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June 1 -- NOVEMBER 30, 2011

2011 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON THE FORECAST FOR AN ACTIVE SEASON WITH MORE LATE SEASON STORMS AND GREATER IMPACTS ON USA COASTS THAN IN 2010 IS STILL PLAUSIBLE. Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction . June 1 -- NOVEMBER 30, 2011. 2011 FORECAST. 2011 FORECAST.

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June 1 -- NOVEMBER 30, 2011

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  1. 2011 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON THE FORECAST FOR AN ACTIVE SEASON WITH MORE LATE SEASON STORMS AND GREATER IMPACTS ON USA COASTS THAN IN 2010 IS STILL PLAUSIBLE Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction June 1 -- NOVEMBER 30, 2011

  2. 2011 FORECAST

  3. 2011 FORECAST

  4. AREAS OF CONCERN SHIFT AS THE SEASON PROGRESSES • EARLY SEASON: Western Gulf of Mexico and the southern portion of the Caribbean [with USA impacts along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines.] • MID-TO-LATE SEASON: The eastern Gulf and Caribbean [with USA and Canadian impacts from the Florida Peninsula to the Carolinas, New England, and the Maratimes.]

  5. CONTRIBUTING PHYSICAL FACTORS • The orientation and position of the Azores and Bermuda high-pressure areas in the Atlantic. • The future state of the ongoing La Niña. [La Niña is starting to weaken, which could have an impact on the westerly wind component in the tropical Atlantic as well as the Caribbean.]

  6. CONTRIBUTING PHYSICAL FACTORS • The frequency and amount of dust that accompanies disturbances moving off the African coast. [The presence of dust indicates dry air, which can hinder tropical development in the eastern Atlantic.]

  7. CONTRIBUTING PHYSICAL FACTORS • A phenomenon known as Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) [Currently, the sea surface temperature is in the warm phase, and warm water is "hurricane fuel.]

  8. STORM TRACKS OF 2011’s FIRST 9 STORMS: ARLENE -- IRENE

  9. 2011’s FIRST STORM TROPICAL STORM ARLENE JUNE 30TH

  10. 2011’S TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FIRST SEVERE WINDSTORM OF ATLANTIC -- GULF OF MEXICO BASIN STRIKES VERACRUZ STATE, MEXICO Thursday, June 30, 2011

  11. ARLENE’S PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS • Arlene had an estimated minimum central pressure of 993 mb and maximum sustained winds of 100 kph (65 mph). • Tropical storm force winds and rain bands extended outward up to 330 km (205 miles) from the eye.

  12. ARLENE MADE LANDFALL NEAR CABO ROJO:JUNE 30, 2011

  13. ARLENE’S PHYSICAL EFFECTS • Tropical storm force winds and rain bands extended outward for up to 330 km (205 miles) from the eye.

  14. ARLENE’S PHYSICAL EFFECTS • Arlene’s storm surge raised water levels by as much as 1/3 to 1 m (1 to 3 feet) along the immediate coast near and to the north of Cabo Rojo. • Arlene generated 20 cm (8 inches) of rain, which was mostly welcome due to the dry conditions, even though it caused minor flooding and triggered 6 landslides.

  15. PREPARATION FOR ARLENE • Having anticipated flooding, officials in the states of Veracruz, Tamaulipas and San Luis Potosi and closed schools, mobilized emergency medical units and prepared evacuation shelters.

  16. DEATHS • Government officials reported 22 deaths.

  17. 2011’s SECOND STORM TROPICAL STORM BRET JULY 26TH

  18. 2005’S TROPICAL STORM BRET Bret moved ashore within 24 hours of forming, and dissipated shortly thereafter in Veracruz, Mexico JUNE 28TH, 2005

  19. 2011’s THIRD STORM TROPICAL STORM CINDY JUNE 26TH

  20. 2005’S CAT 1 HURRICANE CINDY Cindy initially formed on July 3rd just east of the Yucatan Peninsula; It made landfall twice, Mexico and Louisiana JULY 3RD , 2005

  21. 2011’s BRET AND CINDY DIED IN THE ATLANTIC

  22. 2011’s FOURTH STORM TROPICAL STORM DON JUNE 27TH

  23. 2011’s TROPICAL STORM DON (still developing)

  24. Tropical Storm Don headed across the Gulf towards the oil-rich Texas coast with a Friday (July 29th) arrival.

  25. 2011’s TROPICAL STORM DON (approaching landfall)

  26. TROPICAL STORM DON’S RAIN BROUGHT SOME, BUT NOT ENOUGH, RELIEF TO DROUGHT-STRICKEN TEXAS

  27. PRECURSSOR TO EMILY: JULY 31st

  28. 2011’s FIFTH STORM TROPICAL STORM EMILY AUGUST 1, 2011

  29. EMILY’S PREDICTED PATH OF AUGUST 1st DID NOT HAPPEN

  30. FLORIDA WAS SPARED: EMILY: DIED IN ATLANTIC: AUGUST 6st

  31. Dominican Republic: The approaching storm forced evacuations to avoid flooding, cancellation of flights, and closure of government offices.

  32. EMILY ARRIVED IN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH 80 KPH WIND AND RAIN: AUGUST 4

  33. HAITI: 600,000 LIVING IN TENT CITIES AFTER THE 2010 EARTHQUAKE COULD NOT TAKE EVEN THE MOST BASIC PRECAUTIONS

  34. Emily caused floods and damaged hundreds of homes in HAITI.

  35. Haiti, which has had an ongoing cholera problem since the January 19, 2010 earthquake faced even greater problems after Emily’s heavy rainfall.

  36. Tropical Storm Emily broke apart and became a tropical depression on August 6th-- no longer a threat to Florida.

  37. 2011’s SIXTH STORM TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN AUGUST 13TH

  38. TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN: 450 MILES N-NE OF BERMUDA; AUGUST 13rd

  39. 2011’s SEVENTH STORM TROPICAL STORM GERT AUGUST 14th

  40. TROPICAL STORM GERT FORMED NEAR BERMUDA ON AUGUST 15 AND DIED

  41. Monday, August 15, 2011 marked the start of what is sometimes called the Cape Verde season, when the most powerful storms tend to be spawned off the coast of West Africa.

  42. 2011’s EIGHTH STORM TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DEVELOPING AS OF AUGUST 17th

  43. TROPICAL STORM HARVEY’S PATH ENDED ON AUGUST 22ND

  44. 2011’s NINTH STORM TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORMED ON AUGUST 20th DEVELOPED INTO FIRST HURRICANE OF SEASON ON AUGUST 22nd

  45. TROPICAL STORM IRENE ON AUGUST 21st : TO BE FIRST HURRICANE OF 2011

  46. TROPICAL STORM IRENE BECOMES FIRST HURRICANE OF 2011: AUG 22

  47. ON AUGUST 22, IRENE--- • ---caused loss of power for 1 million people, loss of water for 100,000 people, downed trees, damaged homes, forced evacuations and school and office closures in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, but no deaths,

  48. (Continued) ON AUGUST 22, IRENE--- • ---- posed an immediate threat to the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic for 15 hours, but…

  49. (Continued) ON AUGUST 22, IRENE--- • --- missed Haiti where 600,000 refugees are still living in tents, but exacerbated flooding and mudslides in the northern region where past storms have killed thousands, and • --- worsened conditions for fighting the cholera epidemic that has already killed some 6,000 people.

  50. FLOODING: NAGUABO, PR; AUG 22

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