model Interpretation

  • Convergence: Neff > 500

  • Goodness-of-fit: Q-Q plots (ECE or non-ECE?)

  • Model selection: Deviance (lognormal or gamma?)


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

GLMM survey stratification: Rockfishes

Sharpchin

Stripetail

Yellowtail


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

GLMM survey stratification: Flatfishes

English sole

Rex sole


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

GLMM: Model selection


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Interpreting trawl survey catchability

“The distance between the trawl doors is three times greater than the distance between the wings on the NWFSC trawl (Figure 2). Since abundance data was expanded to the index of biomass using net wingspread, the survey biomass estimates are three times greater than if door spread was used. The subsequent estimate of q using door spread would therefore be approximately 1, one-third of the value estimated in the assessment. Catchability in a stock assessment is solely used as a scalar and is difficult to interpret. However, the observations of herding presented here illustrate one process that contributes to a larger than expected estimate of q.”

-Bryan et al (in press)


Hook and line survey

Hook and Line survey


Ssc recommendations and actions taken

SSC Recommendations and Actions Taken


Ssc recommendations and actions taken cont

SSC Recommendations and Actions Taken(cont.)


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Extended Depletion-based Stock Reduction Analysis (XDB-SRA)

Extended Simple Stock Synthesis (exSSS)

Common data (Catch, indices)

Selectivity = maturity

Age-structured

Delay-difference

Life history: Two-sex

Life history: Single-sex

VBGF parameters

No growth parameters (no SPR)

R0 prior (MLE;MCMC); depletion prior (AIS)

Depletion prior

Productivity: Steepness (h)

Productivity: FMSY/M; BMSY/B0


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Depletion prior: Vulnerability analysis


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Depletion prior: Vulnerability analysis

The 2012 review panelrecommended that we use three bins

Unfortunately, the results were not captured in the report

This is an attempt to re-create the analysis

None of the 2013 assessment cases fall in the right-hand bin


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Depletion prior: Vulnerability analysis

“Depletion”2000 = 65%: Stripetail, English and Rex sole

Beta distribution peaks at right

“Depletion”2000= 30%:Brown, China, Copper, Vermilions, Sharpchin, Yellowtails

Beta distribution peaks at left

The “uninformative” case is beta, based on all data

Has not been used in any 2013 analyses


Sharpchin rockfish

Sharpchin rockfish


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Sharpchin rockfish: Index fits

All surveys combined

XDB-SRA

Triennial- early

Triennial- late

NWFSC

exSSS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Sharpchin rockfish: Spawning biomass


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Sharpchin rockfish: Stock status


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Sharpchin rockfish: OFLs


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Sharpchin: Index fits with combined Triennial

Triennial

NWFSC


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Sharpchin: Combined Triennial


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Sharpchin rockfish: SSSvsexSSS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Sharpchin rockfish: exSSS parameter estimates

MLE

AIS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Sharpchin rockfish: exSSS steepness profile


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Sharpchin rockfish: exSSS steepness profile


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Sharpchin rockfish: exSSS sensitivities


Stripetail rockfish

Stripetail rockfish


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Stripetail rockfish: Index fits

All surveys combined

XDB-SRA

exSSS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Stripetail rockfish: exSSS results


Yellowtail rockfish north

Yellowtail rockfish North


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Yellowtail rockfish (N): Index fits

Triennial

NWFSC

RecFIN

CPFV

XDB-SRA

Tri early

Hake bycatch

RecFIN

NWFSC

exSSS

Tri late

Trawl CPUE

CPFV


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Yellowtail rockfish (N): exSSS SB and depletion


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Yellowtail (N): Index fits with combined Triennial

Triennial

RecFIN

Hake bycatch

NWFSC

CPFV

Trawl CPUE


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Yellowtail (N): Combined Triennial


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Yellowtail rockfish N: exSSS results


Yellowtail rockfish south

Yellowtail rockfish South


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Yellow rockfish (S): Index fits

RecFIN

cenCal/OR CPFV

XDB-SRA

exSSS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Yellowtail rockfish S: exSSS results


English sole

English sole


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

English sole: Index fits

Triennial- combined

NWFSC

XDB-SRA

Triennial- early

Triennial- late

exSSS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

English sole: Spawning biomass


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

English sole: Stock status


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

English sole: OFLs


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

English sole: Index fits with combined Triennial

Triennial

NWFSC


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

English sole: Combined Triennial


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

English sole: SSSvsexSSS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

English sole: exSSS parameter estimates

MLE

AIS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

English sole: exSSS steepness profile


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

English sole: exSSS steepness profile


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

English sole: exSSS sensitivities


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

English sole: exSSSvs2009 assessment


Rex sole

Rex sole


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Rex sole: Index fits

All surveys combined

XDB-SRA

NWFSC

Triennial- early

Triennial- late

exSSS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Rex sole: Spawning biomass


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Rex sole: Stock status


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Rex sole: OFLs


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Rex sole: Index fits with combined Triennial

Triennial

NWFSC


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Rex sole: Combined Triennial


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Rex sole: SSSvsexSSS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Rex sole: exSSS parameter estimates

MLE

AIS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Rex sole: exSSS steepness profile


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Rex sole: exSSS steepness profile


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Rex sole: exSSS sensitivities


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Rex sole: AIS uncertainty


Brown rockfish

Brown rockfish


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Brown rockfish: Index fits

RecFIN

cenCal CPFV

soCal CPFV

XDB-SRA

exSSS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Brown rockfish: Spawning biomass


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Brown rockfish: Stock status


