South Africa

1. South Africa • Population: 42,718,530 • Estimated population growth rate: -0.25% (2004 est.) • land area total: 1,219,912 sq km • slightly less than twice the size of Texas • Republic government

2. Economy • Economy overview: South Africa is a middle-income • Has an abundant supply of natural resources • well-developed financial, legal, communications, energy, and transport sectors • modern infrastructure --efficient distribution of goods to major urban centers • growth has not been strong enough to lower South Africa's high unemployment rate • economic problems remain from the apartheid era, especially poverty and lack of economic empowerment among the disadvantaged groups. • High crime and HIV/AIDS infection rates also deter investment • GDP real growth rate: 1.9% (2003 est.) • GDP per capita: purchasing power parity- $10,700 (2003 est.) • GDP composition by sector: agriculture 3.8%, industry 31%, services 65.2% (2003) • Labor force by occupation: agriculture 30%, industry 25%, services 45% (1999 est.) • Unemployment rate: 31% (2003 est.) • Population below the poverty line: 50% (2000 est) • Household income or consumption by percentage share: lowest 10%: 1.1% highest 10%: 45.9% (1994)

3. South Africa’s Natural Characteristics • Climate: mostly semiarid; subtropical along east coast • Terrain: vast interior plateau rimmed by rugged hills and narrow coastal plane • Land use: arable land 12.08% permanent crops: 0.79% other: 87.13% (2001) • Natural Hazards: prolonged droughts • Environmental Isues: lack of rivers or lakes, requires extensive water conservation and control measures; growth in water usage outpacing supply; water & air pollution

4. Southern Africa vs. NCWE Africa • Africa has the lowest carbon emissions from fossil fuels than any other continent • Africa makes up 3% of world emissions. 3.8% of world coal consumption, 3.4% of oil, 2.4% natural gas, 2.4% of hydroelectricity • Emissions are growing rapidly, but from a very small base • Since 1980, real GDP has increased much faster in southern Africa than in all other areas • “Since 1970, South Africa and Egypt have consumed the most energy per dollar of GDP among major energy consumers in Africa” • per capita commercial energy consumption and energy-related carbon emissions tend to be highest in South Africa because of reliance on coal (carbon intensive) • Energy intensity and per capita energy consumption and carbon emissions are also highest in africa • South Africa accounts for half of Africa’s energy-related carbon emmissions • 99% coal output is in southern Africa, 96% from South Africa • Southern Africa relies heavily on coal (68%), the rest of Africa relies more on oil (60%) • Natural gas is produced in N Africa, Oil in NWCS Africa • South Africa is the only country with nuclear power production, only accounts for 1% of Africa’s energy demand • South Africa has a relatively high energy intensity compared to other African countries because it is more industrialized • Southern Africa is a net exporter of coal and oil • In Africa “in 1997, five countries (South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria, and Libya) accounted for 78% of all energy consumption.”

5. Emissions • Need further research in industrial & transportation sectors for possible CDM projects • Waste management & mining have not been investigated yet • 1990 347.3 MtCO2 1994 379.8 MtCO2 • CO2 accounts for 80% of total GHG emissions, mostly from the energy sector • High energy intensity of the South African economy • Emissions come from: high energy extraction & processing of minerals, reliance on coal-fired generation of electricity, coal-to-oil conversion • Methane emissions from agriculture (livestock largest contributor), energy, and waste

6. South Africa’s Position • Ratify the Kyoto Protocol • Promote sustainable development and the implementation of policies that mitigate climate change from anthropogenic sources • “National sustainable strategies should integrate more fully climate change objectives in key areas such as water, energy, health, agriculture and biodiversity.” • Recognize common but differentiated responsibility and “should continue to advance their responsibilities under the Convention.” • Adaptation is a high priority. Developing countries need capacity-building and a strengthening of the Marrakech Accord • Increased technology transfer through “concrete projects” • “Access should be improved to reliable, affordable, economically viable, socially acceptable and environmentally sound energy services and resources.” • Need to diversify energy supply by developing cleaner, more efficient and cost-effective energy technologies, including fossil-fuels technologies and renewable energy.” According to Moosa, the Minister okf Environmental Affairs and Tourism, “…stronger mitigation efforts (are needed) in the North to reduce the impacts and the cost of adaptation in the South.” “…energy-oriented solutions ought to be central to the long-term sustainability of greenhouse-gas stabilisation.”

7. Government on Climate Change • National Climate Change Department: Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism • UNFCCC ratified 1997, Kyoto Protocol ratified July 2002, member of G77 • Climate Change Response Strategy (approved Sept. 2004 by cabinet, launchedOct. 2004) • Framework on how South Africa will deal with climate change • 2005/6 will investigate sector-specific options, concentrating on developing sector specific adaptation and mitigation plans. • Public awareness, climate change schools competitions since 2002 gr • Government Committee on Climate Change, GCCC • Advises the directorate of climate change and ozone layer protection on climate change responsibilites under the KP and UNFCC • Made up of people from all different departments, including agriculture, foreign affars, health, trade and industry, transport, local and provincial government… • National Committee on Climate Change, NCCC • Advises the Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism on climate change responsibilities under the KP and UNFCCC • Create an agenda/timetable, make recommendations after considering concerns of stakeholders, design and participate in national climate change policy and implementation, propose studies on CC, communicate developments, make subcommittees, assist capacity building and technology transfer • Carbon sinks through afforestation, net uptake of CO2 from afforestation is increasing • Action Plan of the Environment Initiative of the New partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) July 2003— “promotes Africa’s sustainabel development and assist the regions to confront its short term economic growth challenges without losing sight of the long-term environmental, poverty eradication and social development imperatives.” includes several environmental programs including one on climate change. Policy by the African Union (AU)

8. Emissions projections • If status quo maintained in energy usage & production methods • “business as usual”

9. CDM Opportunity • At a reasonable cost, emissions reductions projects can reduce 5% of the current GHG emissions, according to mitigation studies. • Better opportunity for institutional investors such as the World Bank’s Prototype Carbon Fund • More detailed investigation into specific projects would reveal more possible options for emission reductions • Picture (right) is a list of some possible CDM projects that are possible mitigation options and the costs/ton CO2 have been researched. (but wether switching to nuclear energy for electricity generation is an acceptable project is questionable and there is the question of additionality and how different projects affect the effectiveness of others is debatable) • South Africa will be a small player in the market for CDM and projects will have to be supplied at a relatively lower price compared to China or India.

10. Abatement Costs for CDM • Graphed below are the costs relative to the MtCO2 abated/yr of a number of CDM projects, not including questionable ones such as those using nuclear energy • For successful CDM projects, you need: • policy and regulation that supports national development, • capacity building activities- awareness, technology, institutions & management, industrial support, “labor and government to create an ‘enabling environment’ for CDM projects” • institutions for management and efficiency • Active government support

11. Bibliograph • http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/ESSD/envext.nsf/46ByDocName/bSouthAfricabSouthAfricanNationalStrategyStudyontheCleanDevelopmentMechanismExecutiveSummary/$FILE/SouthAfricanNSSontheCDM2002execsummary.pdf • http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/archives/africa/chapter2.html • http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/archives/africa/africa.html • http://unfccc.int/2860.php • http://www.environment.gov.za • http://www.iisd.org • http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/