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Crop Situation & Outlook

Gain insights into the current state of U.S. corn and soybean crops, including supply and use data, harvest progress, storage issues, and export trends. Understand the impact of renewable fuel standards and crude oil prices on the market. Explore bio-based market opportunities and input costs. Stay informed on futures trades and economic conditions. Useful resources and expert analysis provided.

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Crop Situation & Outlook

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  1. Crop Situation & Outlook 2009 Ag Outlook and Management Seminars Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA

  3. Source: USDA

  4. U.S. Corn Harvest Progress Source: USDA

  5. Iowa Corn Harvest Progress Source: USDA

  6. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA

  7. Source: USDA

  8. U.S. Soybean Harvest Progress Source: USDA

  9. Iowa Soybean Harvest Progress Source: USDA

  10. Storage Issues Source: Hurburgh and Elmore, ICM News, 10/15/09

  11. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  12. World Soybean Production Source: USDA

  13. Exchange Rates (Jan. 2003 = 1) Source: USDA, ERS

  14. Exports & Advance Sales(1st 11 weeks of marketing year) Source: USDA, FAS

  15. 2009 U.S. Corn Exports Source: USDA, FAS

  16. 2009 U.S. Soybean Exports Source: USDA, FAS

  17. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) 50% GHG Emission Reduction 60% GHG Emission Reduction 20% GHG Emission Reduction If construction started after Dec. 2007

  18. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  19. Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

  20. Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA, NYMEX

  21. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  22. Dept. of Energy Projections Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2009

  23. Draft Lifecycle GHG Reductions Source: EPA, May 2009

  24. Bio-based Market Opportunities Source: Informa Economics, Biobased Multi-Client Study, March 2006

  25. Biobased Pathways Source: USDA, 2008, U.S. Biobased Products: Market Potential and Projections Through 2025

  26. Outside Influences (Jan. 2007 = 1)

  27. Corn 1990 - 2006

  28. Corn

  29. Soybeans

  30. Corn Futures Trade Source: CFTC

  31. Soybean Futures Trade Source: CFTC

  32. Ratio: Nov. 2010 Soy/Dec. 2010 Corn Source: CBOT

  33. Input Costs Source: USDA, Agricultural Prices, Oct. 30, 2009

  34. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

  35. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

  36. Thoughts for 2009 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Recession: Are we done yet? • Projected economic recovery is a major key for crop prices for the 2009 marketing year • Continued weakness in the dollar helping exports • Most important ag. statistics: Harvest progress, crop production, feed demand • USDA is indicating 2009 season-average prices in the neighborhood of $3.55 for corn and $9.20 for soybeans • Futures Nov. 19: Corn $3.79, Soy $9.85 • 2010/11 based on futures Nov. 19: Corn $4.21, Soy $9.80

  37. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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