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Forecasting systems

Forecasting systems. WMO Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme David Burridge. Hurricane Katrina. Strike probability map for hurricane Katrina. After crossing Florida the tracks of the hurricane were predicted with a high degree of consistency.

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Forecasting systems

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  1. Forecasting systems WMO Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme David Burridge

  2. Hurricane Katrina Strike probability map for hurricane Katrina. After crossing Florida the tracks of the hurricane were predicted with a high degree of consistency.

  3. Algerian Flood November 2001 :737 Dead “No warning to the population was raised and no measure taken to reduce the impact of the disaster, even though the meteorological office in Algiers has announced two days before that a strong storm will arrive in Algeria on Friday night …”

  4. 2003 European heat wave may have killed 20,000 Timely and accurate forecast Poor emergency preparedness

  5. THORPEX - A WMO Sponsored Research Programme designed to • To provide the research underpinning the WMO strategy to reduce by 50 per cent over the decade 2010-2019 the number of fatalities caused by meteorological, hydrological and climate related natural disasters compared with the ten-year average fatalities of 1995-2004. • To increase the effectiveness of advanced warnings of high impact weather globally. • To enable governments, societies and economic sectors to realise fully the benefit of weather and climate related information in critical decision-making. • To demonstrate ways to increase cooperation and collaboration between National Meteorological Services to deliver the benefits of new global earth observations, advanced communications, and new global forecasting systems to all societies.

  6. Global Interactive Forecast System using the THORPEX INTERACTIVE GLOBAL GRAND ENSEMBLE (TIGGE) – real-time research including Key GEO tasks Phase 1 – Ensembles of global forecasts accessible through one of three Centres (CMA, ECMWF & NCAR) FUNDED Phase 2 – Distributed archives providing regional products

  7. Lothar - T+42 hour Rerun of operational EPS) 14 EPS members with greater intensity storms than verification

  8. LONG-RANGE DESERT DUST TRANSPORT Global process with local origins • Saharan dust storm, 2001 Monitoring • satellites • lidars • sunphotometers • aircraft • surface observatories dust • TOMS global composite aerosol index • Dust driven by the atmosphere • Predicted dust vs. lidar Hazardous effects • Human health:Asthma, lung problems • Human and animal health: for example, valley fever spores carried by dust Predicting • Dust storm in China: Beijing, 17 April 2006 • NASA MODIS Aqua • Routine model forecast • • Aviation: Low visibility and mechanical risk • Ecology: Saharan dust-borne herbicides affect Caribbean coral mortality • • Beijing • Beijing

  9. Ozone and aerosols are essential climate and weather variables& present multi-hazards Beijing Roof CMA March 20 2002 DUST POLLUTION FIRES OZONE HOLE & UV Global Aerosol Optical Depth

  10. Modulates activity Seasonal Cycle e.g. extratropical effects, continentality Diurnal Cycle MJO Suppressed Phase? Upscale organisation? Timer? Synoptic waves WWBs MJO El Nino Mesoscale systems Modulates Modulates activity? Excites ocean Kelvin Waves 100’s km 1000’s km 1-100 km 10,000’s km Days Hours Weeks Months Interactions between space and time scales of tropical convection: Linking THORPEX and WCRP

  11. DecisionMakers Early Warning Systems, Advice, … WEATHER & CLIMATE PREDICTION & ITS IMPACTS Short and Medium Range Seasonal-Interannual Decadal Climate Change Models & Observations IMPACTS Water Resources Land Surfaces Ocean Multi-disciplinary research Public Health Numerical forecasts Food security Socio-Economy Aerosols Chemistry

  12. Key issues to support multi-hazard prediction • The science • Encourage the NWP & Climate communities to work more closely together to develop similar “looking” numerical products • Development of distributed systems for the provision of global and regional numerical forecasts from the short to seasonal time-ranges • Increased support for multi-disciplinary research to translate forecasts into impact prediction • Deliver the warnings

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