Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources
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Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources. Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington for presentation at Fifth IHP/IAHS George Kovacs Colloquium UNESCO, Paris 2 June 2000. Outline of this talk.

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Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

University of Washington

for presentation at

Fifth IHP/IAHS George Kovacs Colloquium

UNESCO, Paris

2 June 2000


Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

Outline of this talk


Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

Modeling the Connections Between Climate and Streamflow


Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

Currently Modeled US Basins

1 Northwest5 Rio Grande10 Upper Mississippi

2 California6 Missouri11 Lower Mississippi

3 Great Basin7 Arkansas-Red12 Ohio

4 Colorado8 Gulf13 East Coast

9 Great Lakes


Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

Schematic for Forecasting Experiments Using

Resampled Observed Data

Select Met Data Ensemble from

Historic Record Associated with

Forecast Climate Category

Long-Lead

Climate

Forecast

ENSO

Run Initialized

Hydrologic Model

PDO

Ensemble Streamflow

Forecast


Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

Columbia PDO Effects

Columbia ENSO Effects

PDO/ENSO Effects


Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

Chester Morse PDO Effects

Chester Morse ENSO Effects

PDO/ENSO Effects


Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

Time Line for 12-month Lead Time Retrospective Forecasts

Climate

Forecast

Estimated

Initial Conditions

Forecast

Ensemble

Lead time = 12 months


Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

Columbia River Streamflow Forecast at The Dalles for 2001

Highest Simulation (1948-1997)

Cool PDO/ENSO Neut.

Ensemble

Lowest Simulation (1948-1997)


Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

Columbia River Streamflow Forecast at The Dalles for 2000

Cool PDO/Cool ENSO

Ensemble


Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

Overview of Streamflow Forecasting Schemes

Using Climate Models

Global Climate

Models

Water

Resources

Models

Hydrology

Models

streamflow

Temp.

Precip.

wind

downscaling

Regional Climate

Models

water demand


Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

Constructing the Hydrology Model Driving Data

Using a Normal SST Nov-Apr Climate Forecast

MM5 Sim

24 MM5

Forecasts

MM5 Sim

MM5 Sim

MM5 Sim

MM5 Sim

MM5 Sim

MM5 Sim

MM5 Sim

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

MM5 Sim

MM5 Sim

MM5 Sim

MM5 Sim

MM5 Sim

MM5 Sim

. . .

1960

. . .

Oct

May

Jun

Jul

Repeating 1960 Observed Temp and Precip Time Series

with Nov-April Replaced by MM5 Forecasts


Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

Test Simulations for the Columbia River at The Dalles

Control

(observed Nov-Apr’s)

RCM

(raw climate simulations

for Nov-Apr’s)


Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

Simple Bias Correction Used in MM5 Experiments

(Nov-Mar Ensembles inserted in repeating 1960)

Mean

Variance


Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

Quantile Mapping Bias Correction


Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

Kanawha River Basin Simulations Using

Observed Data and Bias Corrected GCM Output

Mean

Observations

Bias-Corrected GCM

Variance


Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

Downscaled GSM forecast ensembles compared to

historical climatological bounds


Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

Current Streamflow Forecast Basins

1 Ohio 3 Delaware 4 Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa

2 Potomac 5 Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint


Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

Current Streamflow Forecast Basins


Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

Climate

Scenarios

Adjustments

To Observed

Meteorology

Performance

Measures

Transient GCM Simulations for Increasing CO2 and Aerosols

Delta

Precip,

Temp

Reliability

of System

Objectives

Reservoir

Model (ColSim)

Hydrologic

Model (VIC)

DamReleases,

Regulated

Streamflow

Natural

Streamflow


Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

2025


Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

2045


Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

ColSim Reliability of System Objectives


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