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A National Grid Fit For The Future

A National Grid Fit For The Future. Chris J Murray. Newton Institute - 26 th May 2010. UK and US. Electricity and Gas. England and Wales transmission owner. Transmission and Distribution. National Grid. National system operator.

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A National Grid Fit For The Future

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  1. A National Grid Fit For The Future Chris J Murray. Newton Institute - 26th May 2010

  2. UK and US Electricity and Gas England and Wales transmission owner Transmission and Distribution National Grid National system operator

  3. The energy world is changing – utilities playing a critical role in a sustainable future Traditional energy market Today’s evolving market • Distributed generation • Energy efficiency • Infrastructure enhancement • Smart grid • Demand management • Wind sources • Solar sources • Clean technology • Energy storage Our role is being redefined

  4. Sustainability Affordability Climate change is driving an energy revolution Security of supply

  5. Impact of UK generation closures on plant margin* * Margin refers to the difference between the total generation capacity and total demand.

  6. Best view of new UK generation * Margin refers to the difference between the total generation capacity and total demand.

  7. The changing generation mix

  8. Existing / potential interconnectors Norway Existing Under construction Northern Ireland Possible future Ireland Netherlands Belgium France France

  9. Offshore wind • 390MW currently connected • 8,806MW contracted for future connection • Developer information provided indicates 14.3GW of Offshore Renewables by end of 2020 More to do!

  10. Focus on Scotland Driven by onshore renewables Focus on East Coast Driven by offshore renewables / nuclear Focus on South & West Driven by nuclear/wind UK Strategic investment (electricity) £4.7bn onshore investment identified

  11. UKCS Norway LNG Continent Demand inc exports Where’s the UK’s gas coming from? 120 Actual Forecast 100 80 60 bcm / year 40 20 0 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 20/21

  12. existing network future potential investment recent construction Terminal LNG importation Grain LNG UK gas transmission load related investment West of Shetland New Norway St Fergus Langeled Teesside Barrow Easington New southern basin developments Theddlethorpe Bacton New continental link Milford Haven

  13. Potential gas world……. In 2020 - 80% of gas is imported and over 50% of electricity relies on gas Capacity far exceeds demand Will new storage be built? Continent LNG Norwegian UKCS • How confident are we that the molecules will turn up? • What investment is required for security of supply

  14. Scotland Teesside Humber Liverpool Bay Grain LNG What does this mean for gas transmission? Carbon Cap Storage Gas transportation West of Shetland New Norway St Fergus Future investment Recent investment Terminal construction LNG importation Langeled Teesside New southern basindevelopments Barrow Easington Theddlethorpe New continental link Bacton Milford Haven Network flexibility becomes increasingly important Its not just electricity investment…

  15. Balancing the UK networks 2010 • Demand is a given • Second by second balancing achieved by flexing generation Future • Dynamic demand • Smart meters • Storage • Flexing generation Electricity 2010 • Major flows from UKCS & Norway Future • Less UKCS • Variable flows from Norway, European interconnectors & LNG Gas

  16. But… we have a skills gap to manage…

  17. Transition to a low carbon economy 2020 EU Targets Thinking about 2050 Decline of UKCS Developing future networks Ageing Assets Changing economic climate Planning + Strategic Investment Security of supply Our Challenges and Opportunities Affordability

  18. Thank you

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