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Brown rockfish: OFLs


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Brown rockfish: SSSvsexSSS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Brown rockfish: MCMC diagnostics


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Brown rockfish: exSSS parameter estimates

MLE

AIS

h

h

MCMC

h


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Brown rockfish: exSSS steepness profile


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Brown rockfish: exSSS steepness profile


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Brown rockfish: exSSS sensitivities


China rockfish

China rockfish


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

China rockfish (coastwide): Index fits

RecFIN

norCal/OR CPFV

cenCal CPFV

XDB-SRA

exSSS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

China rockfish: Spawning biomass


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

China rockfish: Stock status


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

China rockfish: OFLs


Add xdb sra slides here

Add XDB-SRA slides here


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

China rockfish: SSSvsexSSS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

China rockfish: exSSS parameter estimates

MLE

AIS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

China rockfish: exSSS steepness profile


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

China rockfish: exSSS steepness profile


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

China rockfish: exSSS sensitivities


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

China rockfish (N): Spawning biomass


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

China rockfish (N): Stock status


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

China rockfish(N): OFLs


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

China rockfish(N): Index fits

CPFV

RecFIN


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

China rockfish(N): exSSS AIS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

China rockfish(N): exSSS AIS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

China rockfish (C): Spawning biomass


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

China rockfish (C): Status


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

China rockfish(C): OFLs


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

China rockfish(N): Index fits

CPFV

RecFIN


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

China rockfish(C): exSSS AIS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

China rockfish(C): exSSS AIS


Copper rockfish

Copper rockfish


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Copper rockfish: Index fits

soCal CPFV

RecFIN

norCal/OR CPFV

cenCal CPFV

XDB-SRA

exSSS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Copper rockfish: Spawning biomass


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Copper rockfish: Stock status


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Copper rockfish: OFLs


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Copper rockfish: MCMC diagnostics


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Copper rockfish: SSSvsexSSS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Copper rockfish: exSSS parameter estimates

MLE

AIS

MCMC


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Copper rockfish: exSSS steepness profile


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Copper rockfish: exSSS steepness profile


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Copper rockfish: exSSS sensitivities


Vermilion rockfish north

Vermilion rockfish North


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Vermilion rockfish North: Index fits

RecFIN

cenCal CPFV

XDB-SRA

exSSS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Vermilion rockfish (N): Spawning biomass


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Vermilion rockfish (N): Stock status


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Vermilion rockfish (N): OFLs


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Vermilion rockfish N: SSSvsexSSS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Vermilion rockfish (N): exSSS parameters

MLE

AIS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Vermilion rockfish (N): exSSS steepness profile


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Vermilion rockfish (N): exSSS steepness profile


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Vermilion rockfish N: exSSS sensitivities


Vermilion rockfish complex south

Vermilion rockfish complex South


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Vermilion rockfish South: Index fits

RecFIN

soCal CPFV

Hook-and-line

XDB-SRA

exSSS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Vermilion rockfish (S): Spawning biomass


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Vermilion rockfish (S): Stock status


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Vermilion rockfish (S): OFLs


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Vermilion rockfish S: SSSvsexSSS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Vermilion rockfish (S): exSSS parameters

MLE

AIS


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Vermilion rockfish (S): exSSS steepness profile


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Vermilion rockfish (S): exSSS steepness profile


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Vermilion rockfish S: exSSS sensitivities


Exsss adaptive importance sampling

exSSS: Adaptive Importance Sampling

  • Create initial parameter sets (N=700)

    • Sex specific M (lognormal), h (beta), and final depletion (beta)

    • Fix parameters in the assessment model and solve for R0 that meets the final depletion value under the assumed dynamics.

  • Sample from the initial parameter set based on the weights:

  • Regenerate parameter vectors (N=700) using a multivariate student’s T distribution based on the drawn parameters

  • Rerun the assessment model with each of the new parameter sets

  • Repeat steps 2-4 until the entropy criteria (e > 0.92)is met:

  • Create a large final sample (N=5000) from the parameter sets that met the entropy criterion.

  • Run the assessment model for the final time with the final parameter sets.


Requests

Requests


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

English sole: gamma models

Triennial late

NWFSC

Triennial early

Non-ECE

ECE


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

English sole: lognormal models

Triennial late

NWFSC

Triennial early

Non-ECE

ECE


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Rex sole: gamma models

Triennial late

NWFSC

Triennial early

Non-ECE

ECE


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Rex sole: lognormal models

Triennial late

NWFSC

Triennial early

Non-ECE

ECE


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Sharpchin rockfish: gamma models

Triennial late

NWFSC

Triennial early

Non-ECE

ECE


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Sharpchin rockfish: lognormal models

Triennial late

NWFSC

Triennial early

Non-ECE

ECE


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Stripetail rockfish: gamma models

Triennial late

NWFSC

Triennial early

Non-ECE

ECE


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Stripetail rockfish: lognormal models

Triennial late

NWFSC

Triennial early

Non-ECE

ECE


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Yellowtail rockfish: lognormal models

Triennial late

NWFSC

Triennial early

Non-ECE

ECE


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Yellowtail rockfish: lognormal models

Triennial late

NWFSC

Triennial early

Non-ECE

ECE


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Sharpchin: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Sharpchin: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Sharpchin: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Sharpchin: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977

Triennial


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Sharpchin: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Yellowtail N: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Yellowtail N: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Yellowtail N: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Yellowtail N: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Yellowtail N: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Rex sole: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Rex sole: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Rex sole: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Rex sole: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Rex sole: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


Data moderate assessments for 9 groundfishes

Rex sole: exSSSAIS combined Tri, no 1977


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