Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources
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Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources. Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington for presentation at Fifth IHP/IAHS George Kovacs Colloquium UNESCO, Paris 2 June 2000. Outline of this talk.

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Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources

Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

University of Washington

for presentation at

Fifth IHP/IAHS George Kovacs Colloquium

UNESCO, Paris

2 June 2000




Currently Modeled US Basins resources

1 Northwest 5 Rio Grande 10 Upper Mississippi

2 California 6 Missouri 11 Lower Mississippi

3 Great Basin 7 Arkansas-Red 12 Ohio

4 Colorado 8 Gulf 13 East Coast

9 Great Lakes


Schematic for Forecasting Experiments Using resources

Resampled Observed Data

Select Met Data Ensemble from

Historic Record Associated with

Forecast Climate Category

Long-Lead

Climate

Forecast

ENSO

Run Initialized

Hydrologic Model

PDO

Ensemble Streamflow

Forecast


Columbia PDO Effects resources

Columbia ENSO Effects

PDO/ENSO Effects


Chester Morse PDO Effects resources

Chester Morse ENSO Effects

PDO/ENSO Effects


Time Line for 12-month Lead Time Retrospective Forecasts resources

Climate

Forecast

Estimated

Initial Conditions

Forecast

Ensemble

Lead time = 12 months


Columbia River Streamflow Forecast at The Dalles for 2001 resources

Highest Simulation (1948-1997)

Cool PDO/ENSO Neut.

Ensemble

Lowest Simulation (1948-1997)


Columbia River Streamflow Forecast at The Dalles for 2000 resources

Cool PDO/Cool ENSO

Ensemble


Overview of Streamflow Forecasting Schemes resources

Using Climate Models

Global Climate

Models

Water

Resources

Models

Hydrology

Models

streamflow

Temp.

Precip.

wind

downscaling

Regional Climate

Models

water demand


Constructing the Hydrology Model Driving Data resources

Using a Normal SST Nov-Apr Climate Forecast

MM5 Sim

24 MM5

Forecasts

MM5 Sim

MM5 Sim

MM5 Sim

MM5 Sim

MM5 Sim

MM5 Sim

MM5 Sim

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

MM5 Sim

MM5 Sim

MM5 Sim

MM5 Sim

MM5 Sim

MM5 Sim

. . .

1960

. . .

Oct

May

Jun

Jul

Repeating 1960 Observed Temp and Precip Time Series

with Nov-April Replaced by MM5 Forecasts


Test Simulations for the Columbia River at The Dalles resources

Control

(observed Nov-Apr’s)

RCM

(raw climate simulations

for Nov-Apr’s)


Simple Bias Correction Used in MM5 Experiments resources

(Nov-Mar Ensembles inserted in repeating 1960)

Mean

Variance



Kanawha River Basin Simulations Using resources

Observed Data and Bias Corrected GCM Output

Mean

Observations

Bias-Corrected GCM

Variance


Downscaled GSM forecast ensembles compared to resources

historical climatological bounds


Current Streamflow Forecast Basins resources

1 Ohio 3 Delaware 4 Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa

2 Potomac 5 Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint



Climate resources

Scenarios

Adjustments

To Observed

Meteorology

Performance

Measures

Transient GCM Simulations for Increasing CO2 and Aerosols

Delta

Precip,

Temp

Reliability

of System

Objectives

Reservoir

Model (ColSim)

Hydrologic

Model (VIC)

DamReleases,

Regulated

Streamflow

Natural

Streamflow


2025 resources


2045 resources



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