Latin america in the american age
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Latin America in the American Age. The Dawn of the American Age Geography, Demography and Shale energy In the American Orbit Chile, Peru, Colombia and Venezuela Brazil’s Day Ends The Rise of Mexico… …and The North American Drug War. Peter Zeihan

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Latin America in the American Age

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Latin america in the american age

Latin America in the American Age

  • The Dawn of the American Age

    • Geography, Demographyand Shale energy

  • In the American Orbit

    • Chile, Peru, Colombia and Venezuela

  • Brazil’s Day Ends

  • The Rise of Mexico… …and The North American Drug War

Peter Zeihan

Association of American Manufacturers

November 4


Point of comparison the american geography

Point of Comparison:The American Geography

Integrated network over gigantic piece of useable land

Unified, capital-rich polity

Two oceans

Massive insulation

Direct access to both trading basins

Largest market

Largest ag producer/exporter

Largest military


Latin america in the american age

Evolving Demography


Shale acceptance

Shale:Acceptance

  • Groundwater contamination (porous v non)

  • The “toxicity” issue is about to vanish

  • Even without “approval” is already remaking the system


Brazil s problem

and the Fallout

Brazil’s Problem…

  • Extremely-capital intensive, extremely-capital poor

  • Paraguay and Uruguay have nowhere to turn

  • Argentina needs a pants-kick


The south american geography

The SouthAmerican Geography

  • Sharp regional breaks

  • Infrastructure and economies of scale problematic

  • Needs cheap credit and strong commodity markets (but not as cheap/strong as Brazil!)

5500m

3500m


In america s orbit colombia and venezuela

In America’s Orbit:Colombia andVenezuela

  • Colombia:

    • Still a pocket country, but one w/ transport options (and a market!)

  • Venezuela:

    • One ideological mistake is wrecking the oil sector


The first mexican problem a very hostile geography

The First (Mexican) Problem:A Very Hostile Geography

No rivers, few ports

Low capital generation

Mountainous, disassociated territories

No infrastructure EcoS

Will never be a strong state


The second mexican american problem an economic miracle not to be missed

The Second (Mexican-American) “Problem”:An Economic Miracle Not to Be Missed

China is losing the ability to subsidize its competitiveness

Remember U.S. shale

Young demographics generate growth (and cheap labor)

Drug war makes Mexican labor more attractive


The third mexican american problem not a normal border

The Fourth (American) Problem: America’s only Ghettoized Community

The Third (Mexican-American) Problem: Not a Normal Border

2013

  • 0.7t cu feet of natgas

  • $500b of bilateral trade

  • 350m legal border crossings

2020

  • 3t cu feet of natgas

  • $650b of bilateral trade

  • 500m legal border crossings


The north american drug war

The North American Drug War

From Miami Vice to cartels

Supply chains


National stability 2020 2040

National Stability:2020-2040


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